I read that people are more attractive wearing a mask. Perhaps for your average dog-faced pony soldier, that is true. But I shall not deny the ladies my essence visage by wearing a mask. You're welcome.
It is an excellent point--do read it all--that the Thucydides Trap in part relies on fear of losing part of your coalition to the other side and not simply a power transition. I knew that. I'm abashed I did not point that out. I've addressed distance as lessening the trap. But I've pointed out America's alliance maintenance problem.
Indeed: "Russian forces controlled by the 8th Combined Arms Army ... have been in the Donbas region of Ukraine since 2014. The Kremlin has consistently denied that any of its military forces are there, however, attributing all military activities and capabilities in occupied Donbas to its DNR and LNR proxies. The West has accepted this fiction[.]" So-called hybrid warfare relies on this acceptance.
FFS. Some people really are honored to be their victim. They can hear the quietest racist "dog whistle" but can't see jihadis when they figuratively scream "Allahu akbar" in our face.
You will hear stories that Chinese planes violate Taiwanese air space. Not true. Chinese warplanes enter Taiwan's air defense identification zone, which Taiwan defines to identify threats far from actual air space in time to react. China is a threat. But is not violating international law in this case.
How is that progressives can hear racist dog whistles everywhere but can't see jihadi terrorism when it figuratively screams "Allahu akbar! in their face?
I've long worried about this internal Israeli problem.
Biden effed up the withdrawal from Afghanistan by thinking our allies would keep fighting without any sign we'd help them win. But Trump erred in thinking we could negotiate peace with an enemy that wanted total victory while we strove for stalemate.
How America now helps Iran finance its hostile foreign policy.
NBA Golden State Warriors owner Chamath Palihapitiya: "Let's go, Brandon Uighurs!" Via Instapundit.
The other navy: "The Coast Guard is in the midst of its largest shipbuilding period since World War II, the head of the service said during a Wednesday address."
I don't think China would "cut North Korea loose" because without Chinese involvement, a nuclear-armed North Korea might hate China as much as it hates America, Japan, and South Korea. The idea that territorial buffers are obsolete today is contradicted by Russia's obsession in Europe.
Is Ukraine right to worry that Biden could throw Ukraine under the bus for a "peace for our time" photo-op? "Western leaders at the negotiating table should remember that Ukrainians deserve to be able to plan their lives according to their dreams, not according to Mr. Putin’s imperialistic obsessions."
Could China get outposts behind the first island chain in the Pacific to thwart our plans to contain China's fleet? Possible. The outposts might not last long. But China just needs to delay American intervention to defeat Taiwan.
I return his contempt: "Speaking Tuesday at Morehouse College and Clark Atlanta University, Biden uttered venomous, brutal accusations lacking factual basis." Let's go, Brandon. Tip to Instapundit.
China's "zero Covid" policy led China to (via Instapundit) close its ports. It will harm the rest of the world. Can China endure the collateral damage on itself? I hope our intelligence agencies study this "blockade" to note effects. Also, that's one way to clear up our port unloading backlog.
Yes, how did the Colleyville, Texas jihadi get into America with his "long criminal record"? How many more have gotten in over the last year? And when will they be ready to strike? Was Iran's "prediction" based on inside knowledge?
Executive summary: "To be sure, as a general principle we need to stand firm when dealing with Putin." But this time we should totally appease Putin and throw Ukraine under the bus.
At this point, getting the Omicron variant would be almost a relief. It's finally weak. But I'd still rather put it off until it is merely one type of a common cold. I don't think we're there yet.
Is it time to break the diplomatic "deadlock" with North Korea? It's taking more time than I hoped, but I think we can stick with "talk, talk. Die, die" without worrying about getting an agreement.
Mayor Adams tells wussy New Yorkers to stop being afraid in the mostly peaceful subways. Removing the perception of fear is a higher priority than removing the criminal source of fear.
After a jihadi attack, some amazingly worry more about the potential "backlash" than the actual "lash."
Finally, Communist China finally did something worthy of being cancelled. NBA? Hollywood? Anyone? Bueller?
