Updates on Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues in this post.
I'm sorry, but if you need to take shelter in case of nuclear war, the step after "place your head between your knees" is "kiss your mask goodbye." Tip to Instapundit.
Belarus said its cool with basing Russian nuclear weapons there. The Anschluss is complete. Or will this reignite Belarus resistance?
Build local, lose local. China smiles.
Nicole Hannah-Jones of 1619 infamy certainly has a hot take on Russia's invasion of Ukraine:
Will the Army suffer to rebuild the too-small Navy? The Army is small already. Given how we've spent too much for two decades across both parties, our national debt has decided what Army we will have this decade rather than what we need. Here's my warning the last time--25 years ago--there was an urge to reduce the Army below ten divisions.
Putin slammed America's "empire of lies." The man can coin a phrase. His lack of self awareness is, however, astounding.
I wish America's media was as vigilant about exposing numerous Democrats with Soviet admiration or aversion to resisting the USSR as they are about some conservatives who express admiration for Putin's leadership or who wonder if America has any interest in what happens in faraway Ukraine. I disagree strongly with those conservatives. But I'm old enough to remember how the Cold War worked in America in the 1970s and 1980s. Heck, just remember 2008.
Sucks to be China's vassal: "China said Beijing and Moscow are “partners” but not allies as it pledged not to interfere in the Ukraine crisis, reports Simina Mistreanu." Frenemy partners.
That's a totally sane Russian threat. Chimps with nukes.
If China decides to attack India rather than Taiwan during the Putin's war on Ukraine, will this be a sign that China is trying to cripple India's ability to buy Russian weapons? And so push Russia deeper into reliance on China? Just sheer speculation, naturally.
I bet the Chinese Communist Party is scrambling to see how a Western reaction to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, if on the scale of the reaction to Putin's invasion of Ukraine, would affect China's economy--and so the stability of the CCP.
Taking sides. Who is really shocked?
I'm just going to say that if China encouraged Russia to attack Ukraine, this would be an opportunity for China to deal with Russian 19th century land grabs from China.
Every time a spokesperson for Russia opens their mouth, I just get mad at their distortions. Make Russia Grate Again.
Good: "Iran has been seeking ways to regain its influence in Iraqi politics and so far, has been unsuccessful."
Iran is still fighting Syrians resisting Assad: "In southern Syria (Daraa and Suwayda provinces plus Damascus) over a thousand Iranian mercenaries arrived to help deal with locals protesting the Assad government and Iranian presence. The mercenaries were nearly all foreigners from Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan."
Japan and Britain will work jointly on an aircraft radar sensor antenna, complementing their project on a jet engine suitable for a stealth aircraft.
I'm fully on board arming Ukraine to fight Russia. And I'm fully on board reinforcing NATO. But let's not get bogged down in a direct fight with Russia when China looms over Asia with more military and economic power than Russia can deploy. That isn't being pro-Putin. And I really am just stunned how Jack D. Ripper the Democrats are over Russia. Welcome to the party, pal. Missed you during the latter Cold War.
It is true that I, too, did not think Russia would launch a broad invasion of Ukraine. I thought it was too much for Russia to easily achieve. I did think the odds of using his military for an objective less that conquering Ukraine was the most likely course of action, given all the attention the long mobilization focused on Putin. I just had no idea what the scope would be, speculating in a number of posts about what that might be. But I have dismissed Russia's self-proclaimed military prowess. Well before this war. Ukrainian resistance validated that assumption. But is Russia really a personal dictatorship under Putin now, as that initial article argues?
Ursula von der Leyen who is "the President of the European Commission has given a chilling analysis of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, describing it as a battle between 'the rule of law and the rule of the gun.'" Rule of law depends on good guys with guns. Sigh. She was the German defense minister.
FFS (via Instapundit): "While Russia wages a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. Army is putting its soldiers through training on gender pronouns and coaching officers on when to offer soldiers gender transition surgery, according to an official military presentation on the subject[.]" Too many American leaders believe there are infinite substitutes for victory.
