Junk science: "Since groupthink is so pervasive, any citations that confirm academics’ left-wing biases are rarely double-checked. And so junk piles upon junk." GIGO. Via Instapundit.
The Belarus autocrat Lukashenko is ill and out of sight. If he can't rule--or his supporters can't prop him up and rule through him--does that mean Russia takes over and annexes Belarus? Or does it mean the opposition rallies people to eject the regime and Russia?
Germany announces $3 billion military aid package to Ukraine that "includes 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 30 Leopard 1 tanks, 15 Gepard antiaircraft tanks, 200 reconnaissance drones, four additional Iris-T antiaircraft systems including ammunition, additional artillery ammunition and more than 200 armored combat and logistics vehicles."
Biden conducted another one of his two-minute hates against a shadowy threat that lurks out there. Armed. Watching. Waiting under rocks. And ready to strike. Oddly, the widespread threat didn't unleash the ultra violence on January 6, 2021, when it had the chance. But they're crafty that way. Planning. Trying to figure out how many of their members are federal agents or informers. Waiting for just one more case of MREs, another 1,000 rounds of ammo, and a gross of MyPillows to arrive in the mail. Until then, they let criminals and leftists get all the violence action to destroy our cities. Lulling us. But the threat never goes away. We clearly can't let down our guard. These left-wing clowns--I mean, not all are just senile--really believe this fake charge. Including Biden's repetition of the "Fine people hoax." And also, with equally intense indignation, they'd never rig an election to stop that evil from seizing power.
It seems to me that Remainers trying to help the EU take over Britain again is behind efforts to blame Brexit for economic problems.
Wait.What? "The U.S. military is working with allies to send more ships and aircraft to the Middle East as Iran escalates its seizures of merchant tankers, the National Security Council announced Friday." I thought China's brilliant Saudi-Iranian deal quieted the region down to make oil exports safe.
FFS: "The Biden administration plans to continue nuclear negotiations with Iran despite the nation's crackdown on protesters who have demonstrated in recent days following the death of a woman in police custody." Because of course that's their plan: "Democrats bizarrely love Iran and think a new nuclear deal and a box of candy will turn them into a responsible regional power. And the Biden administration will twist reality again to get that deal restored."
The Ukrainians believe the Leopard I will be sufficient to smash up Russian tanks. Which is interesting given its low armor protection. Of course, even Ukraine's old Soviet models with thicker armor can be destroyed by the Russian tanks. Crew skill and the quality of leadership in employing the tanks count the most. If Ukraine's experience is that their own Soviet tanks can beat the Russians, Leopard I's with better optics for shooting should do just fine.
Army soldiers are under stress because of a "breakneck operational tempo"? What? We have far fewer brigades deployed overseas even in a time of European war. And no full brigades in combat. I don't think we have any full battalions in combat. If the Army has problems, it isn't deployments overseas. The article doesn't persuade me. I'm sure some elements in high demand but few in number are under stress. But the Army as a whole?? What am I missing?
Special forces have a light propeller-driven close air support plane.
Not a single target struck? "Biden administration officials touted robust “over-the-horizon” capabilities to both gather intelligence and strike terrorist groups to keep them in check. But some two years after the Biden administration announced the drawdown, the U.S. military hasn’t struck a single target in Afghanistan, and U.S. military leaders now concede they lack sufficient resources to do so." I didn't expect much, but the administration claimed a few strikes! I guess that was by the CIA. Exactly: "During the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. had the benefit of not only surveillance aircraft and other technology in-country, but military, intelligence and State Department personnel on the ground maintaining Afghan and Pakistani human information networks[.]"
Can American allies keep an eye on Iran as America pivots to face China and takes the lead in Europe to stop Russia? Interesting question. I ask if America wants to keep an eye on Iran.
The end has been ten years away nigh for a long time in climate change circles. Is reason counterattacking (tip to Instapundit)? But will any leaders demonstrate the futility of promoting magical thinking? And now for something completely different:
Zelensky met Macron in France where France pledged to train more Ukrainian troops and provide "dozens of light tanks and
armored vehicles 'in the weeks ahead,' without giving specific numbers.
Also promised were more air defense systems, but again details weren’t
made public." The "light tanks" are heavy armored cars.
