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Sunday, May 08, 2022

Weekend Data Dump

Taiwan may seek alternatives to American M109A6 self-propelled artillery because America's production of them because of a "crowded" production line. Are we replacing towed howitzers given to Ukraine with these weapons? Something has higher priority than Taiwan.

ISIL is killing Moslem civilians in Afghanistan. How long before the Taliban government agrees to leave ISIL alone if ISIL focuses on killing Westerners abroad? ISIL in Afghanistan is stronger since we fled. Who knew we couldn't fight jihadis from a distance?

Producing a lot more Stinger anti-aircraft missile to replenish American stockpiles and continue to supply Ukraine will be a test of the manufacturer's ability to ramp up production for war expenditure rates. I once read this is very hard for a weapon preparing to phase out in favor of a new missile. We'll see. 

This is interesting: "Why does the world seem so mad right now? There are two reasons. The first is the injection of implausible claims into our society. The second is the speed and volume at which they come: mainly thanks to social media." This issue isn't new: "If all the instruments of publicity--the printing press, radio, telegraph, and telephone--were used solely for the purpose of bringing to the people the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, it would be possible to solve the difficult problems that crowd upon us by the orderly process of evolution, and to escape bitter and fanatical controversies, wars and revolutions." (Fletcher Dobbins, The Amazing Story of Repeal, 1940). Speed and volume are always relative. And hope springs eternal.

Remember when Democrats were furious with the Bush 43 administration for trying to combat disinformation in Iraq that hindered our war effort with friendly writers in Iraq providing factual stories? Democrats said accurate information provided abroad to cooperative journalists could leak back into American media. Which the Democrats said was bad. But now the so-called Disinformation Governance Board is really about foreign disinformation affecting Americans. And that's all okey dokey. Also, I don't believe the DGB will be limited to overseas.

Yeah, the Army got rid of a lot of its "navy" and should restore LST-like capabilities for logistics and troop movement that doesn't rely on secured ports. This would be useful for Baltic Sea scenarios.

"Clean" and "renewable" energy requires a lot of land and scarce minerals. But Greens care about feeling morally superior, so it is all worth it.

Why would Putin put Lenin statues back up in Russian-occupied Ukraine? Germany sent Lenin to Russia to destroy the Russian government during World War I. How hard would it be to get paranoid Russian culture to wonder if China sent Putin to Russia to destroy this Russia?

Complications in northern Iraq.

How long before food riots break out in poor countries as prices rise because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and from Covid-19 lockdown supply chain problems? And who takes advantage of that unrest? Will jihadis manage to seize this opportunity in Moslem states?

Reservists will get a variation of the DD-214 discharge document. For a long time I just assumed all reservists got the DD-214 because I have one and my service was hardly exceptional. I may actually be a veteran under the rules. Which would explain why the VA informed me that my information was involved in a data breach some years ago. It's a mystery.

Iran sends its regards: "'Two rockets fell outside the Iraqi base of Ain al-Asad,' a security forces statement said, adding there were no 'losses.'"

Overturning Roe v. Wade doesn't make abortion illegal. It recognizes it isn't a Constitutional right. Congress and the states are the proper venues for addressing the issue. All I have to add is thank God striking down the decision is no longer an "anti-women" issue. Because the woke insist men can get pregnant. There's even an emoji for it. Although the left may take a crash course in biology to restore that line of attack. Oh, also, is the left going to destroy the credibility of the Supreme Court with leaks now that packing the court seems out of reach?

Well don't let the airlock hit you in the ass on the way out.

In the last data dump I mentioned this option if Putin uses nukes in Ukraine: "But rather than having only the choices of surrender or nuclear Armageddon, the Western powers may have another option open to them, and that is to counterattack sideways with a massive conventional response using their very large arsenal of precision-guided munitions (PGMs)." I doubt Russia would do this because who knows where that path leads.

Thumb on the scales. Always on one side. Always. Tip to Instapundit. 

