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2022. So read here, too.
Remember how so many say we must abandon Europe and the Middle East to focus on Asia to confront China? Never mind. Why even try to oppose China? China is close and we're far away (ignoring that strong allies are close to China). My prophecy unfolds.
The rise of the drones. I still suspect the power of the drones in Ukraine is enabled by lack of counter-measures, artillery shell shortages, and the largely static frontline. And a discussion of "victory through airpower."
Can we count on this forever? "Xi has openly complained about corruption, poor work habits and lack of discipline. Xi ordered a purge of military personnel responsible for these problems and demanded that officials in charge of military combat and support operations make the changes, or else." Purges continue.
Interesting: "'If you go into any elite circle, pushing back against Russia is obvious, and Israel is complicated. If you go outside elite circles, it’s exactly the opposite.'" Grew up in Detroit. Live in Ann Arbor. I blend that! Stopping Russia seems obvious. And supporting Israel is equally obvious.
Not nearly as subliminal as the offensive was before: "The Philippines has expressed its 'displeasure' to China after their ships collided again in the South China Sea on Saturday, according to its top envoy."
Doctor Strangelove warned us about the vill of AI: "To put it bluntly, whereas human wargames and war itself entail the deliberate use of force to compel an enemy to our will, AI is not bound to the core of human instincts, self-preservation." I worry more when AI gains a sense of self-preservation, honestly.
Is Erdogan finally killing off rule of law after his election close call a couple (?) years ago? Our "break" needs to last longer. And for God's sake, we've removed or disabled our nukes at Incirlik, right? Right?
Not sure if this is a new attack: "Chinese forces surrounded and rammed the flagship of the Philippine Coast Guard today at Escoda Shoal in the seventh scuffle this month between Beijing and Manila in the South China Sea." We need a better strategy. I say Berlin Airlift: East.
In related news about doing something else: "Both the United States and the Philippines are agonizing over their ability to deter China as confrontations between an under-resourced Manila and an expansionist Beijing increase."
Also, in related news, the Navy sent the America "light carrier" with F-35s to support the Philippines symbolically. Remember, America is not a carrier. But it can do some things a real carrier can. Precision and stealth help a lot, too.
A replacement for the SR-71--the SR-72, with strike capability--is in production? Huh.
In my view, the Army's leaders chose the left side of the divide. And oddly enough, the left isn't joyfully joining and the right stopped wanting to: "Selling America: The Army’s fight to find recruits in a mistrustful, divided nation[.]"
Once again, Trump wants a stronger NATO.
JASSM to get real-world testing: "The U.S. is close to an agreement to give Ukraine long-range cruise missiles that could reach deep into Russia, but Kyiv would need to wait several months as the U.S. works through technical issues ahead of any shipment, U.S. officials said." I'm sure China will thank Russia.
The Army thinks that it needs to train to deploy its floating pier system in more realistic conditions. Also, prohibiting soldiers from going ashore as at Gaza hurt employment. More lessons may follow.
Well, that's good I suppose: "The United States has captured an ISIS leader who helped members of the terror group after they escaped from a detention facility in Syria, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)." Better not to have let him lead a prison break.
I'm not taking advice from peace activists who probably side with our enemies on whether cluster munitions should be legal. And their point about unexploded bomblets from our strikes interfering with our advancing troops is an issue of tactical usage rather than proof they aren't useful to win.
This writer (tip to Instapundit) thinks Russia's losses defy Biden administration observations that "Russia is surging ahead" in men and materiel. That's what I wrote about here and here recently.
Russia prioritizes armored vehicles for scarce ball bearings: "Russian railroads are at the point of collapse. This process began before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. This process was underway before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The covid-19 pandemic disrupted ball bearing production worldwide." Huh.
Good! "Converting Ukrainian rail lines from Russian to European gauge is not only necessary economically, but also militarily to deter the Russians from invading again, or cripple their logistics if they do." I've long wanted Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to do that, too.
A call to wage legal sabotage of China's defense industrial base.
To deter China convince the Chinese that a war for Taiwan will be long. Hmmm. I say, as I argued in Military Review, convince the Chinese the war will end with the PLA driven into the sea.
Brexit was Britain cutting the anchor of Europe loose.
I remember being a bit disappointed in Musk at the time. Why didn't the news tell me he had to deny Ukraine's request to stay within U.S. law? "Starlink was barred from turning on satellite beams in Crimea at the time, because doing so would violate US sanctions against Russia!" Tip to Instapundit.