Victor Hanson: "Putin feels that Russia was once a great player (defined mostly as 'feared') in world affairs. But now it—i.e., he— is not. He thinks if he can grab back some of the old Soviet Union’s now lost 100 million people and 30 percent of its territory, then his Russia would again become a superpower—especially given the natural wealth of his former Soviet republics." Via Instapundit.
Via Instapundit: "Only 62.2 percent of students complete a degree or certificate within six years." To be fair, that's what the statistics measure. I took 7.5 years. So I didn't graduate according to those statistics. I earned a double major and went on for a MA. But I'm a determined sort.
Will Taiwan learn from Ukraine that it has to take its defense far more seriously? Taiwan needs to buy full spectrum combat capabilities and not rely on "asymmetric" means to inflict casualties on the PLA to buy time for foreign intervention. If Taiwan can't drive the invaders into the sea, Taiwan may be doomed.
Talk of a NATO fly zone will redline Putin's paranoia meter. Why? Recall Libya in 2011: "What we did is trick the Arab League into asking for a 'no-fly zone' over Libya's cities to keep Khaddafi from bombing civilians. Then we got a UN Security Council resolution, using the Arab League request as leverage, authorizing NATO to bomb Khaddafi's forces to protect civilians. Then we expanded the bombing campaign to regime change and then armed and trained rebels who then came to use the NATO air forces as their air support to break the Khaddafi regime after more than half a year." Russia, which withheld its UNSC veto, considered itself tricked.
We need to give India a break on this: "India's unwillingness to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine is causing irritation in the United States." India needs Russian weapons to face India. Which causes Russia-China friction. Which we want. Let's not make pursuit of perfect get in the way of good. Good grief, and I thought I lack nuance?
Reaction: "The 14,000 U.S. troops activated in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may not be the last, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday." I don't know how many will go to Europe during Putin's war on Ukraine. But I will say that most won't be coming back. I've long wanted a bigger Army presence in Europe (pp. 15-20).
This is a really interesting article on Russian logistics weakness. Things haven't gotten better since the last time Russia invaded Ukraine. Is a Narva scenario the most likely Russian attack option against NATO given Russia's problem in sustaining a sizable offensive against opposition across its border?
The unexpected training opportunity on the carrier Vinson that went well.
South Korea's navy "seeks to deploy a light aircraft carrier by 2033. [... Seemingly] the carrier will displace around 45,000 tons and carry an air wing of 24-28 short take-off and vertical landing aircraft alongside a complement of helicopters." The blue water drive continues as any great trading power would do.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "The Pentagon is deciding if it should add more U.S. troops to NATO-member countries in Eastern Europe on a permanent basis following Russia’s attack on Ukraine last week, a top Defense Department official said Tuesday."
The Biden administration hid the failure of the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle behind the facade of the technically proficient military evacuation operation. Sadly, the operation scooped up nearby people to pad the numbers rather than evacuate locals who helped us. Worse, we may have imported terrorists. Tip to Instapundit.
A heartbeat from being the commander-in-chief: “So Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that’s wrong.” This scared me more than Russian nuclear threats.
Huh: "'To the Russian protesters, I say thank you. Thank you for your bravery,' Thomas-Greenfield continued. 'To the Russian soldiers sent to the front lines of an unjust, unnecessary war, I say your leaders are lying to you, do not commit war crimes, do everything you can to put down your weapons and leave Ukraine.'" I'm so old I remember when Democrats said American support for Iranian dissidents "tainted" them as American allies. To be fair, that was more about a strange love of mullah-run Iran.
The Hypocrisy of Coca-Cola (via Instapundit):
This is bullshit masquerading as nuance. The professor basically says the Cold War was wrong because after the NATO won that struggle it should have refused to let the USSR in its Russia successor lose the territory and influence it had conquered. Fuck that. We weren't too hard on Russia. We were too easy on it. "Peace studies" professors always think the good guys can give up enough to satisfy the bad guys.
I don't blame Ukraine for trying to get NATO to intervene. But it would be the height of strategic folly to intervene. If NATO was willing to intervene it should have admitted NATO prior to the war to try to deter Russia. Now, NATO owes Ukraine the means to fight. NATO is doing that. America helped Britain when it was alone against Nazi Germany. Britain fought. It is up to Ukraine to fight this war. God help them.
