The description of Putin's subliminal war is worth it alone, but this is interesting:
The covert stage of Putin's campaign against Ukraine will not give him the command and control that he needs to carry out a rigged referendum or block Ukraine's presidential election. Moreover, there are no guarantees that the covert operation will not lose steam as Ukraine fights back in the propaganda war, as the brutality of the Russian operation becomes evident, and the credibility of Russia's more bizarre propaganda claims are unmasked.
The world is watching now. Earlier it was not. That pro-Russian authorities are jailing reporters at the epicenter of their operations and even going so far as to kidnap international observers shows their fear of exposure of their Potemkin villages of self-defense forces and locals fearful of Kiev Nazis. These kidnappings are extreme steps by panicked Putin minions.
Putin must decide what to do. To continue as is will cause trouble but not yield him his objectives. An armed invasion would yield him his objectives but at considerable cost.
My impression at the time was that Putin's efforts were failing to give him enough cover to pretend that he is rescuing anybody in that region.
Indeed, I speculated that an overt invasion could be the only way to get that territory, but that it would severely strain Putin's military capabilities to hold the people within Russia.
And events yesterday represent a major defeat for the subliminal invasion of eastern Ukraine that Putin has been attempting to pull off.
We need to work hard with Ukraine to make sure the Ukrainian election at the end of this month goes off smoothly and openly. When goose-stepping Nazis aren't marching in a victory parade through Kiev celebrating their win, the Russians will look like the liars they have been throughout this crisis.
At that point, the Russians will have to move their troops massed on Ukraine's borders--either to go back to their usual bases or to invade Ukraine and dispense with the pretense that Russia is trying to help anybody but Russia.
UPDATE: Elections in the east will be difficult (the mock elections of the separatists went on without a hitch because they were not real elections):
Ukraine's election body issued a stark warning Saturday that it may be impossible to hold next week's presidential election in the east, where a pro-Moscow insurgency is threatening to plunge the country into all-out civil war.
Russia also questioned how an election taking place under the "thunder of guns" could possibly meet democratic norms and demanded that Kiev halt its offensive against the rebels.
One, Russian elections don't really take place even without the thunder of guns to mess them up.
Two, the "thunder of guns" stems from the threat of Russia's Kharkov Storm looming over Ukraine.
And three, just where is the Carter Center when it comes to helping a democracy hold an election in trying times? Not in Ukraine, if their site is accurate.
I know they usually like to validate thug dictatorship elections. But couldn't they spare a moment for eastern Ukraine?