If South Korea gets nukes it would have to gut its conventional military to pay for it? Quitting the non-proliferation treaty would make South Korea a rogue state? America would punish South Korea? Really? North Korea builds nukes. America abandoned Afghanistan. Iran gets rewarded! Ah, Smart Diplomacy!®
Stalemate in Ukraine on the ground pushes emphasis on an air war to seek advantage: "As in WWII, air power in Ukraine cannot and will not be the key to victory."
Do Iran's ballistic missiles work? I've noted that its large April attack on Israel demonstrated many flaws in the missiles. Without the missiles, nuclear warheads are less than useful. Of course, flaws in the Iran nuclear deal are the reason Iran can try to make its missiles work.
What would the wartime mission be? "The U.S. Marine Corps and South Korea joined for Exercise Ssang Yong 24 on Monday along the coastal area of Songra-myeon, Pohang, South Korea with four big-deck amphibious ships — two U.S. and two Korean."
To be seen is to be hit: "the Army is studying to change its tactics and incorporate technology into its formations faster to keep up with the changing face of warfare where sensing capabilities are prolific and unmanned aerial systems, UAS, or drones overhead can easily pinpoint targets." Shoot first. Keep moving.
From the same exercise above, cheap electronic decoys to lure the enemy into revealing its assets.
What kind of training makes the best vehicle gunners?
Is the fifth column useful idiots or on the other side? "The Post’s Isabel Vincent reported exclusively Friday that Iran is funding anti-Israel, pro-Hamas groups and campus protests via a network of activist groups whose names bear no sign of Tehran’s ties." Approved collusion, of course. Tip to Instapundit.
Feel the Joy! Or else! "Christmas will start next month in Venezuela, authoritarian leader Nicolas Maduro has decreed – even as thousands of Venezuelans look set to pass the holidays behind bars amid his government’s crackdown on political unrest." Tip to Instapundit.
Reaper's replacement will be a jet-powered drone. This is Big Drone and not the cheap, disposable stuff.
So how good is our weather intelligence to identify weather conditions conducive to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? Although if China destroys our weather satellites--or cuts off China weather station data--I think that is warning enough. But could we detect data distortions to deceive in time to react?
Will AI-equipped air defenses nullify stealth aircraft? Stealth provides very low signature--not zero signature. Can AI detect that weak evidence? And some interesting aircraft production angles.
More push-back over the Marine Force Design radical redesign. I have concerns and the "rally 'round the Force Design flag" response to concerns does not increase my confidence in the changes.
How close is Iran to nukes? "Some worry Iran could use the Middle East’s instability, and the war in
Gaza, as a pretext to further expand its nuclear capabilities—if not
make a dash for a bomb." Indeed. Iran's mullahs are nutballs--not stupid:
Maybe we need more training in not being stupid by traveling to hostile countries: "A U.S. Navy sailor has been detained in Venezuela after traveling there unauthorized on personal business, the Pentagon said Wednesday." Does everybody want American hostages these days? The question was rhetorical.
Get there first with the most information: "The U.S. military should learn from the Ukrainian experience, which put a premium on the value of loose coordination to ensure speed in countering Russian propaganda[.]" Your host has an indirect role in highlighting crippling fear of information war errors.
Would Russia gain more of a propaganda advantage by downing a F-16 than Ukraine would gain by using the planes close to or across the border with Russia? In a war of mass and mass losses, it seems so odd that a single plane could provide that much of a propaganda edge for Russia.
Russia would like Africa to export fewer raw materials and more illegal migrants to Europe: "As of this year, Russia has increased its efforts to influence operations in Africa that cause political and economic problems for NATO countries." Is Mali really going to use Russian help to restore democracy?
Senior NCOs on on"USS Manchester decided they should have real WiFi while the sailors could throw messages in a bottle overboard. Senior leadership lets this happen. The pressure to keep 75 surface warships available must be high. And stresses the fleet, exacerbating our failure to build enough ships.
The U.S. reacted to a lack of American merchant ships in both world wars to build up its transport fleet. We could not translate that wartime success into peacetime commercial success. I doubt America could repeat its ship recovery in the next war. It's an interesting tale of structurally high labor and steel costs.