Huh: "Raisi insisted that Iran would not negotiate with the West until the 2018 sanctions were first lifted. ... Raisi had the support of the religious dictatorship in Iran as well as the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) for this desperate, 'all or nothing' negotiating strategy." Well, I hoped that attitude would save us from the first horrible deal.
Bullshit with end notes. Iran will either get nukes or get nukes and Western money. I choose not to pay Iran for their nuclear ambitions.
More on China's claim to have heat-seeking hypersonic missiles. More important, America is working on it, too. I mentioned the Chinese news a few weeks ago. Why it could be significant.
Strategery: "Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he wants NATO to reduce its presence in Eastern European countries that were once part of the Soviet bloc but his actions are achieving the opposite, said NATO’s chief." Bravo. #WhyRussiaCantHaveNiceThings
Given its record, I'm worried about the Navy new major ship design concept. But if technology is to evolve instead of leap, that's good. And really, we already paid for some of the technology. The answer to my question is 6-1/2 years.
Germany helped Russia improve their military. And other NATO countries did, too. Germany learned nothing the first time. But at least then Germany was buying time to get ready for war. Now it is the opposite. What is Germany's major malfunction?
I think the woke storm troopers of the Democratic Party are honestly shocked that they couldn't punish America endlessly without eventually getting a hostile reaction. Tip to Instapundit.
Well, Russia under Putin is a hostile band of lying barbarians these days.
The sources of Kazakhstan's recent unrest remain in place. This was not a coup that could be ended by arresting the coup leader.
Fine. But you can't then tell us what schools to fund with our tax dollars. That's a fair trade. Tip to The Morning Briefing.
Is the Tonga huge volcano explosion over or the sign of bigger eruptions to come?
Cambodia pledges to be carbon neutral by 2050. Yeah, that's Cambodia's biggest problem. Unless this is a scam to attract Western money. In which case, bravo.
Competence. Via Instapundit.
Iran struck the UAE via Iran's Houthi hand puppets. It is highly unlikely that the Houthi attacked. But Iran ordered them to take the blame. The Houthi are losing in Yemen.
If Israel attacks Iran's nuclear infrastructure, it would be good to have a shield against Iranian missiles: "Israel said Tuesday it has successfully tested a system designed to intercept ballistic missiles outside the earth's atmosphere."
Seriously, what is Germany's major malfunction? Britain shipped anti-tank weapons to Ukraine around German air space to avoid Germany's opposition to helping Ukraine. Denials all around. But Britain knew not to ask.
There is no need to avoid giving Russia a pretext to invade Ukraine because Russia will manufacture one regardless of reality.
The fruits of Anschluss: "Russian military forces and hardware began arriving in ex-Soviet Belarus for joint drills starting in February, Minsk said on Monday, amid soaring tensions between East and West over Ukraine." That's a problem.
The Marines aren't exclusively focused on sinking Chinese ships.
The Chinese foreign minister has quite the future in stand-up comedy. LOL: "China will not use its strength to 'bully' its smaller neighbours including the Philippines, its foreign minister said on Monday, as he highlighted the importance of settling disputes in the South China Sea peacefully."
Ef the Russians, who accuse "Ukrainian leadership of hatching plans to use force to reclaim control of the Russian-backed rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine." As if it would even be wrong for Ukraine to liberate territory Russia conquered.
People are tired of the oppressive pandemic theater that the Xi Jinping Flu has become. Like I said (figuratively, of course):
AOC somehow survived the end of net neutrality, January 6th, and now the Dread Omicron. Nice run, but we already know that climate change will kill her any year now. She's Walter Mitty, with Instagram.
Russia might install nuclear missiles close to America (via Instapundit)? What? Isn't their freaking Kraken enough? To be fair, who knows if Russia's massive nuclear ICBM arsenal even works?
Hey, you effed up. You trusted--and worshiped--him. Via Treacher.
This is why rule-of-law is necessary to prevent the tyranny of the majority. In unrelated news, 45% of Democrats would apparently make fine concentration camp guards.
Not shocking: "Iranian negotiators have left for Vienna to resume talks aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). According to Iran, much of the text for the terms to bring both sides into the deal has already been written." Duh.
