NOTE: Oops. I posted this a day early.
FFS: "A first group of six Ukrainian pilots is not expected to complete training on the U.S.-made F-16 before next summer, senior Ukrainian government and military officials said[.]" This kind of peacetime thumb-up-your-ass complacency is unacceptable. We could have jump started this a long time ago.
Red Flag adapts to the "pacing" threat: "One of the U.S. Air Force’s largest combat training exercises this summer focused on an expanded battlefield to prepare for threats posed by China and North Korea, a training officer said recently."
The good NATO news: "Germany will own NATO's second largest helicopter fleet with the 60 Chinooks it announced it was buying last month, German Air Force Chief Ingo Gerhartz was quoted as saying on Friday." The bad NATO news: Germany will be able to airlift its entire tiny army.
Hell, I welcome nearly-disarmed New Zealand's realization that it needs a defense strategy and force design principles.
Good Lord, how high will the final casualty count be? "The death toll in Maui, Hawaii has reached 93 as the devastating wildfires become the deadliest in US modern history."
China has long had a problem of whether it would grow old before it grows rich. That is, can it afford to take care of its growing legions of the elderly. Recent trends and data seem to make that problem more real. We also can see that the Wuhan Flu Covid-19 virus--engineered in a Wuhan, China bio lab--is mostly lethal to the elderly. I assume I'm late to the game in noting this. But I don't visit the wilder parts of the Internet. And I may have raised this before. But is it out of line to wonder if the Chinese Communist Party was working on a virus to "solve" that problem of taking care of the elderly with too few working-age people by getting rid of the elderly and blaming it on nature? After all, securing CCP rule is the highest priority of the CCP. You might have to break millions of already cracked eggs for that lovely monopoly of state power omelet.
Endorsed. Trump was screwed in 2020 by a host of factors and actors, unfairly demonized from 2016 to ... well, now. But the important part going forward is not validating that Trump was screwed and how badly he was demonized. If he's nominated, I'll vote for him. But he is getting old. And he already changed the terms of debate. That may be his most important achievement. If he is the Republican nominee I fear he'll just be a two-time martyr when the election is done. The important part now isn't compensating Trump for 2020. The important part is winning in 2024. And I think the unfair demonization of Trump has alienated him from the vast middle of the electorate. That's jarringly unfair. But it is the reality. If Trump can't see the promised land, so be it. Tip to Instapundit.
Early in the Winter War of 2022, this metric was used by some opposed to sanctioning Russia to prove that Western sanctions weren't working: "The Russian ruble has reached its lowest value since the early weeks of the war in Ukraine as Western sanctions weigh on energy exports and weaken demand for the national currency." My definition of "working" has always been to make things harder for Russia--not to win on its own.
Ukraine could still succeed without air superiority. My view is that if you have good ground-based fire support, that is sufficient as long as you at least nullify the enemy air force. Mind you, air superiority is great if you get it. And we do rely on it to make up for less artillery than Russia uses, for example.
We're from the government and we're here to help.
Please form an orderly line to show me on the doll where Joe Biden touched you. Tip to Instapundit.
A very futuristic idea! I give it a month--six weeks, tops--before every one of them has their tires removed and they're being used as homeless pods on the city's sidewalks. Tip to Instapundit.
Remainers said the 2016 Brexit vote would permanently settle the issue. Until they lost. I believe the issue will only be finally settled if Remainers manage to get another vote and win it.
Putin hates Ukraine's anti-corruption efforts. Ukrainian corruption allowed Russia to dominate the country until the 2014 revolution. I should correct my prior statement that failing to eliminate corruption just dooms Ukraine to being a weaker version of larger corrupt Russia. I should say that at best that is the result. Although I did recognize that. Of course, Russian corruption isn't making Putin's war any easier.
Actual Resistance to a tyrant. It probably won't make a difference. But who knows?
Did Russia manage to smuggle or make modern optics to produce new tanks?
The Baltic Sea is not becoming "ground zero" of the Winter War of 2022. This is a land war. Ground zero is actual ground. The naval struggle may grow more important, but it will never be ground zero.
Another round of American military aid to Ukraine.
Israeli natural gas could go to Europe. If I recall correctly, Europeans shunned Israeli gas before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Small suicide drones: aerial snipers.
