On how the military effort is going, that's a massive 37-point swing from February.
On whether we are defeating "the insurgents" there is a 25-point swing.
The number of Americans who want to bring our troops home is stable. The details say this is being in favor of bringing troops home now rather than waiting until Iraq is stable. Perhaps some people think things have improved enough to come home. Or maybe people aren't focused on the part about stability first. Heck, I want our troops home. This could also be a simple desire to avoid the world. I wonder how many of those polled would say bring our troops home from Germany, Japan, or South Korea. There was a lot of public support to bring our troops home from Europe in the 1970s, too. The Mansfield Amendment in 1971 drew 36 votes in support in the Senate and surely defied public opinion at the time.
And the number of people who think we will win is stable.
My guess is that the opinions on how the war is going and whether we are beating the enemy are leading indicators. The numbers on whether we win will be tugged up as news of winning continues to be digested and internalized.
Given a general aversion to foreign adventure, I imagine the polling on bringing our troops home will not budge much--but it will be an opinion held without much fervor should our casualties drop off to big city murder-rate levels.
The polling also means that we are less likely to lose the patience needed to solidify our battlefield win, defend what we've won so far, and press on with the nonmilitary means we need to exploit the battlefield victory and truly win the war.
UPDATE: Another poll shows this change as well:
Confidence in the War on Terror increased for the fourth straight month in November and is now near the highest level of President Bush’s second term in office.
The latest Rasmussen Reports tracking poll finds that 47% of Americans now say the U.S. and its allies are winning the War on Terror (see crosstabs). That’s up from 43% a month ago and reflects is the highest level of confidence measured since December 2005. Over the past 35 months, confidence in the War on Terror has been higher than today only twice, in November and December 2005.
The 47% who believe the U.S. and its allies are winning is up significantly from earlier in the year. During the first nine months of 2007, the number believing that the U.S. fell as low as 33% and reached the 40% level just once. During calendar year 2006, an average of 40% believed the U.S. and its allies were winning. That average was 45% in 2005.
In what may be just as significant a finding, only 24% of voters now believe the terrorists are winning. That’s down from 30% a month ago and represents the lowest level of pessimism recorded since 2004.
Polls do not prove we are winning. I've not consulted polls to determine my views. But the polling does mean we should gain the time to cement the victory we are building.
UPDATE: Victor Hanson addresses the heart of the issue and why opinion polls are moving. Americans have not been anti-war but anti-defeat:
The people were mad at the war not because they felt it was amoral or unsound policy, or because they hated George Bush, or because they wished liberals instead to end it in defeat — but simply because they felt frustrated that we either were not winning, or not winning at a cost in blood and treasure that was worth the effort.
That Pattonesque national mood (“America loves a winner, and will not tolerate a loser”) is not quite entirely gone, and was entirely misunderstood by most Democrats. Somehow instead they saw their new popularity as connected to the appeal of their politics rather than their shared anger at the mismanagement of the war.
Mistaking discontent with not visibly winning, the new powers in Congress too easily assumed that the public shared their desire to get out at the price of losing the war.
