Considering the last time four brigades went into Gaza, meaning anywhere from 4,000 to 20,000 troops were used (depending on whether you count battalions going in or the entire brigades, I suppose), isn't mobilizing 75,000 troops a bit much?
Israeli aircraft bombed Hamas government buildings in Gaza on Saturday, including the prime minister's office, after Israel's cabinet authorized the mobilization of up to 75,000 reservists, preparing for a possible ground invasion.
Syria isn't about to intervene. Egypt, despite rhetoric, couldn't intervene openly.
Is Israel just being cautious to guard against foreign intervention?
Are the Israelis planning a war instead of a punitive expedition this time?
Good grief, could a Gaza War be the fog they'd use to strike Iran?
Is that why Iran just announced a delay in opening their Arak reactor? To lessen the idea that Iran needs to be hit now?
I have no idea why 75,000 are being mobilized. Or if 75,000 are being mobilized. After all, the 75,000 number is just how many are authorized to be mobilized. And that number keeps going up every day, it seems.
UPDATE: Of course, this could also be to deter Hezbollah from joining the fight. Or Israel may plan to take on Hezbollah, too, which would require lots of troops for a deep and thorough operation.
Also, Turkey is too busy with Syria to do more than complain.
But I keep thinking Israel will want this over fast to avoid complications.
UPDATE: Thanks to Mad Minerva for the link.
Also, Stratfor writes (in an email update with no link) that the large reservist numbers point to holding Hezbollah at bay. Iran would like Hezbollah to strike, but Hezbollah isn't eager to join the fight. Hezbollah has a bigger problem right now--whether their patron and life line to Iran, Syria's Assad, can survive. If Assad cannot survive, Hezbollah has a problem just holding their position in Lebanon.
But Hezbollah might jump in if Israel gets bogged down in Gaza. The pressure to "do something" while Hamas bleeds would be there. Plus, they could believe they'd win. Stratfor says that even if Hezbollah intervenes, they would want to be seen as getting a quick ceasefire to save Hamas rather than actually risk a longer war with Israel.
Certainly, while I think Israel screwed the pooch in the 2006 war with Hezbollah, the Israelis did inflict pain on Hezbollah that they don't seem to be eager to repeat. We bought Israel about a month of time and they wasted it.
And I think Israel learned their lesson and would do it right the next time. Gaza in 2006 points to learning those lessons.
To his credit, President Obama is giving Israel time, too:
Obama says "no country on earth would tolerate missiles raining down" on its people and says any effort to resolve the conflict in Gaza "starts with no missiles being fired into Israel's territory."
But how much time does Israel have?
In 2006, Sunni Arab states were willing to let Israel have time to smash up Iran-allied Hezbollah. The Arab Spring has shaken that willingness--especially in Egypt.
In 2006, President Bush was likely more willing to give time than President Obama now.
On the other hand, in 2006 even I wanted Israel to wrap things up to avoid complicating our Iraq fight--which was in the midst of pre-surge but post-Samarra mosque bombing sectarian slaughter by Sunni Arab al Qaeda and Iran-supplied Shia Sadrists.
Also, how eager would Turkey be to oppose Israel over Hezbollah while it has to worry about Syria and wonder if it might need Israel's unacknowledged help in Syria?
Syria is a wild card. In 2006, the threat of Syrian intervention was at least credible. Now? It would be less effective since Syrian conventional forces are crippled. But would Israel fire chemical weapons at Israel in a desperate bid to rally Sunnis to his side inside Syria and abroad? Would he fire at Israeli troops inside Lebanon if the Israelis invade to try to avoid Israeli retaliation by firing on Israeli civilian targets? Assad might be signing his death warrant, but he might not see any alternative to a big gamble.
I don't think Israel has as much time as they got in 2006. Time is ticking and yet I really don't know what the war is yet. Is it just Gaza? And if so, how extensive is the objective? Longer range rockets in Hamas hands changes the debate beyond the Iron Dome defenses that Israel hoped would define the front line. Is Lebanon the real front? Iran?
Who will get pulled in if it goes on long enough? Will even the West Bank feel the urge to act in Palestinian solidarity even as their rival Hamas is thrashed?
So far, 31,000 of 75,000 reservists authorized to be mobilized have been called up by Israel.
UPDATE: Apparently, we understand Israel defending themselves, but just not with ground troops:
"Israel has every right to expect that it does not have missiles fired into its territory," Obama said at the start of a three-nation tour in Asia.
"If that can be accomplished without a ramping up of military activity in Gaza, that's preferable," he said. "It's not just preferable for the people of Gaza. It's also preferable for Israelis, because if Israeli troops are in Gaza, they're much more at risk of incurring fatalities or being wounded."
Clearly, our president prefers just air raiding villages.
Ah, strategery.
