Libyan government forces on Tuesday unleashed a withering bombardment of rebel forces trying to take back a key oil town, pushing them back even as the regime said Moammar Gadhafi might consider some reforms but wouldn't be stepping down.
The rebels managed to take part of oil town of Brega the day before, aided by an international air campaign that has pounded Gadhafi's heavy weapons, but the rocket and tank bombardment unleashed on the rebels indicates the government's offensive capabilities remain intact.
"When you see this, the situation is very bad. We cannot match their weapons," said Kamal Mughrabi, 64, a retired soldier who joined the rebel army. "If the planes don't come back and hit them we'll have to keep pulling back."
The rebels have been holding their own in the ongoing battle for Brega (Buraqyqah), with the small force of regulars who defected early in the revolt to the rebels committed to the battle, and with coalition air power having made loyalist movement along the coast road difficult, resulting in fewer loyalist forces and ammunition available at the front.
But if the non-American coalition air power can't make up for our now-departed aircraft, the loyalists will move up more troops, ammunition, and equipment to the front. (And while it is nice that we think we've reduced Khaddafi's power by 30% with our air strikes, if Khaddafi still has enough to win--or even to survive--that is irrelevant.) The rebels won't be able to counter this, and in fact as their few regulars take casualties, the rebels will get weaker. So the current trend in the correlation of forces at Brega will swing to the loyalists, who will win this battle.
Then it will be back to focusing on the city of Ajdabiya, which is vital for the rebels to hold if they hope to win or just survive.
Or it is possible that the loyalists have decided to prepare for a long war and only want to capture Brega to make sure that a ceasefire leaves them in control of this vital oil export region. The loyalists may have no intention of trying to capture Ajdabiya and try to push beyond that, as long as coalition air power could pounce. If so, expect to see Misrata become the focus of the war as Khaddafi's forces continue to try to capture land that they think must remain part of rump Libya after a ceasefire.
