Sunday, April 05, 2015

Wait a Second ...

Iran denies they have a nuclear weapons program and insists that their nuclear research is all about cheap and clean nuclear energy.

So how is this a threat?

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister and chief nuclear negotiator, said on a talk show on state-run TV that Iran has the power to take "corresponding action" and "will be able to return" its nuclear program to the same level if the other side fails to honor the agreement.

"All parties to the agreement can stop their actions (fulfillment of their commitments) in case of violation of the agreement by the other party," Zarif said.

The only way this works as a threat or a consequence of our failing to honor the terms of a future deal is if Iran is seeking nuclear weapons. Or do you fear the "corresponding action" of Iranians having electricity?

We've just concluded a framework for a nuclear weapons deal with a country that denies that the deal is about preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons.

When they've lied about the very premise of the deal, why would we expect Iran's mullah rulers to abide by the terms of the deal?

Remember, the proposed deal only says we will establish a mechanism for us to ask Iran about past questions concerning programs related to nuclear weapons.

Which means we will spend a year establishing organizations and contact persons and exchanging phone numbers and emails. And then we will ask Iran about their nuclear electricity-related ICBM warhead program. At that point Iran will respond, "What ICBM warhead program?"

And that will be the end of the mechanism for us to ask Iran about past questions concerning programs related to nuclear weapons.

Or why would we expect Iran not to go around the narrow terms of the deal to reach their denied objective in other ways and in other places?

What kind of "reset" with Iran will this deal lead to that isn't a disaster for us and our allies?

And if the deal will nullify UN Security Council resolutions that provide for sanctions, as the Iranians say, how will we reimpose them when Putin stands in the way with Russia's Security Council veto?

On the bright side, Kerry has the potential of going from the least effective American Secretary of State to the most effective Iranian foreign minister ever!