The various cleric controlled bureaucracies keep themselves out of trouble with each other by following a "live-and-let-live" policy. So one faction can support terrorist attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, while another insists that the government is doing no such thing. There are some general rules followed by all the factions. These are based on Iranian tradition and custom. First, don't do anything that will cause great and obvious harm to the country. Namely, keep us out of war. The losses of the 1980s war with Iraq are still vivid in everyone's mind. It is believed that the main leadership factions have agreed to keep nuclear weapons and materials out of the hands of terrorists. But the Iranians won't discuss this openly, as their official policy is that they have no nuclear weapons program.
So I'm supposed to be comforted that the main factions agree that the real fanatics (Hah! That's quite a distinction over there.) shouldn't be allowed to play with nuclear weapons?
What if the main factions change their mind? What if a minor faction wanting to be a major faction decides to make their play based on getting a nuke to the real nuts? What if the real nuts just take a nuke? What if the real nuts become a major faction?
Heck, what if the real nuts who want to nuke Israel manage to get non-nuclear weapons like nerve gas and manage to kill hundreds of Israelis? Might not the threat of an Israeli nuclear retaliation get the major factions to use those nukes before Israel can respond? Or wouldn't the main factions then respond to an Israeli nuclear strike with an Iranian nuclear strike?
Really, why couldn't the real nuts engineer a nuclear attack on Israel through means like this:
Vice Adm. Kevin Cosgriff, the commander of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, which is based in the Gulf, said five Iranian fast boats moved aggressively toward the U.S. ships in international waters and their actions were "unduly provocative.""The ships received a radio call that was threatening in nature, to the effect that they were closing on our ships and ... the U.S. ships would explode," Cosgriff told reporters at the Pentagon via videolink from his Bahrain headquarters. ...
Pentagon officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said after the Iranian threats a U.S. captain was in the process of ordering sailors to open fire when the Iranian boats moved away.
The Iranians reportedly radioed the US ships that "I am coming at you. You will explode in a couple of minutes." They also dropped boxes in the water, obviously pretending to put mines in the water.
We were nearly ready to open fire when the Iranians backed off. It wouldn't matter if these jokers from the Pasdaran were just one faction of many and didn't control Iran, we could have been at war with all of Iran. Although if the other factions are horrified at that thought, a response tailored to blowing away Pasdaran naval elements without targeting Iranian assets deep inside Iran might be a way to deal the Pasdaran faction a blow without triggering a general war.
Next time the Iranians might open fire. Or we might blow one away before it gets too close as a warning not to play those games. But at least the stakes might allow for a cooling off because nukes aren't in play--yet. What if an Iranian faction uses similar tactics to trigger a nuclear war?
This decade truly sucks.
Oh wait, what am I thinking? Iran has no nuclear program!
I have moderate confidence this decade no longer sucks. Nighty night.