Putin may miss the USSR, but worse for him he must miss the USSR's military: "The Russian military, three decades after the Soviet Union collapsed, still has less than 20 percent of the manpower the Soviets maintained and a population willing to tolerate some foreign military adventures as long as few, if any, Russian soldiers are killed."
China's advantage over Taiwan is increasing. Taiwan really needs to arm up before it is too late.
We'll see if this warning is still active by the time this post publishes: "The White House believes Russia could launch an invasion of Ukraine at any moment, press secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday, warning that an 'extremely dangerous situation' is building along the Ukrainian border." The scope would be smaller given that the force is still judged to be 100,000 strong.
More about those artillery systems Taiwan bought from America.
Voices of intolerance and hate. This is our Left which speaks for Democrats. When will Democrats end their reign of error?
The problem with America "sitting out" Ukraine in order to conserve power to confront China is that if Russia eventually gains Ukraine, American power will need to be diverted to NATO to confront a larger and closer Russian threat. If Russia invades Ukraine, NATO need to help Ukrainians send body bags back to Russian mothers.
America is totally unprepared for war in Europe? True. But it is likely more true for Russia. But yeah, Russia must be resisted. If Russia attacks, bounce the ruble.
The FBI couldn't tell the truth about a successful ending to a terrorist hostage incident?? Via Instapundit.
The Navy may not be able to afford many amphibious warfare ships. Perhaps smaller APDs could bulk up the fleet, as I suggested in Proceedings.
Is Mexico headed for a major internal crisis of violence that destabilizes the state? Could be. But I expected that Obama might have his first foreign crisis there.
Help Ukraine kill Russian troops.
Worst come to worst, that would be good: "American officials have told allies that the Pentagon and CIA would both support an armed insurgency." But for God's sake put one in charge and avoid the clusterfuck of our Syria efforts: "Syrian rebels we support sometimes fight each other depending on whether our CIA or Defense Department provide the support."
Biden lost our war in Afghanistan. So naturally it is time to release even the most dangerous prisoners. We stopped fighting. Our jihadi enemies have not. What could possibly go wrong? Via Instapundit.
Fixed databases are a monument to the stupidity of man: "The gunman who took four people hostage at a Texas synagogue in a 10-hour standoff that ended in his death was checked against law enforcement databases before entering the U.S. but raised no red flags, the White House said."
Greece draws in France to check Turkey while improving Greek air power with French Rafale planes.
The United States announced an additional $200 million in military aid to Ukraine.
I used to dislike teacher unions. After what they did to our children during the pandemic, I hate them and want them disbanded. With any luck, most teachers share my disgust (via Instapundit).
I recently mentioned that I wanted to stop addressing domestic political issues. But the opposition is too insane to do that. Oh, my optimism five years ago was almost adorable.
We'll see if Russia's Baltic fleet amphibious ships go to the Black Sea. And if so, would Russia try for Odessa? Quite possible. I don't know what Putin would risk. Or how badly he could ef things up. It might be a bridge too far if Ukraine resists and counterattacks. Could they sail to the Sea of Azov to envelope Mariupol in concert with an overland assault? Maybe the ships are heading for Syria.
It might be wise to review what Russian artillery is capable of. Video analysis at the post.
The FBI is coasting on reputation. I'm honestly amazed jihadis haven't hit us hard given what it has become. How many of the top levels need to be fired before we get to the professionals? Tip to Instapundit.
The Philippines continues rearming. Which might come in handy.
Biden was hidden from voters during 2020. But now he is trotted out to frighten allies and reassure enemies. And to set a blurry red line. He takes a harder line with Sinema and Manchin than he does with Putin. Tips to Instapundit.
Well yes, NATO is valuable today. Which means it was useful in the past despite critics, given it would be difficult to re-form now for its original mission.
Russia just wants to see Africa burn.
Ostpolitik 2.0: "Germany has sought to placate Russia by taking some of the West’s most powerful deterrents off the table." If this cripples NATO, America and Europeans will suffer.
One thing I will say about the Biden administration's claim that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely. If Russia doesn't attack, or makes a small attack, the administration can claim it deterred Russia. It might even be correct.
Until solar, wind, and Unicorn farts reach their full potential, Europeans can thank American natural gas for their winter energy problem not being worse than it is.
