Know your place, women: "In a further attempt to rein in the increasing number of women defying Iran's compulsory dress code, authorities are installing cameras in public places and thoroughfares to identify and penalise unveiled women, the police announced on Saturday."
How close will Vietnam get to America to resist Chinese claims on Vietnamese territory in the South China Sea? A far ally is safer. But alas ... far away. On the other hand, the Vietnamese know exactly how much military power America can deploy far away and how much it can hurt. If they really kicked our ass it wouldn't be a question.
Putin claims the West is "hysterical" over Russia's plan to store nukes in Belarus. Oh, get real. I'm not. When Belarus revolts and ejects the Russians it may get a nuclear deterrent conveniently left for it. Belarus would not make Ukraine's mistake of giving up the Soviet nukes that the Russians left them.
Yeah, right back at you, guys. Get your house in order.
Saddam's statues and images are long gone in Iraq. Which is one reason I'm not against removing Confederate statues here. As long as it is done by governing authorities rather than mobs. I think the distance in time and our civil rights record should make them historical rather than culture war monuments. But, hey, I don't speak for everyone. Sadly, one Iraqi quoted doesn't understand "rule of law". It isn't really rule of law when virtually everyone is oppressed and terrorized equally. Still, he's right that Iran basically supports a return of Saddam-like control by pro-Iran factions. And yeah, corruption is a problem. Real rule of law can fight that, as I've long argued.
I'm not eager for Republican state officials to bring charges against Biden, Obama, Hillary!, or Bill Clinton. But after the arrest of Trump I don't know how else to get Democrats to veer off this dangerous path of criminalizing dissent and political differences. The problem will be getting both sides to back off when both sides are targeted. Will either side sheath that sword once used? Would they even want to and be faced with actual problems to solve (via Instapundit)? Or will partisan divisions lead both to wage that war more ruthlessly? If that happens, elections will be such high-stakes contests that voter fraud will be inevitable. Have a super sparkly day.
Is there nothing climate change can't achieve? Tip to Instapundit.
Poland will supply Ukraine with 200 Rosomak infantry fighting vehicles. It is a wheeled armored troop carrier with a 30mm gun as its main armament.
Our so-called leaders have wrecked customs and norms of governance. And the people have let them get away with it: "The old-timey politicians had a phrase that helped restrain them: 'The country wouldn’t stand for that.' You don’t hear that phrase anymore." I think that still happens. But politicians think Twitter represents the country. It does not. But the politicians think so. Or act as if they think so. One day the actual country won't stand for something and perhaps end the decline.
A new tip of the American nuclear spear.
Cultivating Greenland's indigenous people before America buys the island from Denmark?
Isn't that called TikTok? "China’s military is increasingly at work on wearable technology and a dedicated psychological support system to win at what it views as the crucial space of cognitive warfare—manipulating enemy troops’ state of mind to shape their behavior and hardening its own forces against such efforts."
India continues to arm up. Well, slowly within the limits of their inept and corrupt arms industry. Not that we don't have our damning moments.
To be fair, Turkey has a lot of tanks: "Israel signed a 1.44 billion shekel ($400 million) deal to sell Spike anti-tank missiles to Greece[.]"
Singapore-U.S. defense cooperation remains strong, it seems.
I assume both Russia and Ukraine are husbanding ammunition for the coming spring campaign. So I guess from the "Well, Duh" files, a future increase in artillery usage will likely indicate a campaign is being waged. I mean, if nothing else gives that indication that will be the metric. Whatever.
Meeting military standards: "During World War II the percentage of acceptable recruits was more than double what it is today. Young men and women were in better physical shape, fewer got into trouble with drugs or crime, and military educational standards were not as high because there were more non-technical jobs available."
Israel's UAV Quasi-War against its enemies.
Huh: "A Ukrainian volunteer group is asking the public for monetary donations that would be used to crowdfund a fleet of British FV101 Scorpion armored reconnaissance vehicles[.]" I've discussed such digital camp followers for a while.
That intel dump estimates 43,000 Russian KIA and 17,500 Ukrainian KIA at some point in February. Add in more Russian deaths for poor medical care, I say.
Afghanistan had far fewer security forces than they had on paper. That would explain their inability to seize the initiative and go after the Taliban. And yes, Afghan forces needed American logistics support to operate. European NATO states needed a lot of American help to defeat Khadaffi's revolution-wracked forces in 2011.
