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Saturday, May 11, 2024

The Theory is Fine. Reality isn't So Kind

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, the voices that say America should split Russia from China have grown louder. I've long wanted to do that. But throwing victims to the Russian bear is no way to make Russia an ally of the West.

It would be nice to split Russia from China

But the idea that we should throw Ukraine under the bus to get it is not be a solid foundation of Russia-Western friendship

Further, what does NATO do for Russia? No matter how much NATO notices Chinese power, the alliance is hardly going to extend Article V defense guarantees to the Amur River. I mean, if Hawaii technically isn't protected by NATO, the alliance isn't going to war across the Tran-Siberian Railroad against China.

A solid basis for a detente' in the west is China's threat to Russia's Far East. I hear more recognition of that lately after my long campaign to raise that issue.

With a calm western front that serves as a safe Russian rear area, Russia could pivot its forces to the east to hold their Far East territories from Chinese ambitions to erase that part of the Century of Humiliation.

And don't forget Central Asia.

Russia had a plan. But Putin forgot that. So made Russia's strategic situation worse. And then made it much worse

Will Putin get desperate enough to do the unthinkable and accept defeat in Ukraine to face China before it is too late?

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post