Consequences: "The United States will send more troops to eastern European NATO members, including Poland or Romania, if Russian President Vladimir Putin moves forward with an invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden said Wednesday." I always wanted to keep a corps in Europe, as I argued in Military Review (pp.15-20). But a heavy one, now.
Sure, that's convenient. But with a death warrant you get TSA preclearance!
How long will Russia risk vassal status? "China would bend Russia to its will after defeating the United States. It has begun its preparatory work already ..." What is Putin's major malfunction?
The U.S. will allow NATO Baltic states to send missiles to Ukraine. I hope we replace them quickly.
The United States sent a signal to Russia by disclosing that one of our SSGNs is in the Mediterranean Sea. They can carry 154 conventional cruise missiles. The signal is only potentially useful if Russia intends a major invasion.
More on the Russian amphibious warfare ship deployment. Can Ukraine sink them? An amphibious landing is high risk. How many dead Russians washing ashore does Putin want to risk being televised? Or is it a feint to tie down Ukrainian forces on the coast?
It's almost as if the Biden strategy for 2022 elections was to stand back and let a friendly media be the wind beneath Democrats wings. Hey, it worked before.
While we need to face communist China as it is now, keep in mind that modernization and prosperity haven't turned China into a democracy--yet. Nobody said the CCP would welcome democracy. The question is whether forces the CCP can't resist have been created.
Well: "Russia is sending troops from the country’s far east to Belarus for major war games, officials said Tuesday[.]" Did Russia think this through? Or did its rulers just drink vodka until it made sense?
From the "well, duh" files (cross-indexed to "news from 2013"): "The U.S. Air Force needs to spend more to protect its Pacific bases from Chinese missiles, Secretary Frank Kendall said Wednesday."
The problem is that Democratic Party leadership is too much in touch with the tiny Twitter activist class. Via Instapundit.
It's justice delayed. I'm hoping it isn't justice denied.
I ordered the Covid tests. I paid for them already so why not have them just in case? Winter shipping to Michigan might be a problem. Of course, that assumes the tests are mailed before June, I suppose.
Biden said in his press conference that the Republicans might win in the November elections if Congress doesn't pass its Democratic Party voting changes. To be fair, the effort worked the last time.
Teachers have a point that public schools are, at least in part, supposed to teach children what our society needs them to know. But that used to be teaching the children of immigrants how to be Americans. Now public schools teach kids how to be part of the tiny Twitter woke society and to be ashamed of America. Big difference. So yeah, ef them and the unions they rode in on.
Well, Netflix will raise their prices again. I'd vowed to dump them if they did that. In some good timing I'd just read a what's coming in February list and saw zero things I'm interested in. But I won't cancel. I'll dial it down to the basic plan. I'll hold the line there until it reaches my current bill and then bail out.
Biden is returning America to those thrilling days of yesterday when "unbelievably small" American actions would deter aggressors.
Preparations for invasion or bolstering the bluff?
True: "Putin will only engage in small, low-cost wars that are likely to yield a limited number of Russian casualties." But smaller objectives are possible. Or Putin could ef up. And sometimes stuff happens. Also, if Ukraine isn't moving toward the West, Putin will drag it toward Russia.
To me it seems as if the European Union is failing to mobilize what it has--economic power--to block Russia because the proto-imperial state pines for political and military power in order to strip away the prefix.
Excellent video on Russian military preparations and options.
How ... feudal: "[Russia's small wars] are
financed by members of Putin’s inner circle. They don’t come directly
out of state budgets. ... The oligarchs who
funded the annexation of Crimea, for example, received a
multibillion-dollar contract to build a bridge connecting that peninsula
over the Kerch Strait to Russia." This means of finance requires short and/or small victorious wars.Which the Russians hope their nuclear weapons can enforce after achieving gains.
The Army tested an F-35 as a forward observer for artillery. It's a Project Convergence thing. Good.
The Walrus Deception. Not a James Patterson book. Tip to Instapundit.
Spoiler alert: It's all about Xi's power and not about fighting corruption: "China has vowed to ramp up its regulatory crackdown and show "no mercy" against corruption as the ruling Communist Party gears up for a key meeting that could secure President Xi Jinping a third term."
