Friday, August 20, 2010

The Devil They Don't Know

There is some unrest in Bahrain as the government cracks down on Shia opponents of the government:

Political tensions have risen in recent days in the Persian Gulf state of Bahrain, where Shiite Muslim clerics and a prominent activist have been arrested as the island kingdom gears up for parliamentary elections in October.

Activists, mostly Shiites protesting government policies and the recent arrests, blocked roads near the capital Wednesday night, and set fires to trash cans.

Why should we be interested?

Bahrain hosts the United States Navy's 5th Fleet, which patrols the Persian Gulf. The majority of the population is Shiite but the oil-rich country is ruled by a Sunni dynasty. Shiites, some of them close to Iran, have repeatedly complained about discrimination in the job market and say the Sunni-dominated government, which has strong ties to Saudi Arabia, is trying to dilute their influence.

Bahrain is a problem. While it is not ideal to support a minority Sunni government against a Shia majority, that majority gains support from Iran. Worse, Iran would love to annex the whole place.

If that sounds very similar to Iraq under Saddam and their Shia south, it is. Which is why it is a delicate problem.

But of coruse there is a major difference, too. Bahrain's government is friendly and not a supporter of terrorism or expansionist or intent on getting weapons of mass destruction. And we have a major naval base there.

The article doesn't mention Iran's hand in any ot this. And given that the Shia's would naturally be unhappy with their lot in life even if Iran cared nothing about the place, I don't want to assume anything.

But I'd be shocked if Iran was not stirring up the locals and providing help in the hope of exploiting any unrest. Bahrain's Shia's may not like being under the control of a minority Sunni government, but I sincerely doubt that they'd enjoy being part of an Iranian client state.