Hot deaths in the Cold War. The USSR and China no doubt lost more. But usually by operating weapon systems of our enemies or the enemies of our allies during combat.
Sure: "Xi’s belligerence prompts classic balancing, an alignment among smaller states that would alone struggle to compete." But without America, China would divide and conquer with that belligerence backed by growing military and economic power.
Flak trap? "Military intelligence leaked online this week indicated Ukrainian air defenses will be depleted by the end of May, which may embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin to bring reserved fighter jets to the front lines."
In my opinion, Russia is the one insisting on its military defeat by invading Ukraine and refusing to leave: "Russia is ready for a ceasefire in Ukraine at any time but the prospect is 'unrealistic' and unacceptable as long as Kyiv and the West insist on Russia’s military defeat, the Kremlin’s ambassador to London has told The Times." That is no peace for our time. Russia wants the West to save it from military defeat and preserve some of Russia's conquests. Which will provide the springboard for another offensive. If we do this, China will take note.
I ran across this prediction I made a few months before the invasion that reflects what Russia has achieved so far: "If Russia invades, I'd suspect either an effort to expand their Donbas holdings; or an advance to take the Sea of Azov coast and link up with Crimea, with a possible effort to take Odessa included." Russia was turned back in a broader but inept offensive.
Will extensive Russian fortifications in Crimea make liberating it bloody and difficult? If they are laid out correctly, built strongly, and manned by resolute and well equipped and trained troops, sure.
Russia always has fantastic "plans": "Russia plans to overhaul its air defence forces after gaining new experience in the war in Ukraine and will also bolster its air defences to counter Finland's accession to the NATO military alliance, a commander in Russia's aerospace forces said."
When Chicago falls farther and faster, we'll be reassured that the city didn't try "real Marxism."
Derinkuyu, the underground city rediscovered. Tip to Instapundit.
When Democrats fight for "our democracy" they make it clear they don't defend democracy if it means Democrats don't get their way. Tip to Instapundit.
Oh, how the tables have turned: Pakistan doesn't like anti-Pakistan jihadis having sanctuaries in Afghanistan under the Taliban the Pakistanis supported even as they cooperated with America to fight the Taliban.
It's a shame we'll de-orbit the ISS and waste all that mass sent into orbit at so much expense. Can't it be parked higher and used for parts or melted down in orbiting facilities for re-use one day? Or will cheaper launches make that pointless?
Britain's Integrated Refresh Review has been adjusted for war in Europe: "The most obvious change is one of tone, abandoning the “Global Britain” marketing hyperbole found in the original 2021 Integrated Review." Global Britain made sense at the time. But now adjustments to reality are required. Let me toss in RUSI reports on Britain's European and Asian military angles.
Turkey launched a large-deck warship designed for F-35Bs and helicopters. But difficulties with NATO mean that air component changes to helicopters and drones. And perhaps a domestically built light jet. We'll see if Turkey can rebuild a sphere of influence in former Ottoman territories. And whether that helps or hurts rebuilding American-Turkish relations.
The Air Force has used a C-17 as a command and control aircraft. Remember the exercise using a transport plane to launch missiles from the air? Or the mobile aircraft refueler? The airlift fleet is already inadequate. It's almost cute in its child-like trust that the Army believes the Air Force will prioritize carrying Army light tanks.
The Navy says surface warfare ensign training is paying off. And the Navy is improving current fleet readiness. This is good news. If China is a near-term threat, we go to war with what we have tomorrow and not what we'll build over the next ten years.
Can we make self-healing runways? I can see that working for cracks or crumbling concrete. But bomb craters? I don't see that replacing rapid runway repair crews. But it's still good.
Putin smiles: "No later than Saturday, April 15, the time has come: then Germany's last three nuclear power plants will also close." Tip to Instapundit.
Never say Putin's paranoia can't get worse. Although bans on officials traveling to the West are not about mistrust. It's about preventing the West from taking hostages the way Putin does with Westerners in Russia.
The Navy is spreading out the firepower in its four aging former SSBNs now configured as SSGNs that can carry up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Virginia SSNs will each carry some of the load, with the latest models able to carry 40. Will we call those SSGNs?