Perhaps America should be sending older tanks from storage to our new NATO allies, who then send old Soviet tanks to Ukraine; while producing new ones for our troops who lack the most up-to-date ones. Tanks in storage to new NATO allies; those old Soviet tanks to Ukraine; new tanks to U.S. troops; older replaced U.S. tanks to storage. Hopefully this would help sustain the Ukrainians in a longer war.
Biden is certainly doing things consistent with how somebody under Putin's control would act. "Consistent with" is the term of art for implying something that doesn't exist, isn't it?
Pelosi's January 6th committee is acting in an unconstitutional manner by being a quasi-executive body. And a shady mafia-style body, too. Via Instapundit.
If Space Force doesn't protect American orbiting and Moon-based assets, what's the point of having a Space Force?! I don't expect NASA to do the job. And if not, Elon Musk may do it himself with his massive swarm of satellites that could double as projectiles.
Another fire at a Kuwaiti oil facility? No way this isn't Iran: "A fire erupted at a Kuwait refinery: "This is the second fire to erupt at the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery in as little as three months." I pretty much assume Iran is responsible."
Look, their "parliament" wouldn't do this without orders from Putin: "Russia's parliament will hold consultations next week on an idea to appeal to President Vladimir Putin to recognise two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent states, the chamber's speaker said on Friday."
The Air Force wants to be able to deploy air wings faster: "Air Combat Command has designated five units to serve as “lead wings” as the Air Force looks to overhaul its force generation model and pivot to strategic competition with China and Russia."
I certainly hope we provide overwatch, by this point: "A guided-missile destroyer steamed past two disputed island chains in the South China Sea this week, provoking demands from China’s military that the U.S. cease its freedom-of-navigation patrols in the region[, ... 'otherwise it will bear the serious consequences of unforeseen events[.]'"
Was Biden's "incursion" gaffe actually an inadvertent revelation that the fix is in for a Russian "minor" incursion that America will accept? Pelosi would have started impeachment again if Trump had done it. Tip to Instapundit.
No! Way! But the FBI assured us his target motive was a mystery! How did that man even get into America?
If it doesn't move unless a human moves it, it isn't a clock. A clock implies relentless advance you can't stop. Give it a rest, guys. Via Treacher.
It would be better to put them in our national stockpile: "the White House said Wednesday it will make available 400 million N95 masks to Americans at no cost." There are costs. Past to pay for them. And in the future in another pandemic.
I believe the proper response is to tell them to ef themselves: "NATO rejected on Friday Russian demands to withdraw its forces from Romania and Bulgaria[.]" Which Russia is used to under Putin.
The Silent Eagle. I like having a Plan B to replace losses of our stealth fighters in war. But it can't compete with the F-35 for sales.
Why is Putin wetting his pantskies over Ukraine? "'We have nowhere to retreat', Putin said. 'They have taken it to the point where we simply must tell them: "Stop!"'"
That's nice to know: "[THAAD] intercepted a ballistic missile on Monday during a deadly attack by Houthi militants in Abu Dhabi, marking the system’s first known use in a military operation[.]" I assume that was an Iranian missile, BTW. I can only wish that the world yawned as hard if Ukraine was regularly flinging missiles at Russian bases in Russian-occupied Crimea.
I'm not sure why we should negotiate any new deals with Russia regarding Ukraine. We already had a perfectly good one in 1994, which Putin shredded.
In space, no one can hear Roscosmos scream?
As we wonder whether Russia will invade Ukraine, Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues at a low roar in the Donbas.
And if Iran wouldn't get mad, Biden might do it: "A coalition of Republican lawmakers is pressuring the Biden administration to redesignate the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels as a terror group following this week’s large-scale attack on the United Arab Emirates." Biden removed the designation last year. Via Instapundit.
I'd think that Putin's argument that Russia won't have influence in Ukraine if it joins NATO is undermined by the record of Germany, whether now (for example) or its West Germany predecessor.
If enemies don't think their time arrived with the election of Biden or the skedaddle debacle in Afghanistan, they know it now: "To watch Biden at the lectern was to experience shock and dismay
interspersed with moments of alarm and dark humor. No wonder he hides
from the media."
