I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: Transformation in Contact Reaches Army Armored Brigades
In case you missed it on Substack: Urban Warfare is Necessary But Dangerously Appealing
In case you missed it on Substack: The Promise and Failure of U.N. Peacekeepiing
In case you missed it on Substack: Marine Littoral Regiments Stopped at Two
From the "Well, Duh" files: "A new Russian military unit that replaced the Wagner mercenary group is carrying out abuses including rapes and beheadings as it teams up with Mali ‘s military to hunt down extremists[.]" Chaos is what Russia intends in order to drive migrants into Europe.
Paris is a city afraid: "The New Year’s Eve concert on the Champs Élysées has been cancelled for security reasons." Well, fear is better than two decades of ignoring car burnings by youths of unknown origin. Tip to Instapundit.
I hope Taiwan doesn't finish them just in time for China to capture them: "Taipei’s first domestically built attack boat held its latest sea trials last month amid news of significant delays that have postponed Taiwan’s ambitious submarine program."
Recounting the way the F**k-Up Fairy has treated Russia during the Winter War of 2022. The returning soldiers--often hardened criminals pardoned to go to war--could be a huge problem for Putin. Every f**k-up is another block building another Time of Troubles for Russia. Bravo.
Can Ukraine scale up its sea drones to actually control the Black Sea to use it freely rather than deny Russia easy use of the sea without risking unnecessary Russian losses? A lot of small drones linked could replicate the capabilities of a warship during calm seas, no?
Via Instapundit, yet some say the U.S. causes strained trans-Atlantic relations: "The EU has virtually declared war on free speech and is targeting American companies. That war just began with the first DSA fine. Not surprisingly, X was the chosen target[.]" Of course the EU did that. The EU is an enemy.
Force restructuring: U.S. Army North, U.S. Army South, and Army Forces Command are now combined in Fort Bragg as Western Hemisphere Command, with XVIII Corps. I Corps is under U.S. Army Pacific and III Corps is under U.S. Army Europe-Africa. V Corps already has forward elements in Poland.
Yeah, since summer 2003 I've waited for a major movie about the battles and Larry, Curley, and Moe during an opposed Thunder Run into and out of Baghdad. But nothing. Why?
I've long supported AFRICOM's role for fighting jihadis in Africa. Fighting jihadis in the Sahel is complicated by Russian activities that exploit that unrest to drive migrants into Europe.
Artillery is still vital but it can't stand still for long. Reasonable. Yet if Russian counter-battery fire is so fast, how have any of Ukraine's towed artillery survived?
The Navy will get its LSM to move Marine anti-ship teams around the western Pacific. Still looks like a barge with pretensions.
Hmmm: "After two years of combat operations in Gaza, a senior Israeli official recounted the technological leaps in ground combat and called the conflict nothing less than the 'first robotics war.'"
Because Hamas won't quit: "The 'yellow line' that divides Gaza under Donald Trump’s ceasefire plan is a 'new border' for Israel, the country’s military chief told soldiers deployed in the territory." A Plan B makes sense with Hamas still committed to murdering Israelis no matter what the cost to Gazans.
The Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire is a little explodey lately.
The Australian army is absorbing heavy armor. Should light forces land on Australia, heavy forces will be useful to drive the invaders into the sea.
Is technology undermining British (and allied) control of the Atlantic?
Secret aerial victory to be recognized with Medal of Honor. I thought I already read about that battle.
Provocation: "Chinese J-15 fighter jets twice locked radar targets on Japanese F-15 fighters over the weekend while Japan monitored the People’s Liberation Army Navy aircraft carrier CNS Liaoning (16)[.]" A twitchy trigger finger away from combat? Unless the pilots weren't given live missiles to avoid that risk.
The U.S. will seek new basing rights in the western Pacific.
I understood the need to use Marines to help the Navy with anti-ship missions. I didn't understand why Force Design was the solution. And if it is, why all the non-western Pacific Marines had to lose their needed ground combat capabilities.
A new frigate design--this time with feeling! Or hopefully competence and the avoidance of gold-plating to build pocket battleships.
Congress may restrict the president from removing troops from Europe. This is a far cry from the days when Congress tried to compel the president to remove troops from Europe. I advise people to breathe a bit.
Are NATO and the EU doomed? Is a new union needed? I'm not worried about NATO unraveling but I am eager for the EU to unravel. But is "a new political project: a 'federation' including the Nordic countries, Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, Ukraine—and possibly others" needed? Sounds like JEF+, no?
