Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Even When They Are Smart

This is good news about our foreign policy, after too many years of hoping that we could do enough to "flip" Assad (I too long hoped to flip Syria--but on our turns and not by begging):

In coordination with Turkey, the United States has been exploring how to deal with the possibility of a civil war among Syria’s Alawite, Druse, Christian and Sunni sects, a conflict that could quickly ignite other tensions in an already volatile region.

While other countries have withdrawn their ambassadors from Damascus, Obama administration officials say they are leaving in place the American ambassador, Robert S. Ford, despite the risks, so he can maintain contact with opposition leaders and the leaders of the country’s myriad sects and religious groups.

Officials at the State Department have also been pressing Syria’s opposition leaders to unite as they work to bring down the Assad government, and to build a new government.

This is good. No doubt. But I guess it is too much to ask them to learn lessons from fights before President Obama graced Washington with his presence:

That awareness is fueling the desire to plan for a post-Assad era, Obama administration officials say. “Nobody wants another Iraq,” one administration official said on Saturday, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Sigh. It wasn't just sectarian differences that drove sectarian clashes in Iraq. Those differences still exist in Iraq yet the violence is down. No, the violence in Iraq after we drove Saddam from power was fueled by Syria which funneled jihadis from the Sunni Arab world into Iraq to kill and by Iran which supported Shia death squads killing Sunni Arabs and American troops. Even all the money and weapons that the Baathists had would have been insufficient to resist for long without that external help.

Maybe the Obama administration should be working harder to keep Iran from interfering in Syria if we can push Assad out. After all, if Iran can't have Syria, they might very well prefer chaos in Syria.

UPDATE: Austin Bay has more and the developing struggle between NATO and Iran over the fate of Assad. Strategypage also looks at the escalating battle and how protests are becoming armed resistance. Most interesting is that Iraq has now come down against Assad. I missed that in the news even though the news mentioned it when Iraq came out in support of Assad. Perhaps we gave them enough reassurances that we'd support Iraq in the face of Iranian hostility to overcome their fear of Iran.