Could Russia's show of force and belligerence just be shielding an effort in the Donbas to expand Russian territory with only locals and mercenaries doing the dying?
If the Taliban are so big on Allah saving them, let him: "Afghanistan under the Taliban may teeter under the brink of a systematic collapse." I'd send aid to countries to the north and west of Afghanistan to help refugees fleeing collapse. But let the Pushtun Taliban run to Pakistan and let Pakistan and China pay for that. And if our former allies return to power? Help them.
Russia is weaker than the USSR and further east; and China is much stronger. I guarantee that America will ride to the rescue in Europe more than Europe will ride to the rescue in Asia. NATO promised in 2014 to spend more (2% of GDP) on defense by 2024 to handle that reality. How's that going?
The British F-35B that sank in the Mediterranean may have been recovered.
If Russia just wants to wreck Ukraine's military, does it have enough long-range precision weapons to do the job without invading?
The Pentagon doesn't care about left-wing or Islamist extremism in the ranks. Some extremism is more deplorable than others, comrades.
Good. But restock their armories quickly: "Estonia will provide Javelin anti-armor missiles, while Lithuania and Latvia will provide Stinger anti-aircraft missiles [to Ukraine.]"
As I noted long ago, Russian aggression against Ukraine kills the motivation for stopping nuclear proliferation. And I warned about the problem much earlier.
Another reminder that America's shipbuilding and ship repair capacity has eroded dangerously. Start recruiting those young men increasingly shunned by America's increasingly useless and counterproductive colleges for the skilled jobs necessary to fix that.
A "global" exercise of floating crap. Russia's navy is a sad version of the Soviet fleet. Which is actually good for Russia because Russia basically needs SSBNs and a coast guard+.
Via Instapundit: "Ted Cruz jabbed actor Tom Hanks after the latter narrated a video
produced by Joe Biden’s Presidential Inaugural Committee celebrating his
first year in office saying, 'The Simpsons did it first!'"
If the court ruling to ban Covid-19 vaccination requirements for military personnel holds, this addresses my comments that military personnel are only required to obey lawful orders from their chain of command. Which I didn't think was necessarily settled.
Good: "Intel is investing $20 billion into a new semiconductor manufacturing “mega-site” in Ohio[.]" Via Instapundit. I went without a car for over three months last year because of the chip shortage.
It must be very comforting to leftist to know that every political opponent is a Nazi, neo-Confederate, or white nationalist.
I certainly want Russia to side with the West against China. And I think it is in Russia's long-term interest, too. But throwing Ukraine under the bus is a poor foundation for achieving that.
Does Russia already have a Ukrainian puppet selected, if Russia invades? Um, duh?
If the jihadis breached the perimeter of the prison and killed many Syrian Kurds, why isn't a hail of JDAMs the answer to these obvious combatants conveniently massed for us?
You'd think this is good news, but honestly I don't think she'd let mere unpopularity stop her. Via Instapundit.
The Russians claim they don't plan to invade Ukraine notwithstanding their massed troops. But keep in mind that Russia always magically stops an enemy attack in hours and kicks in the large counter-offensive soon after. Russia lies even above what you expect from any government.
Could we refuse to let Ukraine into NATO on the condition that Russia permanently pull its troops back and end all hostile actions toward Ukraine? No. Rather than justifying NATO membership because Russia can't keep that promise, Western countries would refuse to admit--over Russian denials--that Russia violated their promises.
Speaking of ADIZ, China sent 39 planes: "Taiwan on Sunday reported the largest incursion since October by China's air force in its air defence zone[.]" To my surprise, the article distinguishes between air space and ADIZ. The Chinese basically interdicted Taiwan's Pratas Island.
From the "Well that's different!" files.
I must say that to this day I resent that Apple put that U2 album on my iPhone that I can't delete.
Twitter hashtag campaigns mean little unless Russia invades Ukraine and we get #BodyBagsFlowingHomeToRussia. When you twitter a king, kill him.
Nonsense. Drone strikes are nothing new in the issue of air power targeting, except that with more loiter time the decisions are probably better. Remember, lawful strikes do not require zero civilian deaths. It's really a pretty stupid op-ed.