The Chinese build warships faster than we can repair ours (tip to Instapundit). I've lamented our lack of shipyards. Although there is some hope: "We need expanded shipyards to compete with China in a war at sea: 'Despite the lack of specifics, shipyards in the Gulf Coast have quietly
mounted extensive capital expansion efforts for new construction and
repair work as D.C. hammers out the plans for the future fleet.'" To add to our woes, we'd better think about defending the shipyards, too. Could Europe help out?
Just ef the federal government for their ever-expanding sick desire to control us. Why do they hate us so much? Tip to Instapundit. We need a return to federalism.
And now for something completely different:
Formerly Known as the Arsenal of Democracy: "The United States no longer has the capacity to quickly produce needed wartime assets, like 155 mm artillery shells, or to repair vital sophisticated systems, like radar, rapidly in theater, a panel of expert logisticians said last week." Yeah. The issue of contested logistics is also raised. Yeah.
USS Milius conducts a FONOP: "'By engaging in normal operations within 12 nautical miles of Mischief Reef, the United States demonstrated that vessels can lawfully exercise high-seas freedoms in those areas,' [7th Fleet] added." Normally operating a warship rather than passively moving in a straight line through claimed waters is the difference between a "freedom of navigation operation" and "innocent passage" which concedes foreign control.
I'm old enough to remember when the media got outraged when a president lied about crowd size.
Good: "South Korea has reached an agreement to lend the United States 500,000 rounds of 155mm artillery shells[.]" When do we pay it back?
I find this shocking: "Germany’s land forces cannot fulfill their NATO commitments, according
to a leaked memo from a top soldier cited in a German media report." Germany has land forces?
Iran's influence over Yemen's Houthi had apparently already declined. Will this and the Iran-Saudi Arabia detente finish the civil war on some terms acceptable to each side? Yemen continues to be a geographic term. Remember, Biden condemned Saudi Arabia for trying to win that war. The Saudis are trying Plan B.
All those Starlink satellites can serve as a less accurate GPS. Which helped with the distributed civilian air defense identification system.
The CIA director said Russia risks becoming an economic colony of China.
Background on the Guyana-Venezuela territorial dispute. Not that I can read more than the first two paragraphs ...
Remember when Biden was supposed to repair our relations with allies? "[The] French president has annoyed allies from the Baltic to the Beltway by saying Europeans should stand apart from the US on China and Taiwan or risk becoming 'vassals.'"
Are Taiwan's Qemoy and Matsu islands in China's sights now? Maybe. But taking islands so close to China's coast aren't really a display of amphibious warfare capabilities that a smaller target provides? And why attack garrisons that would have to surrender if Taiwan itself falls?
A candidate for a new helmet for the military? I feel old when I consider I started out wearing the iconic steel pot.
Good: "As Ukraine fights off Russian invaders, it is also waging an internal battle against corruption and Western perception, say analysts, inspectors, and some Ukrainians." In the long run that is necessary to survive.
Putin should get the F-35 salesman of the year award: "Romania says it will purchase F-35 Joint Strike Fighters in a bid to boost the country’s air security capabilities and deter 'aggression,' according to a statement posted to the website of president Klaus Iohannis."
Like our intelligence agencies, the Israelis apparently don't have sufficient foreign enemies to keep them busy: "Some of the leaked documents indicate the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad supported nationwide protests against a proposed judicial reform from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu."
To be fair, it is actually Democrat-affiliated media: "NPR said it's quitting Twitter after the social media platform labeled the news organization as 'state-affiliated media' last week." Or did I miss its slavish devotion to Trump when he was president? Tip to Instapundit.
I'm going to lose every last bit of my 401k before I start to draw it down, won't I? I'd like to think this is because my government hates me. I don't know if my ego can stand having this collateral devastation inflicted without it even being aware of me. More seriously, people say China won't risk their economy by going to war. If the economy is already horrible, what restrains them? And will it encourage them to rally impoverished people around the party? Or will we only have a mild recession?
Putin invaded Ukraine to get rid of "Nazis": "Social media footage circulated on April 12 shows a group of Russian men reportedly giving the Nazi salute and walking past administrative buildings in Ufa, Bashkortostan while shouting 'Russia is for Russians.'" They're always the last place you look.
Poland wants to have an Abrams tank service center. That would help Poland. And American forces in Poland. And Ukraine eventually.
The U.S. and the Philippines are discussing the sale of F-16s. Behind the growing shield of the American alliance, Manila needs to win tiny wars in defense of its internationally recognized South China Sea territory and dare China to expand a fight beyond the Philippines' capabilities.