Remember when Turkey issues Assad an ultimatum to just stop? Thirteen years later, never mind. For all the talk of the need for perfect plans and exit strategies, sometimes just not giving up works well enough. For Assad and his omelet cronies, of course--not Syria's millions of eggs.
For the Russian Arctic garden party, a couple stealth fighters play the role of the skunk: "On Sept. 4, 2024, two F-35A jets belonging to the 495th Fighter Squadron of the 48th Fighter Wing operated out of a road strip in Finland for the first time."
The EU in action: "Two months after pledging to shape a legal framework that would give Ukraine the interest earned on frozen Russian assets, the EU still hasn’t taken the necessary steps to make this a reality. And time is running out on Ukraine’s finances." The EU wants the power to act--action is not a priority.
Fortunately, Ukraine is better at drones: "FPV drones are precision weapons and now account for most of the Russian casualties." Is this data is current or is it based on Ukrainian artillery ammunition shortages. FPV drones are useful. I'm just not flinging panties at them. Also, a discussion of fuel-air explosives.
The importance of experience for troop effectiveness; and how to train experience into the troops. I was surprised that Ukraine didn't use experienced troops to equip their new brigades for the 2023 counteroffensive.
War with Iran is the "last thing" America should want? "U.S. military force against Iran will have first and second-order effects, all of them negative." Mullahs with nukes are actually the last thing America should want. First- and second-order effects of that would be much worse. A revolution would be least bad.
Give China an inch in the South China Sea and they'll take a mile: "The Philippines and like-minded states should not buttress or in any other way legitimize China’s actions by negotiating rights that China has no legal claim to. Doing so undermined the global rules-based order."
Xi and Kim delay a crisis: "Russian regimes have been toppled by revolutions on three occasions—1905, 1917, and in 1990—each time due to the state trying to sustain a war or a military buildup for which it lacked resources. [Russian losses] increased speculation the Ukraine war could make this a fourth time."
Small units need anti-drone defenses. What should that look like? The article focuses on ground vehicles. I say small units need fighter drones in the "brown skies" above them, as I wrote in Army magazine.
Diversity is not the Navy's strength. Yeah, woke lips sink ships. Preparing to fight clearly isn't the highest priority. Diversity should mean assimilating every person without prejudice into a Navy warfighting melting pot--not downgrading warfighting to promote demographic tribalism.
Good: "Seven NATO countries completed an Iceland-based exercise aimed at defending vital underwater lines of communication and sea routes against conventional military threats and acts of sabotage." Russia's naval interdiction capabilities in the GIUK gap are weak. But it's best not to tempt them.
The Chinese have many targets: "Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said Thursday that Malaysia will not bow to demands by China to stop its oil and gas exploration in the South China Sea as the activities are within the country’s waters."
In addition to ammunition and whatnot, the latest American military aid package to Ukraine includes Bradley Fighting Vehicles, M113 armored personnel carriers, and MRAPs. I've been wondering about the absence of armored fighting vehicles in the packages.
LOL (tip to Instapundit). A writer of my own heart.
A thousand grains of sand: "For the second time this year, Chinese students studying in neighboring countries were arrested for espionage activities in South Korea and Japan. This is nothing new as China has been expanding its espionage activities for some time."
Good news for Israel. Bad news for Ukraine: "US and European officials reported that Iran delivered hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia to support Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine." But what is Iran getting in return for sacrificing capabilities to attack Israel?
Russia's revived threat has revived American concerns for the Arctic, especially missile attacks: "Now the Americans are reviving their Arctic military bases and over-the-horizon radars." How long before we have POLARCOM? Arctic warfare has unique challenges just to survive--let alone fight.
Bastards: "Russian forces are increasingly executing surrendering Ukrainian soldiers throughout the frontline likely in part because Russian commanders appear to be endorsing the proliferation of such war crimes." It's usually a bad idea to surrender in battle.
That's a relief. Now bring the crew home: "The landing was long-delayed, coming more than three months into an orbital mission originally expected to last about 10 days. And, while Starliner launched with two NASA astronauts aboard — Williams and Butch Wilmore — nobody rode it home." Tip to Instapundit.
Ouch. Michigan was not ready to play Texas on Saturday. I knew our offense needed work, but I expected our defense to keep the game close. Maybe if we see them in the playoffs we'll be ready. But bigger problems of being ready for the rest of our games in this season have to be corrected before that.