Well, the struggle to decide who are the Bolsheviks and who are the Mensheviks is a high-stakes game: "The Minneapolis DFL Ward 10 convention descended into chaos on Saturday
afternoon, leading to the session's adjournment without endorsement." Tip to Instapundit.
And yet Democrats want to cripple American energy production: "it is supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the bulk again from the USA, which have permitted the rest of Europe to resist Putin’s energy warfare and keep the lights on. Continued US support will be just as vital this winter, and probably for some years to come."
Well at least we have established that illegal immigrants should patiently wait in line to get into America. I agree. I just think the wait should be longer while they wait in their country of origin while following the American immigration procedures currently in our laws. I know, I know, I'm a horrible person.
How long before China has a base in Eritrea? "Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Monday strong China-Eritrea relations were key to bolstering peace in the Horn of Africa region and pursuing mutually beneficial development, speaking at a meeting in Beijing with his Eritrean counterpart."
Is Russia resuming its attacks on Ukraine's long-range missile production capabilities?
In the nick of too late to save the LCS: "After several years of delays, the Navy’s mine countermeasures mission package for the Littoral Combat Ship has finally reached its initial operating capability." Well maybe the mission package will fit on small modularized auxiliary cruisers.
The threat endures: "U.S. 5th Fleet, along with other allies in the Middle East, will increase the number of ships and aircraft patrolling the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran’s recent seizures of merchant vessels, U.S. Naval Forces Central Command announced Friday."
Setting out the "Keep Out" signs: "The Philippines has placed navigational buoys within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) to assert sovereignty over the disputed Spratly islands in the South China Sea, a coast guard spokesperson said on Sunday." The battle is on.
There should be prison time for those involved: "Special counsel John Durham exposed Monday how the FBI and Justice Department plotted to rig the 2016 presidential election." That Obama administration abuse of government power colluding with Hillary! to shield her and undermine Trump was the only collusion in 2016 and the next couple years.
NATO works on surging forces into the Suwalki Gap in a crisis: "The concerns center on whether allies could mobilize fast enough should the Russian military attempt to seal off the Baltic states from the rest of the alliance." Good. But the real solution is to rapidly take Kaliningrad in a war Russia starts.
Oh? "Iran is expanding its military partnership with Russia and has already provided hundreds of drones to Russia to pursue its war in Ukraine, a senior White House official said Monday, warning of consequences if Iran continues down this path." This White House will forgive Iran for anything.
Huh: "Russia's top army general and his South African counterpart discussed 'military cooperation' while meeting Monday in Moscow, the Russian Defense Ministry said."
Awesome: "Britain is having to cannibalize parts from one of its two new aircraft carriers to keep the other one operational." I've been worried.
The media refuses to look: "It is the blindside of our First Amendment, which addresses the classic use of state authority to coerce and control media. It does not address a circumstance in which most of the media will maintain an official line by consent rather than coercion."
Putin ordered his country to produce better and more aerial drones.
The Marines will battle workplace gender bias. General MacArthur said there is no substitute for victory. America's military believes otherwise.
Welp, the new super carrier Ford is combat ready. Huzzah? That pinnacle of platform-centric warfare sets sail into a network-centric sea.
Moldova has begun the process of withdrawing from Russia's discount NATO, the Commonwealth of Independent States. It isn't a big direct blow to Russia. Moldova is small. But it does show a lack of fear of Russian retaliation. Which could spread to larger members of the CIS formed by Russia from former Soviet subject states. Tip to Instapundit.
Pawns: "Iranian leaders are stoking conflict between Israel and Palestinian militias, likely to enable the IRGC to transfer military equipment into Syria with a lower risk of Israeli interdiction."
Denmark: "In a new foreign and security policy strategy, the country's government calls for more joint military exercises and coordination of defence plans with its Nordic neighbours."
You don't need to be a MAGA fan to know the Russia-Trump collusion obsession was BS: "Within half a decade, [Democrats] went from 'The 1980s want their foreign policy back' to looking for Russkies under the bed. It was a mass delusion."
The American division in South Korea is the only "combined division" in the Army: "The 12,100-strong 2nd ID is the Army’s only division that combines U.S. units with those of another nation, in this case South Korea.
South Korea will expand nonlethal aid to Ukraine.
Iraq's enemies, external and inside the house.