Rather than pack our forces into western Pacific bases before China strikes, this is a better option: "The Air Force is moving a small expeditionary team from Europe to a vast logistics exercise this summer in the Western Pacific region[.]"
The Army will mount lasers on Infantry Squad Vehicles to protect against drone attacks. Sigh. You know what I think of these hermaphrodite leg infantry units with the ISV. And it proves my point (in Army magazine) that combat air patrol drones protecting our infantry is the only way to let the infantry close with and destroy the enemy without needless distractions.
I have my exception to the "only good jihadi is a dead jihadi" rule. Questioning one to kill even more jihadis: "U.S. forces last week captured an Islamic State operative in a late-night raid in eastern Syria, the Pentagon announced Wednesday." I assume Delta Force was the primary strike force.
Ukraine still clings to the western part of Bakhmut. I don't understand why Western analysts oppose Ukraine's defense. A lot more Russians are dying. It's not like Russia will stop attacking after they take Bakhmut. And it keeps the Russians attacking and bleeding before Ukraine's big counteroffensive.
The thrust and riposte of sanctions enforcement and sanctions evasion.
Another article about that CSIS wargame that said China would lose an invasion of Taiwan despite inflicting heavy casualties on American forces. Slow down. The definitions for winning and losing are way off.
Finland in NATO isolates Russia's Kaliningrad exclave more thoroughly. Sweden will add to that. If Russia invades northeastern NATO, Kaliningrad should be the target of the first NATO offensive.
A new strategy to end the war? In my opinion, the best time for negotiations to end the Winter War of 2022 is after a major Ukrainian battlefield victory that ejects Russia from crucial territory Russia needs to launch another invasion of Ukraine.
Ukraine has its own motive for this advice: "Ukraine’s foreign minister has urged the NATO alliance to be more active in the Black Sea region, saying the area is 'instrumental for making the whole of Europe peaceful and future-oriented.'" As long as Ukraine stands with the West, I think the Black Sea is a potential distraction.
Aren't actual women upset that the homogametic minstrel show performer Dylan Mulvaney is put forward as an example of how a genuine woman behaves?
So how many terrorists entering America does it take to pose a threat? "Skyrocketing terrorist watch list hits at US borders are fueling fear and condemnation of Biden immigration policies, though border buffs dispute whether the numbers indicate a serious threat." Also, "border buffs?" I know "experts" are losing their credibility. But we're backpedaling to "buffs" for our advice? Tip to The Morning Briefing.
Be careful what you wish for: "The top diplomats from Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan attended a conference Thursday that focused on ensuring regional security in light of the situation in Afghanistan." It was easy to work to undermine America's war there. Oops. But the jihadi "situation" in Afghanistan is their problem, too. So good luck with that without America.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Iran allegedly smuggled weapons to Syria through deliveries of relief supplies shipped following a devastating earthquake in February, according to a new report." War zone humanitarian aid is always part of the war.
The peasants have no transportation? Well let them buy Bentley EVs! Tip to Instapundit.
I love stories with happy endings! Via Instapundit.
There is mixed talk about how Russia is on the verge of collapse or can't possibly lose the war with Ukraine. My assumption is that we don't see how much Russia is hurting.
Readiness fail for National Guard helicopter pilots.
Okay: "The entire Russian Pacific Fleet was put on high alert Friday for snap drills that will involve practice missile launches, in a massive show of force amid tensions with the West over the fighting in Ukraine." The fleet did get a promotion. ISW said this was to show China that Russia is useful. But who is Russia worried about, anyway?
It's so cute that Mali believed Wagner would control jihadis: "The Mali military government use of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries has been a disaster for northern and central Mali because the Russians can’t halt the expansion of Islamic terror groups." To serve Russia, Wagner needs chaos to push refugees north to Europe.
South Korea's 160-kilometer-range version of HIMARS.
Is a China-Russia-India bloc forming? No.
With American help, Georgia repelled a Russian invasion. Fifteen years later are Georgians going to decide to submit to Russia? It's an oligarchy with voting. So maybe. Georgians may fear a wounded bear on their border more than they hope to be part of a distant West.
