What is most worrying about a possible North Korean collapse is that the key players in the region are not talking to each other, even informally, about such an eventuality. It’s almost certain that these powers—China, the United States, Japan, South Korea and, possibly, Russia—have all drawn up their own contingency plans for Pyongyang’s quick collapse. However, they’ve done nothing to explore a collective response to what is without doubt a geopolitical game-changer.
As a result, many crucial questions remain unanswered. For instance, how should the United States and South Korea react if China sends combat troops into North Korea to conduct ‘humanitarian assistance’ missions? In all likelihood, Beijing will be tempted to do so if millions of refugees start fleeing into China. Which country will take the lead in securing nuclear materials? How will China respond to the crossing of the 38th parallel by South Korean and US forces? Who will take the lead in reaching out to Pyongyang’s post-Kim regime? What will be the collective security architecture after the Korean peninsula is reunified?
I think the United States, South Korea, China, and possibly Russia, should split apart North Korea in the event of a collapse, to keep China from moving up to the DMZ and prevent South Korean and American forces from moving to the Yalu River.
South Korea does seem to be getting ready for the worst case:
For the last decade, the South Korean military has been preparing to deal with collapse in the north. Last year, the government made public what many have suspected for several years now. If North Korea attacks, South Korea is prepared to go north. This is no surprise to those who have been observing the South Korean armed forces development after the end of the Cold War in 1991. During the same time, the North Korean armed forces have declined because of a bankrupt economy and no money for replacing obsolete equipment, or for training. Meanwhile, the booming economy in the south led to the growth of domestic arms industry, and the re-equipping the South Korean military with modern, and locally made, weapons.
And if South Korean forces move north and Chinese forces move south, the two do have a military hot line to coordinate where they meet.
As ugly and expensive and complicated this would be, President Obama would be very lucky to have North Korea collapse before they have deliverable nuclear weapons.