China has learned from Russia that invading Taiwan is too difficult. I hope so. More relevant perhaps is that the Taiwanese think resistance is not futile. If that's the most important lesson of Putin's invasion of Ukraine, China may in time regret they didn't invade while the Taiwanese were pre-defeated.
Rule of law. What is it? "Gunmen in south-eastern Nigeria have attacked a US convoy, killing [two consulate employees and two police], local police say." No U.S. citizens were in the convoy. And three people were kidnapped.
Biden cancels historic visit to Papua New Guinea. Worse than not going is getting PNG to plan for visit and see it snatched away. It was just a three-hour visit. Biden should have gone.
Communications is the backbone of maneuver and precision fires: "The U.S. Army is planning a second experiment where the latest networking technologies will be tested for potential outfitting aboard armored vehicles."
Shame: "The Justice Department — as well as the media that covered it — effectively shut down a duly elected presidency, based on what turned out to be a politically engineered hoax." And shame on the media for pretending this government abuse of power is nothing. What happened to Democratic championship of civil liberties? It's now open season on enemies of the state. Well, for targeting certain acto(R)s: "Durham documents that President Obama, Vice President Biden, top intelligence officials, Attorney General Loretta Lynch, and FBI director Comey were fully briefed by CIA director John Brennan on Russia’s assessment of Clinton’s plan to frame Trump." Hillary! walks freely despite her security crimes as Secretary of State with destruction of evidence thrown in, not to mention her role in starting and sustaining the Russia collusion hoax. Via Instapundit.
Interesting times in Pakistan: "The world’s fifth most populous country is no stranger to political unrest. No prime minister has ever completed their tenure in Pakistan’s history, but never before has a politician challenging the country’s all-powerful military and intelligence services, known as the establishment, enjoyed such public support." Is the public tired of the military's political power? This crisis is far from over. How will China react to this problem in their new client state? Oh, Pakistan has nuclear weapons and a plentiful supply of jihadis. Have a super sparkly day.
I'm not sure that is fair to say Russia's ground forces have improved since beginning the war. Too much equipment, trained men, and leaders have been destroyed or killed. I think it is safe to say that Russia is adapting to its limitations by falling back on firepower and a willingness to let its troops die.
Using old tanks as artillery is useful but not a real Russian innovation (as the author ultimately notes):
Also, it is less than optimal even for old tanks. The tank's engine is as much of a weapon as its gun. If used that way. But in a static front it is useful. As the U.S. used them in Korea and as the Ukrainians have already used them.
I've heard this already and dismissed it as anything but a Plan B: "Rather than a costly ground offensive to liberate Crimea from Russian control, there may be an easier way: Use unmanned boats to attack Russian forces and blockade the peninsula, argue two American experts." Stop throwing panties at unmanned boats. Long-range missile bombardment would be a better way to smash up Russian bases in Crimea if it can't be captured.
Do not become confused: "The Biden administration proposed to Israel a few weeks ago the idea of
engaging in joint military planning concerning Iran, three U.S. and
Israeli officials told Axios." This is obviously to prevent Israel from acting against Democrats' love interest.
Missile magnets won't command and control much: "Command posts of the past were relatively stationary, cumbersome to set up and break down, and often identifiable by the heat, noise and electronic artifacts they give off. Such easy targets will not cut it in a fight against China or Russia[.]"
I think this intends to transfer older Virginia's to Australia to bridge the gap between its conventional subs and new AUKUS subs and prepare crews for the new subs: "The U.S. Department of Defense asked Congress to authorize the transfer of nuclear-powered submarines to Australia as part of the trilateral AUKUS agreement with the U.K."
No doubt: "A U.S. Navy commander said Wednesday there is “no significant change” in the conduct of Russian aircraft and warships toward Western naval and air assets in the eastern Mediterranean as Moscow’s war in Ukraine grinds on." The Russian force would have a short but exciting life if it starts shooting.
Wartime innovation. But does it work in combat?
The Russian airborne forces' tank destroyer. But not fit for fighting in Ukraine. I'm surprised it has the same 125mm gun as tanks. Doesn't that mess up the chassis when firing too many times? Isn't that why Western light vehicles have low-velocity versions of tank guns? Or I could just be missing something.
South Korea wants an arsenal ship: "When they are built and deployed, South Korea's ships will tell North Korea and China that a surprise attack will not destroy its ability to retaliate." I think the ship tells enemies that destroying on floating target will eliminate a lot of the deterrent force. Not a fan.
