Out of the Frying Pan

Given that Iranian-supported Shia thugs seem to be taking the baton from the Sunni jihadis (who took the baton from the Sunni Arab nationalists, who had taken the baton from the Baathist insurgents, who of course took the baton from Saddam's regime when we toppled his statue in Baghdad), we may need to redeploy our forces in Iraq in a major way.

With Anbar quieting down and the British looking for the exits in the Shia south (and already pretty thin as it is), we should probably look to moving a Marine regimental combat team from eastern Anbar to Basra.

We don't want to undermine Anbar by drawing down too soon, nor do we want to abandon the trust built up there by the Marine-led effort. But if we can get Iraqis to step up in Anbar and other areas where the surge is being conducted, we will need to reshuffle the deck a bit. We might need to expand the Army's area of operaions to Fallujah and Ramadi (where Army units support the Marines), leaving the far west to another Marine regimental combat team.

Unless anybody thinks we can find two or three more new brigades for the south or that we don't need to replace the British when they leave.

We have time before we must move units around, but I think we will need to replace the British in light of the new threat developing.

UPDATE: General Petraeus is expected to recommend a partial pullback from pacified areas (tip to Stand-To!):

The expected recommendation would authorize U.S. commanders to withdraw troops from places that have become less violent and turn over security responsibilities to Iraqi forces.

But it does not necessarily follow that Petraeus would call for reducing the overall number of troops in the country. Instead, he could move them to another hot spot, or use them to create a reserve force to counter any rise in violence.

Anbar is mentioned as one location for such a reduction. But the problem of risking progress by pulling out too soon is mentioned as well:

Not all military commanders favor reducing the number of troops in more stable areas. In a news conference last month, Marine Maj. Gen. Walter E. Gaskin, the commander of U.S. forces in Al Anbar, cautioned against cutting back forces there too quickly.

It is a tough call. We have limited resources. Eventually, Iraqis have to take over. But when can we safely make that transition?