Bush has backed European efforts, but documents circulated among IAEA board members last week indicated Washington would try to pressure Tehran further by the next agency board meeting in June of the European talks fail.I had assumed an effort to overthrow the mullahs would take place this spring--like next month. Based on uncertainties over when Tehran goes nuclear and when our Strategic Petroleum Reserve would be filled, April seemed about right.
But since then I've read that Iran is probably a couple years away. I'm not very comfortable with hard estimates like this but we must not think the point-of-no-return is coming fast. The June IAEA meeting takes us past April.
And the European effort is futile:
Any effort by Washington to bring Tehran's suspended uranium enrichment program under Security Council scrutiny is a dangerous path, warned Hasan Rowhani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator.
Iran will not agree to anything solid. The only question is whether the Europeans will accept reality or continue their dreamland negotiations no matter how loudly the Iranians tell them to bugger off about nukes.
And Iran isn't shy about threatening oil supplies:
Rowhani said referring Iran to the Security Council would only make things worse.
"Americans and Europeans will be the first to lose in that case," he told more than 50 nuclear scientists and experts attending the Tehran conference. "It will cause problems for regional energy and for the European economy. And it will cause additional problems for America."
So, nothing can happen until June in any case. And the middle of the summer is not a good time to contemplate ground action in Iran. September is when the ground dried out enough for the Iraqis to invade in 1980. Not that we'd try to conquer Iran, but a revolt that needs US support to overthrow the mullahs might need US forces. By the fall, US forces could be in Iraq in the same numbers as now but with fewer duties as Iraqis carry more of the burden of fighting an insurgency that appears to be losing steam.
Given the Iranian threat, we'd need a robust SPR to ride out a storm:
Today, the SPR has the capacity to hold 727 million barrels. It is the largest emergency oil stockpile in the world. Together, the facilities and crude oil represent a more than $21 billion investment in energy security ($4 billion for facilities and $17 billion for crude oil).
So what about that April 1 filling of the SPR that I'd once read about? Apparently that is not happening. What is the status? Well, we have 682 million barrels stored, with the President having ordered the reserve to have 700 million barrels. The status page shows additions through August planned of about 32 million barrels, making for 714 million barrels by the fall, if I'm reading the charts correctly. Perhaps it is only 19 million barrels, leaving us at 699 million barrels by the fall.
Inventory and drawdown facts:
Inventory
Current inventory: Click to open inventory update window
Highest inventory - The SPR is now at its highest level and continues to grow as additional crude oil is received.
Current storage capacity - 727 million barrels
Current days of import protection in SPR - 53 days (Maximum days of import protection in SPR - 118 days in 1985)
International Energy Agency requirement - 90 days of import protection (both public and private stocks)(SPR and private company import protection - approx. 150 days)
Average price paid for oil in the Reserve - $27.14 per barrel (prior to Royalty in Kind program)
Drawdown Capability
Maximum drawdown capability - 4.3 million barrels per day
Time for oil to enter U.S. market - 13 days from Presidential decision
I still cannot imagine that we have not been preparing to deal with Iran. I cannot imagine that our President has decided to live with the mullahs owning nuclear weapons. Even if they did not want to use such weapons, having them as a deterrent for the mullahs to intensify terror confident we would not press a nuclear-armed Iran is bad enough.
But action may be on hold until the fall in a perhaps vain attempt to get the Euros on board.
Stranger things have happened, I guess.
UPDATE: Oh, fifteen minutes later I realized I forgot two other points.
One: a fall timeline fits in the President's push for Social Security changes. I'd wondered how this could fit in with a spring Iran move and a fall Iran move fits in with the apparent schedule for action (whether Congress approves or not, the schedule seems to be a Social Security move by fall).
Two: the fall gets us past the summer driving and air conditioning season and is well ahead of the winter heating season. I imagine the SPR and privately held reserves would last longer in the fall.
