Monday, May 19, 2008

The Thin Green Ratline

Our surge against the jihadis entrenched in Baghdad and the belts around the city were tremendously assisted by the cutting of the ratlines back to Syria that traversed Anbar province. Once the Awakening flipped the Anbar tribes, the jihadis in Baghdad and the surrounding region were on their own to face our offensive.

The jihadis in Mosul are greatly weakened and under tremendous pressure from Iraqi forces with our troops in support:

Mosul, 225 miles northwest of Baghdad, has been the most prominent al-Qaida in Iraq urban stronghold since the group lost control of cities in the western province of Anbar over the past year. Al-Qaida militants and other Sunni Arab insurgents have used the city to carry out major attacks in northern and central Iraq in recent months.

U.S.-backed Iraqi forces have been carrying out targeted raids on suspected militants in the city — and so far the sweep has seen almost no clashes, a sign insurgents are seeking to lay low or escape. The Defense Ministry reported the first death in the crackdown, saying raids Monday left one militant dead, along with 78 people arrested. The ministry statement gave no details on how the death occurred.


The enemy is weak enough to be in self-preservation mode rather than fighting.

Mosul is not cut off completely, however, making it more difficult to roll them up more quickly:

On Sunday, U.S-Iraqi forces increased a parallel operation in regions between Mosul and the Syrian border aimed at intercepting fleeing al-Qaida figures, an official in the Iraqi security forces' Ninevah command center said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the press.


While the article speaks of some jihadis running west to escape Mosul, support from the west is undoubtedly flowing to Mosul. Al Qaeda in Iraq is going down, but Syria will extend the agony of Iraqis as long as the jihadis are willing to kill Iraqis. Fortunately, fewer and fewer jihadis are willing to fight and the ones who are willing face a shorter life span as our side chases them down.