Wednesday, June 19, 2013

From the Shores of Jordan to the Halls of Boy Assad?

While the conventional wisdom could certainly be wrong, the story is that Eager Lion exercises in Jordan are aimed at a possible Syria intervention. So what's with the naval component?

A picture of America-led multi-national military exercises in Jordan includes the following in the photo caption:

Under the watchful eye of stern-faced American advisers, hundreds of U.S.-trained Jordanian soldiers are holding war games that could eventually form the basis of an assault in Syria.

The fact that Jordan requested American F-16s and Patriot air defense missiles to remain after the exercises are over reinforce that view, as does the separate American headquarters element capable of commanding 20,000 troops that is in Jordan.

Oddly, the photo of the exercises was of naval forces at Aqaba. Pray tell, are we expecting the Jordanian navy--all 500 men--to sail around the Sinai Peninsula, through the Suez Canal, and up to Jordan to enforce a blockade of Assad's forces? Or will Syria's navy motor down to Aqaba to sow mines?

I'm just saying that if I was in charge, I'd use the maneuvers to quietly put a brigade's worth of Marine equipment from ship-based prepositioned equipment into Jordan just in case we need the lead element of a ground element for an emergency.

UPDATE: Let the RUMORINT fly!

Saudi Arabia is buzzing with speculation that international military intervention in Syria could be at hand after King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud cut short his summer holiday in Morocco and returned to Saudi Arabia over the weekend and Washington announced that it would start arming Syria’s rebels. ...

Last week, U.S. officials confirmed suspicions that F-16 fighter jets and a Patriot missile defense system that were brought to Jordan for military exercises would now stay on in the Hashemite kingdom. That fanned speculation that Jordan may be preparing to declare a new safe haven inside southern Syria from which internationally supported Syrian rebel units could attack Damascus and Syrian refugees could live in relative peace until fighting has ended.

Jordanian officials as far back as seven months ago have drawn up such contingency plans, which officials in Amman hope would help alleviate their growing Syrian refugee crisis and keep the tiny Middle Eastern kingdom free from fighting.

The Southern Front may be ready.