Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Next Stop: Gao?

Despite the impression I got reading the news that the French are determined to avoid upsetting the planned autumn offensive north, are the French revising the plan now that they are in Mali? It sure looks like Gao is a target for a ground advance.

There is much happening in Mali.


American aircraft are providing airlift to support the French-led effort (apparently to airlift a French mechanized infantry battalion, I'll guess), which will now exceed 3,000 in Mali; ECOWAS forces are now expected to fight rather than support the now-obviously ill-prepared Mali army as it fight; ECOWAS is now committed to sending more than 5,000 troops; French and Mali forces advanced toward Gao to take Douentza, on the road to Gao; Chadian troops are deployed in Niger near the main road from Niger's capital, Niamey, to Gao, prepared to advance with Nigerien troops on that al Qaeda-held city; and the jihadis seem to have abandoned Gao under pressure from French air raids (I can no longer find the article that refers to this--perhaps I'm mistaken and simply read a reference to a French bombing mission a week-and-a-half ago).

That sure sounds like the French want to pounce on Gao while the jihadis are perhaps a little shaky after their reverses in central Mali.

And Timbukto--which France bombed to hit jihadi targets--is a target for liberation, too, if the Mali government gets its way.

UPDATE: Mali forces are advancing toward Gao:

Government forces advanced into northern Mali on Friday and reached the town of Hombori, some 160 km (100 miles) south of the Islamist rebel stronghold of Gao, after French air strikes drove back the militants, military sources said.

They seem to be on their own. And it is happening well before the logistics build up can be accomplished. I certainly hope the Mali troops are made of sterner stuff than the guys who panicked at the sight of jihadis, which caused the early French intervention in the first place.

But what the heck. It is a good idea to exploit potential confusion in the jihadi ranks after jihadi setbacks. And it isn't like the jihadis could exploit a complete Mali failure, since there are too many African and French troops in the southern part of the company.