I reject the idea that after the Cold War the West didn't try to calm Russian fears. That list of defense reduction was off the top of my head and didn't include Bush 43 looking into Putin's soul, Obama's "reset" after Russia invaded Georgia, or Trump's efforts to calm the Russians the ef down.
What's up with China's economic data suppression?
Uh oh: "While the STC has been predominantly aligned with Yemen’s Saudi-backed and internationally recognized government in their fight against the Iran-supported [Houthi], the sweeping offensive launched last week and continuing through Monday took place throughout nominally government-held territory, including the oil-rich province of Hadramawt and neighboring Mahra."
Smart rifles: "European militaries are showing growing interest in a technology that turns standard service rifles into last-resort drone killers, an Israeli weapons maker says, as countries look for cheaper ways to counter the surge in uncrewed systems." That's huge for defense. Smart rifles will change training, too.
I think Turkish troops in Gaza is a really bad idea. Unless the Turks are stuck in the Hamas half of a divided Plan B Gaza.
I worry about declining military aid to Ukraine. But I bet the 43% reduction in aid since July from the previous six months is largely caused by Biden jamming military aid into the pipeline as he left office. Trump didn't halt that aid, I'll note.
Germany really isn't going to rearm. I've been skeptical. I'm more broadly skeptical about the Europeans.
Europeans are upset that Trump's new security document says Europe is being erased by mass immigration by those who cannot or will not be assimilated. I suspect that before it is too late, the Europeans will be as brutal as their long history indicates they can be. It will be bloody either way.
Sure, we've suffered from jihadi terror attacks since we fled Afghanistan. But I am truly shocked we haven't had something spectacular like 9/11 follow us home.
Oh FFS. WiFi availability on Truman distracted the crew, leading to mishaps? "Many Sailors spend their down time on their phones rather than studying for qualifications[.]" Other problems are cited, but seriously?
Report to Congress on Navy ship names. Honestly, I'd name them for Jane Fonda and the dude in a wig who sold Bud Light if we would just get new combat ship in sufficient quantities. Hell, name a sub Barb!
Great! But triple whatever number they calculate: "The Pentagon must develop a plan to fill munition stockpiles to levels needed for U.S. forces to fight multiple large-scale conflicts at once [under a 2026 NDAA provision.]"
Good: "The U.S. Navy has recovered an MH-60R Seahawk helicopter and an F/A-18F Super Hornet from the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz that crashed within half an hour of each other in the South China Sea on Oct. 26." Now find out why they went down. Two accidents is too darn close to "enemy action" for me.
Space Force wants missile interceptors.
Russia abused a road that criss-crosses Estonian and Russian territory. Estonia closed it. The article discusses Narva, which I wrote about in Army magazine.
The British will keep their army closer to home.
Symbolic Chinese-Russian action only, in my opinion: "Japan and South Korea scrambled jets on Tuesday in response to a joint Chinese-Russian bomber patrol over international waters near both of those nations."
Good: "Poland will hand over its remaining MiG-29 combat jets to Ukraine in exchange for new missile and drone technology[.]" Fewer than a dozen.
I'm confident America will close the rare earths gap that China has dominated. Rare earths aren't actually rare. The issue has been we pretended that refusing to process them at home was environmentally good because that was outsourced to countries that don't care about protecting the environment. See no evil ...
Russia and Ukraine vie for small drone supremacy. Is it just me or do the fiber-optic drones just seem like long-range Saggers?
More details on Ukraine's Spiderweb drone attack on Russia's bombers: "The SBU spent nearly two years planning Spiderweb and it worked." As I noted, this isn't a new method of warfare--it was a new form of special forces attack. If it can be done weekly on short notice, get back to me.
Equipping the Abrams with Switchblade suicide drones.
Abolish the Marine Corps? The Marines thought being a "second Army" would make them redundant. Then Force Design 2030 made them a third navy--the Coast Guard is the second--and people noticed. Sigh.
I have avoided reading takes on the new national security strategy. Most are too partisan. This guy, I basically trust: "To some extent, this document embraces what had been a left-wing view, and it will be attacked by some on the left as the abandonment of a moral imperative. History has a sense of humor."
Iran may evacuate Tehran due to a water shortage: "Some Iranian officials have pointed the finger at the West, accusing the US High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program of 'cloud theft' and sophisticated weather warfare." Can the mullahs survive that failure--by them and Allah? Via Instapundit.