Putin continues to make friends and influence people: "Two Russian SU27 and two SU24 fighter jets briefly entered Swedish airspace east of the Swedish island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea[.]"
Making lemonade: "French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday said Russia's invasion of Ukraine underlined the need for Europe's defence strategy to go into a new phase." Never let a crisis go to waste when it could strengthen the EU. Which is convenient for Macron. Oh, you think this is based on his moral outrage at Russia?
Not refrain from invading, just don't ruin our pageant: "China asked Russia to wait until after the Olympics to launch their invasion of Ukraine, the New York Times reported, citing U.S. intelligence officials."
One source of invasion problems: "The February 24 Russian invasion of Ukraine is revealing to the rest of the world problems the Russian military has suffered from for over a century. It’s all about conscription and, since 1917, the Russian government not trusting their troops and Russians now going to extremes to avoid being conscripted." A traditional means of overcoming that in battle is massive firepower.
While this would be legal it would be seen as an act of war--not a substitute for it: "On Monday, Rep. Lance Gooden, R-Texas, introduced to Congress a bill which, if passed, would authorize the president of the United States to issue letters of marque and reprisal to seize Russian property."
That seems prudent: "Taiwan plans to more than double its yearly missile production capacity to close to 500 this year[.]"
The damage the American Seawolf-class sub suffered when it hit an underground mountain in the South China Sea. Don't know if it will be repaired.
Follow the scientists. Really. Watch them closely.
Russia can't be appeased with concessions by NATO. Russia has a problem with NATO, and indeed the West itself. Do read it all. My shorter version of this. The Part two for the first link article. However, I disagree strongly with her claim that a Trump election in 2024 ends NATO.
I ran across my thoughts about Russia's threat to Ukraine back in April 2021.
Endorsed: "I hated Russia when hating Russia wasn’t cool, and now I’m watching libs fall all over themselves to prove they want nothing to do with the Russkies. Red-baiting is back in a big way, but this time it’s coming from the left." Although I hoped that Russia might join the West. I still hope for that. Maybe after Putin is gone and Russians purge his supporters.
I'm old enough to remember when there was panic that the start of the Iran-Iraq War that the world's oil supply could figuratively go up in flames. What would the world do about this pending catastrophe? But then the worst didn't happen, the war dragged on, and the war became background noise for the world. The world got used to the Donbas front stalemate after 2014. If Russia falters and there is a front line and a stalemate from Belarus to the south, will the world get used to that, too, and stop worrying about nuclear escalation?
Pictures of Ukrainian troops as they "keep position" in the Luhansk region, on the Donbas front. I suspect this is to conceal a withdrawal after previous days attacks knocked the enemy back and perhaps deter quick pursuit. So I didn't want to put this on my main update page. Not that I have a large audience. But I'd still rather publish this later.
The American economy pretty much recovered from the Covid-lockdown recession by the end of 2020. Tip to Instapundit.
To be fair, Iran won't let the Yemen Houthi conduct real ceasefire negotiations.
Given Democrats' recent decent into an anti-Russian frenzy, will Russian-Iranian ties (via Instapundit) finally break the hearts of Democrats who seem to love mullah-run Iran? [later] Welp, my hope died fast. A deal is near that will no doubt shield Iran's path to nuclear weapons. Our government really is that stupid, isn't it?
Well sure (via The Morning Briefing): "the US military plans to extend its space awareness capabilities beyond geostationary orbit, all the way to the Moon." But beyond that a Space Navy is needed. And don't forget to create SMOD!
The Navy recovered the F-35C that it lost as sea.
It's been nine years. Fry him already.
I really don't get sophisticated nuance. Don't pretend that this frenzy isn't being fueled by the left side of the aisle. Are we a week away from our government ordering Russian-Americans to internment camps for the duration? How prophetic I was last week.
American government and Congressional leaders don't need to mention the possibility of Russians removing Putin to end the war against Ukraine. Anyone willing to do that already knows. I've been arguing since 2014 that only body bags going back to Russia can deter Putin. But some of the reactions against all Russians--or even leaders discussing killing Putin (hey, I can do that, I'm an obscure civilian)--is nuts.