The large amphibious warfare ship Tripoli is deploying as a light carrier to the western Pacific with a full load of 20 F-35Bs. I reported on this 15 years ago. I've been blogging a long time.

Sigh: "The new guns and ammunition the Army just married and is expected to issue to combat arms units within the next decade will require soldiers to carry an even heavier load." Loads carried only go up. I don't trust robotic mules because they will just allow officers to add more equipment and supplies--which soldiers will have to carry when the mule breaks down. 

Don't write off America: "The prior assumptions about Russia and China as emerging powers are now questionable at best. Things change, but today it’s hard to see a Russian resurgence or a rapid end to China’s economic problems. So if we are at the beginning of a cyclical shift, as I think we are, the U.S. will be one of the pillars of the transition to the new era. It is hard to visualize the rest." And the EU isn't about to defeat America-dominated NATO. 

I assume there is legal significance to this: "Ukraine has formally closed its four Black and Azov sea ports, which Russian forces have captured, the Ukrainian agriculture ministry said on Monday." In America's Civil War, the Union made and error of declaring a blockade of Southern ports--implying Confederate sovereignty--rather than declaring those ports closed to trade. 

Ride into the danger zone: "Six F-16 Fighting Falcons from the 510th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron arrived at Fetesti Air Base on April 29 to replace members of the 480th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron who initially answered NATO’s call for air policing in February."

The war in Ukraine is not over. Is this a reminder to people getting used to the war in Europe? I did comment that the world got over the initial panic about the Iran-Iraq War in the vital oil-exporting region

The Marines stationed in the Middle East region are preparing to carry out missions with a smaller routine presence.

Taiwan is concerned that weapons it has purchased from America will be delayed as supplying Ukraine takes priority.

As long as Russia is getting its ass kicked by Ukraine, these provocative actions don't intimidate the targets: "A Russian spy plane violated NATO airspace in recent days, prompting the Kremlin’s ambassador to Denmark to be summoned over the incident, the top Danish diplomat announced." Sweden is protesting, too.

It is hard to argue we aren't in an Age of the Absurd. I certainly won't deny it.

I'm not moved by a study that says higher rates of wearing masks is correlated with higher death rates. Higher death rates could promote higher mask usage rates. I'm not a mask freak. I don't like mandates and I don't wear them unless I must. I do think they have a positive effect, in general, depending on mask type, threat level, time in threat level, and user skill. I'm not buying the study as a condemnation of wearing masks.

The Marcos family returns. Uh oh. The big difference between then and now is that now China has plenty of money to feed the bribery machine.

I'm actually pleased that Democrats are all-in on helping Ukraine resist Russia. I'm not even bitter that Democrats were very friendly to the USSR and thought me a knuckle-dragger for opposing them. Democrats didn't even mind that the Soviets were pro-Democrat. But Democrats need to learn the lesson that evil must be fought. And even though Putin justifies his evil by saying he is fighting Nazis, just because he says it doesn't make it true.

While Russia focuses on Ukraine, Russia's other problems grow

If the fate of the EU relied on the French presidential election, the EU is too weak to survive as a proto-imperial state regardless of the victory of Macron--who pines to be in the throne when the prefix is removed. Do not be confused. An EU state is a threat to America and to European freedom.

Is Australia losing the South Pacific?

Members of the military are being discharged and court martialed for refusing to get the Xi Jinping Covid vaccine. How many federal civil servants have been fired for the same refusal?

Japan wants the ability to attack enemy nukes using conventional precision weapons

The Army reaches out to touch someone--even farther away--with the Precision Strike Missile. Moving ground or sea targets, too.

At this point it is fair to conclude that Californians are too stupid to live. Tip to Instapundit.

The jihadi terrorist group al Shabab struck African Union troops deployed in Somalia. The death and prisoner toll is disputed.

Smarty pants scientists. Explain who is anally probing Earthlings? And really, at this point we're asking for it (via Instapundit).

