Ending the Winter War of 2022 only takes reimagining Russia? More like reimagining reality.
There is so much wrong with this that it is almost depressing to address:
The depiction of Russia as an inescapable enemy is a dangerous narrative that will only undermine the long-term interests of the United States and the West by fostering permanent strategic ties between Russia and China. Notwithstanding the challenges posed by the Ukraine War, Washington must sooner or later develop a formula to exercise the kind of three-cornered diplomacy between Moscow, Beijing, and Washington developed by President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger that helped win the Cold War and bring stability between these three powers. At the same time, Washington diplomats will have to help find a solution to the Ukraine war that somehow will be acceptable to all protagonists.
But I must.
Russia chose to make a disarming NATO its enemy. And look what it led to. This is on Russia and not NATO's fault.
While we would obviously like to split Russia from China as I've long advocated, no Russia flip will be secure and sincere if it is achieved by feeding bits of Ukraine to Russia as the price:
Does the West need to provide Russia with a generous "off ramp" to end its war on Ukraine? No. engineering a ceasefire that "saves" Ukraine by giving Russia some of Ukraine will eventually be described as a Western betrayal that denied Russia's glorious military all of Ukraine.
The real basis for a flip as Nixon did is having a common enemy. If the Russians would get their head out of their Putin, they'd see that China is the real threat while NATO is the pretend threat that Russia has growled at to hide their appeasement of the real threat.
So don't make the tremendous mistake of thinking China-Russian "friendship" is permanent. China may think taking on a weakened Russia is far wiser than taking on America and its allies.
Finally, since when is it our job to find a way to make the brutal aggressor--Russia--accept a peace deal. Reagan didn't try to reward the Soviet Union to get them to accept losing Afghanistan or Eastern Europe. He knew the only acceptable outcome is that we win and they lose.
And lose the Soviets did, not long after Reagan left office. They marched out of Afghanistan and they packed their bags and left their Eastern European Empire--and more--losing the USSR itself!
That author cites revolutionary France as an example of a country turned into an ally:
Prince Klemens von Metternich ended the Napoleonic Wars, which cost millions of lives over twelve years, by allowing a defeated France to join the victorious allies, Austria, Prussia, Russia, and Great Britain, in 1815 as a member of the Concert of Europe.
Sure. That's a fine objective. One day. We should want to split Russia from China. But have no doubt that Russia
needs America's friendship far more than America needs Russia's
friendship.
Before we try to achieve that, first there's the matter of Putin's final defeat at his Waterloo and a final prison on his St. Helena.
Make Russian diplomats struggle to find a solution to their invasion of Ukraine that is somehow acceptable to Ukraine and NATO. That is actual smart diplomacy and not retreat disguised as statesmanship.
UPDATE (Monday): For all the talk of Russia overwhelming Ukraine with its size, Russia has failed to break Ukraine despite half a year of no American military aid. Yes, Russia has advanced:
But with around two months of the summer left, it has failed to achieve its most ambitious goals: there has been neither a grand Russian breakthrough nor a general collapse of the Ukrainian front line.
And the price Russia has paid for its gains has been very high.
UPDATE: The trickle begins:
The first F-16s have arrived in Ukraine, finally giving Kyiv the venerable fourth-generation multirole fighter it has sought for over a year, according to multiple reports.
This has taken way too long. We had an alternative--that I raised 21 months ago--in my opinion.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.