The Dog That Did Not Bark in the Strait

American amphibious assaults largely use rotary wing aircraft to move troops ashore. Why do we ignore that helicopters can take of from land, too?

Is the lack of a Chinese amphibious warfare fleet proof that China cannot invade Taiwan? And proof indeed that China has no intention of invading? I reject both arguments.

I don't buy the idea that China isn't serious about invading Taiwan because China has no large Marine force and no amphibious warfare fleet like America has:

I think special forces, direct-action spies, infiltrated light forces, airborne and airliftable forces, limited amphibious operations, and a lot of assaults on Taiwan's ports with PLA Army troops carried by Chinese Coast Guard and civilian vessels would be the means of getting ashore. 

The Chinese objective would be Taipei, going for the jugular with both airborne and air mobile forces and the smaller amphibious force:

China's marine forces would have smaller but important direct and supporting roles.

One thing I still hold is that China does not plan an invasion over Taiwan's limited beaches. If China planned D-Day 2.0, China would have built up its marine force and amphibious lift to do that. Taiwan is the most core of China's core interests. If those forces were needed, China would have far more by now.

China's marines are a red herring. Scrutinizing them for clues about China's intentions and capabilities for taking over Taiwan is counterproductive.

It makes sense that China is closely looking at Russia's experience with using helicopters in the invasion of Ukraine:

Over the last 20 years China has invested in building up a massive force of modern military helicopters. Chinese sources explicitly state such forces "were largely designed around cross-sea flight operations" – namely for the Taiwan scenario.

China itself is a giant amphibious platform 100 miles away from Taiwan:

If you have a giant amphibious platform 100 miles away (China itself), you have options other than big deck amphibious ships to move your helicopters close to the target, eh?

Why would China need a fleet of big deck amphibious ships to move your helicopters close to the target? China is already close to the core objective of China's current foreign policy.

And if China simply gets ashore, will Taiwanese morale hold? Taiwan might collapse or simply fail to eject the invaders, setting up a final round two of conquest months or years later. 

Maybe the biggest lesson China learns from Russia is that even a poorly executed invasion can grab a lot of territory with the initial surge. And Taiwan is much smaller than Ukraine which had the territorial depth to absorb that surge without falling.

Ultimately, I'd like to distract the dog in the strait rather than deter or defeat it. 

UPDATE: Huh. I addressed this long ago, too. And remember that while some say China can't invade because they lack the dedicated amphibious warfare fleet America has, our capacity is no more than two brigades.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.