Russian disinformation fooled itself. The article doesn't go into the military disinformation, but despite propaganda, it has been clear to me that Russia's military was a sham. And I also wrote about the dangers of thinking you have a good military when you don't. Putin thought he had a good military. he doesn't. Added to the other things Russia fooled itself about and you have the Winter War of 2022 thus far.

Replacing the E-3 AWACS (Air Warning and Control) aircraft with the E-7A Wedgetail.

Ted Galen Carpenter accurately says Russia is treating Ukraine as a Russian vital interest. I'll quibble that Russia only thinks Ukraine is a vital interest because in reality there is no invasion threat from the west. But aside from that, Carpenter does what he always does. "Understanding" Russia glides easily into reasons for "accepting" Russian aggression. I say Ukraine is a Ukrainian vital interest that trumps Russia's paranoia-fueled interests.

Undermining American customs and institutions. No institution or custom is more than a means to get what they want.

How's that Russian "war" against NATO going? "Sweden’s foreign minister says her country has received security assurances from the U.S. if it decides to forge ahead with the process of joining NATO – a move that has been met with nuclear threats from Russia." Russia has spent so long pretending NATO is a threat that Putin finally believed his own BS. Bravo.

I'm going to guess that Russia vetoes the extension of the NATO-backed Bosnia peacekeeping mission. If Bosnia approves, I don't know why a multi-national operation outside of the UN couldn't continue the mission.

The Air Force successfully released a modified JDAM to hit a naval target: "It represents a major step forward in the Air Force’s ability to sink a ship." Good. The Air Force should be able to attack ships at sea. It sounds like the weapon is designed to hit below the waterline.

Army and special forces exercises across Europe.

Growing insurrection (via Instapundit). We all know who's been inciting the crowd (via Treacher).

Destroy the teacher unions before they destroy more children.

Interesting: "For the first time ever, a U.S. Navy Littoral Combat Ship, the Freedom class USS Sioux City, is operating in European waters." Much like I think the LCS is a fine tripwire force for the South China Sea, the LCS would be fine for the Baltic Sea. With lots of friendly ports nearby in case one of them breaks down at sea.

Unless the Army is playing budget games, counting on Congress to fund it, this is just monumentally stupid: "The U.S. Army late last year was nearly done with required testing to integrate a protection system on its Bradley combat vehicle fleet, but the service still isn’t seeking money to buy the Iron Fist in its next budget." Modern anti-armor weapons are quite good.

I don't buy that China seeks to be able to invade Taiwan in 2027. What capabilities do they lack now that they will get in 5 years? China has had the capability for decades if they want to take the risk and casualties.

Are our intelligence agencies capable of detecting terrorism threats to America if they develop in Afghanistan or Pakistan? The suggestion that "the age of mass-casualty Islamic terrorism may be ending" is intriguing. Did America's two-decades of war in the region after 9/11 hold the line long enough to reduce the threat? If so, that's victory. If not, we effed up losing Afghanistan where we could monitor the jihadis.

Ah yes, I'm from the government and I'm here to help: "Stock markets are set for more heavy selling this summer as central banks around the world ramp up interest rates to try to combat spiraling inflation, according to one economist." Speaking personally, I'm sure the government can strike that fine balance between protecting my current income from inflation while protecting my stock market buffer against inflation. I'll settle for stopping inflation and worry about the rest, later. I fear this government will make both worse. Tip to Instapundit.

The Army may revive 11th Airborne Division to command Army units in Alaska as the Army prepares those units for Arctic warfare.

The Biden administration has forgotten the first rule of Fight Club. Remember, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 but denied doing it. The West went along with that obvious fiction to avoid being shamed into opposing Russia. Why on Earth are we making it harder for Russia to ignore what everyone knows we are doing without boasting? Ah, Smart Diplomacy.® The U.S. did deny providing targeting information to Ukraine. I suspect we just confirmed it was a Russian target.

I'm not sure when tears of laughter changed to tears of despair:


Ditto:


Will we ever find the real collusion? Rule of law demands it. I liked it when we thought our biggest problem was teaching corrupt countries abroad to value rule of law. Tip to Instapundit.

