THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.
The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.
In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."
It has been our long-term goal to keep any hostile power from gaining control of the economic and scientific might of Europe. Whether we resisted the Kaiser, Hitler, or a succession of Soviet leaders, the goal has been the same--keep Europe from being used as a springboard to attack us. With the EU attempting to absorb the identities of individual nations and mold them into a Euro superstate, I fear that the EU will just evolve into a bureaucratic dictatorship that inevitably would clash with America. It might take fifty years, but it is the wrong path for us to encourage Europe to take.
So I draw comfort from the prediction of a Euro splintering. I'd rather have some friends than none and if we deal with nations, we can foster friendship. If we deal with Europe, we will face a competitor and quite possibly an enemy one day.
Of course, it would be better for American security to prevent the EU from becoming a politically united entity.