Is opposition to the Marine Corps' Force Design 2030 to support the fleet a "zombie" idea relentlessly and mindlessly undermining the path to success? I agree with Marines teaming with the Navy to defeat the Chinese navy. And while I miss the most significant ground force fighting at the Army's side since 9/11, I appreciate the Marines rejecting being a second Army. But when you start to sink ships, sink ships. And ... logistics? Also, the approach isn't as appropriate for the rest of the world where no fleet threatens Western control of the seas. Or even after China's fleet is defeated. I reject the idea that the Marine science is settled.
Russia agreed to a two-month extension of the Black Sea grain export agreement.
Integrated Battle Problem 23.1: "The U.S. Pacific Fleet is testing 'fleet-centric' concepts and capabilities with a keen eye on unmanned systems to figure out how would the fleet connect, command and control disparate uncrewed systems that are operated remotely, semi or fully autonomously." Explain to me again how super carriers fit into this networked concept.
Macron wants "strategic autonomy" for the European Union, notwithstanding having his nose rubbed in the need for NATO during Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Well of course Macron wants that. What a nice chap.
The Philippines draws a line in the South China Sea. The contest is afoot.
Russia continues to attack Ukraine's cities with missiles, seemingly with little to show for it. I sometimes wonder if it isn't so much strategy as it is having measurable inputs to demonstrate to Putin that the military is acting.
Should John Brennan be in prison for undermining our democracy?
The European Union's rule-of-law crisis is that members don't obey the EU?? Please, the proto-imperial EU is all about violating rule of law to strip away the prefix.
Shocking: "President Joe Biden's Syria policy has been dealt its biggest blow yet as the Arab League has welcomed back President Bashar al-Assad despite U.S. opposition to his rule." Biden has a Syria policy?
The "Not Part of China" coalition: "The Philippines finds itself part of a growing anti-China coalition dedicated to preventing China from exercising control over the South China Sea. This coalition now includes South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia and Vietnam as well as the United States, Australia and several NATO nations with navies and lots of trade passing through the South China Sea. To China this coalition is seen as an obstacle, not a defeat." Herding the cats is required to hold the line.
The Navy will be able to build frigates faster: "The Navy has previously committed to just 20 Constellation-class frigates. The desire to add a second shipyard strongly indicates the Navy wants far more than the original number. Two shipyards building two ships per year would yield 40 frigates over ten years, and the actual number of ships the Navy would like is probably somewhere around 50."
This will take time (tip to Instapundit): "The Biden administration has informed European allies that Washington will not block their export of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, a person familiar with the decision told The Washington Post. Biden has ruled out U.S. deliveries of F-16s to Ukraine." Can the time be shortened?
Australia will provide the Philippines with surveillance drones for their coast guard. And is considering joint patrols in the South China Sea.
Britain will send a carrier battle group on a INDOPACOM deployment in 2025.
China's BRI loans have a mixed record of good and slipshod infrastructure in the poorer countries that get China's loans. And the debt-trap threatens to snap shut with defaults on shaky Chinese state banks absent Chinese government bailouts. Is this building dependence or resentment in loan recipients?
Trade: "Chinese leader Xi Jinping promised to build more railway and other trade links with Central Asia and proposed jointly developing oil and gas sources at a meeting Friday with the region’s leaders that highlighted Beijing’s growing influence." Flag to follow? And a flag that leaves?
An "accounting error" means the U.S. has $3 billion left in current appropriations authority to send military aid to Ukraine. It may or may not be fishy. Just as the FBI investigation of faux Trump-Russia collusion may have "only" seriously bent rules and standards to abuse government powers without technically violating any laws. But I know for sure that if a Republican administration had done either, we'd have 24/7 news drama about the "appearance of impropriety" that demands the truth and punishment--impeachment, anyone?--of those responsible. You know I'm right.
Maybe we haven't looked for the right signals to find alien life. Maybe we missed the signal because we weren't looking or haven't found the signals in the collected data we've examined. Maybe we just don't appreciate how big the universe is and contact is unlikely. Or maybe we really are alone (tip to The Morning Briefing). Or, as the article continues, maybe we are alone because intelligent life is hard to come by. Or maybe it wipes itself out. Or gets wiped out from the universe itself. Maybe this means we have a tremendous opportunity to expand. Or, as I proposed, aliens are deliberately--if obliviously--vewy, vewy quiet.