The Chinese Communist Party rents-to-own at the Association of Former Members of Congress. Shame on those people. Via Instapundit.

Democrats have lost all tethers to reality by thinking that student loan debt relief only for those making less than $100-150,000 excludes the wealthy.

So no Taliban 2.0 as the administration said? "Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers on Saturday ordered all Afghan women to wear head-to-toe clothing in public, a sharp hard-line pivot that confirmed the worst fears of rights activists[.]"


Desperate times call for desperate rapid procurement methods.

North Korea test-fired a ballistic missile from an actual submarine and not a submerged barge

My Mauldin Economics email says "by freezing Russian bank accounts and seizing oligarchs’ assets, we have given Chinese communist leader Xi Jinping a convenient excuse to invade Taiwan. The reason he hasn’t done it so far, said Gave, is that he feared the exodus of wealthy Chinese investors. But now that he can show them that the West isn’t trustworthy when it comes to the safekeeping of their assets, he has the green light to do whatever he pleases." Doesn't that green light require wealthy Chinese investors to move their investments out of the West? Otherwise, doesn't seizing assets make investors resistance to invading Taiwan more intense? Wouldn't refusing to seize Russian oligarch assets reduce wealthy Chinese investor fear?

So? "Russia faced yet another military setback this week following reports that one of the country's most advanced tanks in service, the T-90M, was destroyed just days after it was deployed to Ukraine." We got spoiled waging war against Iraq in two conventional campaigns when the firepower-protection race for tank survival had swung heavily to protection. Historically, that hasn't been the natural state of affairs.

I've got to admit, I treat Sun Tsu like fortune cookie pronouncements.

There was a sizable protest against Fauci at Michigan Stadium Saturday afternoon. I assume he was giving a commencement address for MA and/or PhD graduates of some kind. If Public Health, the graduates can be grateful to have nothing to do with the clusterfuck our public health establishment engineered the last 26 months. Most protesters seemed to be in a caravan looping around the stadium and honking. There were no  extra barricades set up. Police were scattered around and many were directing pedestrian traffic across the streets from parking.

Likely jihadis killed 11 Egyptian troops in the Sinai peninsula.

Yawn: "As Russian soldiers, tanks, and military vehicles carrying ballistic missiles participate in a military parade next week, Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes the display sends a 'doomsday' warning to Europe and the United States, according to a report." Putin is only the latest practitioner of nuclear bluff in Moscow. We've been talking about possible nuclear escalation for two months. Hasn't Putin milked this enough?

Blah blah blah European elites in the proto-imperial European Union need to "transcend the continent’s bloody history of nationalism, imperialism and genocide" which the elites conveniently blame on the bloody-minded peasants rather than the past elites. Oh, and toss in "white privilege" for fun. End state: European elites strip away the prefix to keep the bloody-minded peasants from destroying Europe. Screw the EU elites.

Good Lord, why isn't this a higher priority to solve? "Supply chain issues around the world are fueling a shortage of baby formula -- and the problem is only getting worse." Tip to Instapundit.

Well, yeah, the Left does seem to be fascistic. Doesn't it? Democrats need to defeat their tyrants. Tips to Instapundit.

Land robots face massive challenges compared to sea and air robots. The goal? "Ultimately, the military wants systems that enable robotic trucks to safely move supplies over roads, or cross country, with only a few troops supervising a dozen or more robotic vehicles. This means you need fewer troops in the combat zone, and fewer troops will become casualties." But those robotic convoys need the ability to fight back against ambushes. If not, the supplies won't get through. And ultimately, more troops might die as more convoys are wiped out.

Is there anything more damning of communism than the fact that Putin's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted massive and critical grain exports from Russia and Ukraine? When the USSR controlled Russia and Ukraine (and much more), the USSR had to import grain. Yet prosperous Western morons keep insisting "true communism" hasn't been tried yet.

How is this Xi Jinping Flu virus going to last three years (and counting?) when the Spanish Flu lasted two? Is there something about this engineered virus that keeps it going?? Tip to Instapundit.