Leaving Afghanistan was not based on the sunk-cost fallacy. That holds that you should base a decision to pay the price for an objective going forward and not factor in what was already paid. The past is gone. But often people don't want to "waste" what was already spent. So they spend more for failure. So far, so good. But refusing to remain in Afghanistan to keep it from returning to a jihadi sanctuary was based on a reverse sunk-cost analysis. The decision to retreat when the war was basically won relied on saying we paid so much already that we must leave rather than pay one penny more. Ignoring past costs would have bolstered a decision to pay the future relatively small price to defend the win and prevent the jihadis from rebuilding a base to revive their golden age.
America is not "back", restoring relations with allies. Although the Israel situation is not described accurately. The Israeli supreme court has expanded its scope of power to keep leftist policies set in amber. Netanyahu is trying to roll back that undermining of legitimate policy choice changes that democracy enables.
China won't back down over Taiwan? Okay. Unless China is bluffing about its commitment to make us less likely to help Taiwan. But let's assume we can't deter them. That's unfortunate. But we can defeat them. And even better, we can make them have higher priorities--either threats or opportunities--elsewhere. Like inland.
American B-1 bombers deployed to India for joint exercises. The planes can be armed to put Chinese warships in a world of hurt in the Indian Ocean. And points east. Which complements India's intent.
Why does the Biden administration hate America?
I assume this is just a new means of getting Syria out of Iran's orbit: "Arab countries gathered in Jeddah on Friday to discuss ending Syria's long spell in the diplomatic wilderness, as regional relations shift following Saudi Arabia and Iran's decision to resume ties."
Moqtada al-Sadr is suspending his Iraqi organization for a year. I don't trust that three-time, pro-Iran insurrectionist. But he does seem to have genuinely turned against Iran. He's an enemy of our enemy. But no friend.
While the government claims right-wing MAGA racists are a big threat who could strike at any moment, the actually violent left wing gets the "mostly peaceful" treatment.
Via Instapundit, good! Administrative rules aren't inherently bad. But the legislative branch must provide strict guidance and oversight to keep that executive branch's quasi-legislative (and quasi-judicial) power from straying from legislative intent into rewriting statute with rules. And of course, you don't want the quasi-judicial powers to infringe on the right to judicial review. I worked on this subject--not as an attorney, I'll stress--at the state level for a long time.
Based on post-World War II experience, Ukraine can expect its economy to recover in a generation. If college poli sci memory serves me, countries damaged or devastated by war accelerated their growth and after 20 years reached where they'd have been if the pre-war growth rate is extended to that point. It was called the Phoenix factor (or something like that).
Is Lebanon heading toward a civil war, destabilized by Syrian mostly Sunni refugees who can't go home? And Hezbollah, the elephant in the room, remains.
Germany shuts down its last nuclear plants. When Germany was our enemy, we had to bomb their energy supplies at high cost. Now that Germany is our ally, it saves its enemies the trouble of wrecking its energy supplies. FFS. Tip to Instapundit.
More balloons. With capabilities we don't understand. Maybe instead of Space Force we should have established Balloon Force.
LOL:
This is a reason to have let Russia conquer Ukraine? "One of the results of this slow, grinding warfare has been the rapid expenditure of munitions, at least on the Ukrainian side. U.S. weapons stockpiles are now badly depleted, and our defense industrial base is taxed[.]" The war has been a wake up call about how unready our stockpiles and defense industrial base are. Would it be better to learn that during a war we are actually fighting? Who thinks we'd address those problems without the lesson we are getting now? Also, $80 billion is a large number. To mere mortals. But America spent $6.27 trillion dollars in fiscal year 2022. That's a ginormous number. America has spent less than 1.3% of its annual budget on defeating a clearly brutal Russia in Europe and wrecking China's major ally.
Our military presence in Syria isn't as post-ISIL as I thought: "ISIS is executing a decentralized military campaign in northeastern Syria to destabilize the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). ISIS strategic communications provide guidance for operational and tactical commanders implementing the campaign. ISIS’s campaign design assumes military success will gain the support of local populations by delegitimizing the SDF as a security provider while lengthening the conflict to create time for ISIS to set conditions for the return to the 'caliphate.'"
China has cut back mil-to-mil contacts with America to punish us. And: "Strategically, high-level exchanges with foreign militaries support overall Chinese foreign policy and the PRC’s efforts to foster a favorable international security environment. Operationally, such interactions provide opportunities for intelligence gathering on both friendly and rival militaries." Thank you China. We're too blind to recognize our good luck.
Is the Yemen civil war really ending? If so, what does that say about Iran's willingness--or ability--to stoke regional mayhem?