Why does our government hate us? Tip to Instapundit.
Combat veterans can learn faster, I guess: "Yahoo News has exclusively obtained an internal U.S. Air Force assessment that concludes it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate American-made F-16 fighter jets, a far shorter time frame than what has been repeatedly cited by Pentagon officials."
American forces are not immune to attacks on jammed up supply convoys. I guess we're sort of getting some practice now, in the sense of being aware that real potential threat exists.
I'm a traditionalist and think our most survivable nuclear deterrent loses survivability when visible: "Traditionally, submarines have relied on their invisibility and stealth for their effectiveness. In a strictly operational sense, that remains the case. But the more overt utilisation of deployments in times of tension represents something new." But I'm sure our best and brightest aren't bound by mere tradition built on experience. This will be fine, right? Fine, show the SSGNs and SSNs if you must. I'd rather not, but fine. But keep the SSBNs underwater!
I'm not pleased with retired flag officers offering opinions on political matters. Civilian control is vital. But it seems to me that the left started this and have politicized serving flag officers to the point that victory has many substitutes.
So perhaps the latest open letter is the least-bad option at the moment when responsible civilian leadership seems shaky.
Yes, a stronger NATO enables a pivot to Asia: "A stronger NATO and a less U.S.-dependent Ukraine will allow the U.S. to turn its attention to what should be its top priority: deterring China in the Indo-Pacific." But there is a danger if Europe builds up its defense industrial base. Especially if "Europe" is defined as the European Union. Isn't this in part Leading from Behind 2.0? I'd rather emphasize America being the primary arsenal of democracy.
This increase is not impressive: "The U.S. Army has placed a multi-year contract for 10,000 GMLRS guided rockets a year (up from 6,000) through 2026[.]"
This is government bureaucracy in action:
As Ukraine takes its time to make sure it is ready for its counteroffensive, the Russians got time, too: "This has resulted in much closer integration of multiple UAVs directly supporting commanders authorised to apply fires. Russian artillery has also improved its ability to fire from multiple positions and to fire and move, reducing susceptibility to counterbattery fire." And Russian engineers are building defenses and obstacles. But we'll see if the Russian troops with poor morale will hold them.
Also, I've noted my worry on this capability during the counteroffensive: "The Russian Aerospace Forces remain a ‘force in being’ and a major threat to advancing Ukrainian forces, although they currently lack the capabilities to penetrate Ukrainian air defences."
This is interesting: "There has been a shift in reliance upon 152-mm howitzers to a much greater emphasis on 120-mm mortars in Russian fires; this reflects munitions and barrel availability."
When tanks are destroyed, some say they are obsolete. How about those UAVs? "Ukrainian UAV losses remain at approximately 10,000 per month." Although we may have to revise what "tanks" look like. I concede most of those lost UAVs are pretty inexpensive. But countries lost a lot tanks in World War II.
One more: "Following the destruction of Russian command and control infrastructure in July 2022, the Russian military withdrew major headquarters out of range of GMLRS and placed them in hardened structures. They also wired them into the Ukrainian civil telecommunications network and used field cables to branch from this to brigade headquarters further forward. Assigned assets tend to connect to these headquarters via microlink, significantly reducing their signature." If Ukraine can shift the fight from positional warfare to one of maneuver, the Russian adaptation to static warfare will falter, I think. That's a separate issue from whether Ukraine can command and control maneuver warfare: "if Ukraine can disrupt Russian defences and impose a dynamic situation on them, Russian units are likely to rapidly lose their coordination."
The North Korean smuggling fleet.
Draining the Political Petroleum Reserve was easy. Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve isn't a priority: "President Joe Biden in December began working to replenish the 180 million barrels he sold last year from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Nearly six months later, he still has zero barrels to show for it." Tip to Instapundit.
I'd rather have their ships join us: "The Mideast-based commanders of the U.S., British and French navies transited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday aboard an American warship[.]" But I don't like dangling big ships there.
A vassal without limits to its needs: "Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will visit Beijing next week for talks, China's Foreign Ministry said Friday[.]" Let's see how that visit works out.
To be fair, Biden constantly tells his supporters that the MAGA supremacists are all around us waiting to pounce and kill. Tip to Instapundit.