The Russians blocked Twitter and Facebook. Just how bad is Russian media when those two platforms are more factual?
I've had plenty of first-hand experience--including car damage--from this:
I don't care how much Putin and Xi claim undying friendship. Russia stripping its military in the Far East to fight Ukraine has got to be a temptation. Did Russia really buy five years of peace with China?
Uh oh. The war in Europe is making Egypt's food supply problem worse.
Yeah, I've imagined American Air Force pilots weeping in frustration:
Of the American troops heading to eastern Europe just in case, the 300 in the U.S. going to the forward elements of the V Corps headquarters in Poland is most interesting. Controlling large numbers of troops might be important.
Heh:
Sure, understanding intent from satellite photos is difficult. The enemy knows you see them, after all. So movements can be to deceive. And the enemy may time movements around satellite passes. And keep in mind that surprise hinges on the enemy's thinking. The intelligence of a pending Russian invasion was loudly broadcast by America and Britain. But until the last minute, the Ukrainians thought there was another explanation and did not seem to react.
Really, these are tears of laughter. My fetal position? No comment:
I've long seen Jennifer Griffin as really good at her job. She's a rarity on air.
At this rate, Alphabet will simply absorb it: "Oregon Gov. Kate Brown blasts Texas, says she stands with “LGBTQ2SIA+” children. Really." Tip to Instapundit.
So we're going to assume that Russia is trying to help America prevent Iran from going nuclear? "Lavrov said Russia wanted a written guarantee from the United States that Russia's trade, investment and military-technical cooperation with Iran would not be hindered in any way by the sanctions."
Americans don't trust Biden on a nuclear deal with Iran (via Instapundit). To be fair, trust in him on anything is far and few in between.
Our energy situation is exactly what the Green loons voted for.
I imagine China is annoyed with Russia for alarming the Western world over security issues--and dragging China into this alarm through their so-called alliance. That applies whether Russia conquers Ukraine or not.
The U.S. government has urged Americans to leave Russia "immediately." And leave with nothing but your ID, cash, credit card, and maybe your phone with every app and photo taken in Russia deleted. And every email and text sent or received while in Russia deleted. To prevent the Russians from finding something recently made illegal on you.
As long as we're rooting out Russian influence, let's deal with Russian funding of anti-fossil fuel groups in America. Collusion is bad, right? Tip to Instapundit.
Gosh, that's not silly at all. Tip to Instapundit.
Struggling to improve American port cyber-security.
Russia's brain drain. Might Putin restore Soviet border controls to stop that? Or will idiotic anti-Russian measures in the West that mistake Russians here for Putin there do the job for Putin? Lord, even in the Cold War we had the wisdom to see most Russians who fled the USSR as assets in the struggle.
The European Union is leveraging fears of Russia's invasion to push forward its EU military ambitions. If supporting Ukraine was the objective the EU would work through the existing military body, NATO, to do that. The EU never wastes a crisis to advance its imperial goals.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, I've found that my computer is almost
completely unusable in the morning during weekdays as the system updates
and anti-malware software uses up my old computer's capacity. This has
happened before. But not this consistently. It can take an hour and a
half to use my computer. Sometimes I have to just hold the power button
and force a shutdown. Is there a quiet cyberwar going on as American
companies try to stay ahead of potential or actual Russian cyberwar? If
so, is the war suspended on the weekend?
It makes no sense for Democrats to be pushing a renewed Iran nuclear deal (via Instapundit)? It makes no sense until you recall Democrats' bizarre unrequited love for mullah-run Iran. Oh, and also, Biden is going to rescue Venezuela from its particularly inept brand of socialism. Because Russia? Smart Diplomacy®
It is not a double standard that Europeans are more open to refugees from Ukraine. Ukraine is in Europe. Where should Ukrainian refugees go? Russia? Japan? Brazil? Refugees from wars in distant Middle Eastern and African countries should seek refuge in nearby countries. Anything else is migration that countries have the right to refuse.
It would certainly make a lovely "life boat" in the back of any decent sized pickup truck.
Putin continues to make friends and influence people: "Sweden and Finland will further strengthen their security cooperation in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the prime ministers of both countries said on Saturday, but they were non-committal on joining NATO."
