Kampfgruppe Victory

The latest buzz is whether we've won in Iraq (see here for example). Yes, terrorists are still there and militias could become a greater a problem if we let up, but corruption and rule of law are fast becoming bigger issues than these declining internal armed threats. The former can be fought by Iraqi forces with decreasing direct US action over time. The latter will need our help for years to come. And we need to base 4-5 combat brigades and aircraft for external defense for a decade, I should think, unless Iran and Syria become friendly countries before then.

Ever fearful of the many ways our Congress could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, I'm hesitant to say more than that we are clearly winning. Sure, the anti-war side that just wants to end the war isn't happy that President Bush chose a course to end the war by winning it, but it is ending. It would look bad for the anti-war side to complain too loudly about that inconvenient aspect. And there seems like less and less chance that we could blow the battlefield victory with stupid actions in Washington.

Nor do I see any other armed threat waiting to take the place of al Qaeda or the Mahdi Army. Absent direct Syrian or Iranian intervention with conventional forces, only open revolt by existing Iraqi forces (army, police, or Kurdish regional forces) could pose an armed threat to the Iraqi government.

I guarantee that President Bush won't declare victory given the unfair hammering he took in 2003.

But there is a way to declare victory in Iraq without the words. We should convince the Iraqis to send an infantry battalion to Afghanistan. We want to send more US troops but we can't shake loose more than a single complete brigade until next year probably, so if we want to send something to Afghanistan in 2008 that isn't taken from Iraq, it will have to be odds and sods.

So why not send a provisional brigade to Afghanistan composed of one Iraqi infantry battalion and one American infantry battalion plus American support formations to round out the unit? It could be for a seven month tour to bridge the gap until we can flow American brigades. We wouldn't ask Iraq for more than one tour. And maybe it would shame some of our NATO allies into letting their soldiers fight in Afghanistan.

Imagine the signal that would send about Iraq's place in the world. From an enemy to ally in the Long War in less than six years. That would sure look like victory, eh?