How long could Britain fight a war? Not long. I n 2011 no European state could fight Libya without outstripping their stockpiles. That said, Putin is just beating his chest and flinging poo.
Cuba's terror network and its supply of cannon fodder for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Cuba supplied expeditionary forces to fight for the Soviets in Ethiopia and Angola during the Cold War. The more things change ... But what is Cuba getting in return?
I see the proto-imperial EU "has erected a Multitude of new Offices, and sent hither Swarms of Officers to harrass our People, and eat out their Substance."
Indonesia's president visited Moscow: "Indonesia, like much of Southeast Asia, looks to Russia as a potential hedge against rivalry between the US and China." Russia's Plan B develops.
That's one way to bypass state-level obstruction of federal law: "The Trump administration is adding another militarized zone to the southern U.S. border to support border security operations — this time in California."
As I expected, AUKUS passed the Pentagon review.
Sh*t got real: "A contingent of six U.S. Navy EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets, roughly a full squadron, is now forward-deployed at the former Naval Station Roosevelt Roads in Puerto Rico."
I've been shocked Ukraine didn't already build them: "Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that his country has begun using homegrown Sapsan (which means peregrine falcon) ballistic missiles in combat against Russia." Assuming the claim is true.
Denmark's intelligence assessment of America as a potential security concern is--and forgive the technical term--stupid.
Russia innovates with a new form of firepower to support their dreg infantry: "Desperate to overcome the Ukrainian drone advantage against Russian forces in Ukraine, Russia did something different. In mid-2024 they created [the] Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies."
Practically speaking, fighting overseas requires this approach: The American way of war: The primary advantage U.S. forces have in wartime is logistics. ... American forces did not win every battle, but the enemy always took a beating." My advice remains firm.
The legal logic behind an actual war on drug cartels.
Are triangular patrol bases as obsolete as walled fortresses?
Yap: "Despite the Federated States of Micronesia’s Compact of Free Association with Washington, Beijing has secured a deal to refurbish the airfield—just 450 miles from Guam." Well, one such outpost is just East Berlin. But nip this in the bud before it is a trend.
I'm glad they don't just try to punish successful Americans vexing them with a free-speech platform: "EU member states agreed on Thursday to create a legal basis for the use of Russian state assets for Ukraine by majority vote[.]"
We learned that with remote weapons stations in Iraq: "Ukraine's drone schools say the best pupils tend to be young people with tech and gaming experience." Interpreting a 3D world on a small 2D screen is a skill.
Friends in need: "Japan said Thursday it held a joint air exercise with the United States in a show of force, days after Chinese-Russian patrols in the region and following weeks of diplomatic feuding between Tokyo and Beijing."
Ukraine wants to be able to maintain an army of 800,000 after a ceasefire despite Russia's demand for a much lower size. This is a wordsmithing problem. I'm sure Ukraine can't afford an active army of 800,000. Most will be a reserve force, no?
Praise the factory and pass the ammunition: "South Korea’s Hanwha is set to invest in a new $1 billion plant in the United States to produce Modular Charge Systems (MCS) for 155mm howitzer ammunition[.]"
Ukraine needs train drone defenses: "Over the past four months, at least 300 Russian strikes have targeted trains and railway infrastructure[.]" In past wars trains needed troops and heavy weapons on the train to protect against partisans and insurgents. Drones are simply a new threat to be taken into account.
China has flown the long-rang Juitian mothership drone capable of launching a drone swarm. We may need the AABONE to target the mothership drone and A-Whacks to deal with the drone swarm if launched.
Local contractors likely took the money and ran: "Recently CENTCOM personnel discovered that stockpiles of equipment for emergencies were in deplorable condition. The U.S. Army is responsible for maintaining these stockpiles and investigations are in progress to find out how this mess came to be."
I'd pay good money if it was an armored cavalry regiment that this equipment was for instead: "The U.S. already has the equipment for an armored brigade in Poland, Estonia and Latvia."
Russia's evil is easy to see with its kidnapping of children. Russia is essentially compelling Ukrainians to replace Russian combat casualties in its invasion of Ukraine.
Is China carrying out subliminal expansion in the Yellow Sea? Are there any sea features that can be turned into islands, like in the South China Sea?
"Bad cop": "NATO chief Mark Rutte on Thursday warned allies to prepare for another world war, saying Europe is 'Russia’s next target.'" Rutte appears to get along with Trump. I think he's the flip side of Trump's "good cop" (contrary to bizarre claims that Trump is pro-Russia) to manage Putin.
Half the distance to the goal? "The United States has entered a new, even more intense phase in its pressure campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The target now is crude oil, Caracas’ main source of income."
Probably correct right now: "The world, in short, is bipolar. Many middle powers are influential actors within their regions, but only the United States and China exceed the great-power threshold." We passed the Era of Russian Decline. We'll see if other powerful states arise in the future, of course.
Seriously, how can the mullah regime survive this? "Iran is confronting an unprecedented water crisis. Rivers that have sustained settlements and agriculture for centuries are drying, while groundwater reserves are being extracted far beyond natural replenishment[.]" Iran is a rump empire, too. Will it fracture?
Huh: "Bulgaria’s government collapsed Thursday following a wave of youth-driven street protests over entrenched corruption and self-dealing elites widely seen as disconnected from the struggles of ordinary citizens." I hope this is progress and not something Russia can exploit.
Endurance: "While maintaining political control, the Kremlin delegates substantial authority to lower tiers of government. This delegation is an important source of Russia’s flexibility in times of war against Ukraine." It is really feudal in nature. I was skeptical of the faith in decisive sanctions.
Indeed: "The United States seized an oil tanker, Skipper, off the coast of Venezuela on December 10 that has illicitly transported Iranian oil. This seizure will likely increase Iran’s concerns that the United States and its allies may seize Iranian vessels to block Iranian oil exports." There are overlapping objectives, no?
SPOILER ALERT: Russian-crewed ships sent drone swarms over NATO bases. Tip to Instapundit. Digital camp followers, eh?
Chinese technology espionage in America: Texas edition. Tip to Instapundit.
Remain calm. All is well! Even as Europeans import workers who don't assimilate the EU foresees robotics leading to unrest by unemployed workers. Tip to Instapundit.
Somebody recognizes that Russia is no help because it just wants to be paid to increase chaos: "Ivory Coast reportedly wants the US to station spy planes in the country to help it fight jihadists who have gained territory across much of West Africa in recent months."
Ukraine attempts to get their troops uniformly better trained than the Russians. Also, when the war is over there needs to be massive rebuilding to incentivize all the Ukrainians--more than half the population--who fled abroad to return. Especially the young to make sure there is another generation to resist the Russians.
This is accurate: "The more accurate way to think about the separation between America and Europe is that Europe has moved anti-Western, rather than America becoming anti-European." I drone on about that on occasion. Especially note the difference in that quoted post between NATO and the EU.
Pumping iron: "One of South Korea's top shipbuilders is turning out new warships for the Philippines as Manila accelerates its naval modernization." The Philippines doesn't need to defeat China in a war--just be able to win a battle to defeat China's subliminal offensive in the South China Sea.
This essay claims Europe's planned "drone wall" defies reality: "An army is a SYSTEM: C4ISR, logistics, infantry, artillery, intelligence, medicine, communications—all moving together." Yes! Don't throw panties at small drones.
Some jihadis disapprove of the "tame" jihadi cooperation: "Two U.S. Army soldiers and a U.S. civilian who was serving as an interpreter were killed after shots were fired at U.S. and Syrian forces on a mission to a historic central town in Syria on Saturday[.]" The gunman's attitude may be widely shared.
Putin counted on shielding people from the cost of war: "Russian civilians can no longer ignore the Ukraine War." Will the civilians react? Will corrupt security forces remain solid if they do?
Morale problems inside the Russian ground forces. Is this a sign of a looming crisis? Or just business as usual in the Russian ground forces?
I wish I could be confident that as a last resort the Navy will design and build a new destroyer competently. Ditto for a new frigate.
You can put lipstick on the pig, but the proto-imperial European Union is still bad for America--and for Europeans.
Unless we are selling a stripped-down, much lower capability F-35, I absolutely oppose rewarding Erdogan's "soft" Islamist government before it changes course by selling it that plane.
Resuming nuclear testing is a dangerous gamble for America? I suppose. But so is not testing to make sure simulations are validating warhead designs in the real world. Isn't having inert warheads a dangerous gamble? The idea that we should take Iran's concerns seriously is astounding.
This last week I'm now getting frequent hits from Chinese language searches hitting specific posts from around the world. Indicators suggest users bouncing their locations around. Is this an effort to get around China's Golden Shield that keeps out Western information?