New vaccine for Eris variant of Covid-19. Not many are expected to get it. Perhaps our public health and medical establishments forfeited their credibility by misleading us on Covid issues, eh? I might have gotten it except that I started with Johnson and Johnson. That's out and I'd rather not start a new type with unknown side effects. And I did survive a mild infection of Covid. I'm still healthy. I expect I'd survive another. Your mileage may vary. Tip to Instapundit.
And it works against China, too: "The United States, Japan and South Korea are expected to announce plans for expanded military cooperation on ballistic missile defenses and technology development in the face of growing concern about North Korea’s nuclear program[.]" China deserves this after using their little pet psycho to threaten us all these decades.
But this contradicts what the Democrats and the media constantly tell me! "A new report out of the University of Chicago shows that millions more people favor using violence to keep Donald Trump from the presidency than those who would use it to put him back in the Oval Office." Violence is okay. But nobody would rig and election to stop him? Tip to Instapundit.
Well, bomber-like planes with the right weapons: "Under a new proposal, Japanese C-2 planes would use the American Rapid Dragon system to quickly convert them from long-range transport jets into bombers. The postwar government banned bombers as weapons of aggressive warfare, but military pressure from its neighbors is pushing Tokyo to reconsider." Well, a peace constitution isn't a suicide pact.
But I was assured the victorious Taliban 2.0 was more enlightened than the original! "The Taliban view their rule of Afghanistan as open-ended, drawing legitimacy from Islamic law and facing no significant threat, their chief spokesman said in an interview marking the second anniversary of the Taliban takeover of the country. He also suggested a ban on female education will remain in place." Being on a Mission from God opens up lots of policy options.
Options against Iran's naval forces. I'm of the view that if Iran starts something at sea we should take the opportunity to sink everything of theirs that floats.
Reaction follows action: "Reality has set in on both sides of the Pacific with respect to Communist China. The Philippine Star is reporting that joint U.S.-Philippine coast guard patrols will take to the sea by year’s end."
Some people sure appear motivated to get Ukraine to lose their war against Russia's invasion. If Ukraine gets tired of fighting, believing that is not an acceptable cost, surely everyone will rethink their policies. But stop trying to help Russia win.
Russia displays captured Western weapons, claiming Ukraine is running out. Question: Why does the British armored vehicle shown in the article have a desert paint job? Who knows how many of the weapons came from the current battlefields and how many came from Russia's lost-and-found bin? Indeed, how many came from Russia's 2008 war against Georgia?
That SOB isn't "cancelling" student debt. He's making other people pay the debts of student loan recipients who earned a degree! If you you get the product you should pay what you owe. Biden probably assumes he gets 10%. Let's go Brandon.
Hawaii: "The Pentagon put Army National Guard Brig. Gen. Stephen Logan in charge of a multi-pronged military response to the deadly Maui wildfires, synchronizing Guard and active duty troops as they ferry supplies, put out any new fires, or do anything else federal emergency responders ask."
Northern Strike exercises at Camp Grayling highlight the Michigan National Guard-Latvia partnership.
Is Somalia as a state not quite as hopeless as I think it is?
9/11 terrorists in custody may not face death penalty. Dude, that was like 22 years ago! And if our government thinks it was fine to lose the war we launched after terrorists killed nearly 3,000 of us at home, why should the families of the victims care about the fate of the killers? Get over it. Biden did.
China's subliminal invasion of the South China Sea continues at Triton Island: "China appears to be constructing an airstrip on a disputed South China Sea island that is also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan, according to satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press."
Ten thousand Ukrainian civilians have died in the war. Not going to lie. I thought it would be much more. But the nature of the fighting--rapid overrunning of territory and people with little fighting followed by slow frontal assaults that allow time to withdraw civilians from the front--have reduced the toll. Nor is there much of an insurgency behind Russian lines. Which I assume is deliberate to avoid needless deaths while Ukraine's army fights to liberate them.
Welp, Russia carried out the most brilliant information operation ever to undermine Ukrainian morale and sustain Russian morale. There isn't another explanation, is there? Please be a joke.
The Army's MRIC mobile Iron Dome.
Russia is depleting its large open-air armored vehicle storage site (nearly 4,000 armored vehicles) in Siberia: "It was eventually noted that in early 2023 that 40 percent of the armored vehicles stored at Vagzhanovo had been removed after being refurbished enough to make them operational and sent to Russian forces in Ukraine." Every day more of Russia's dwindling military power is sucked west. That might be a problem for Russia.
America's bone yard: "Over 4,500 aircraft are stored at AMARC, and 500-2,000 spare parts orders are filled each month. Not just for American military aircraft, but for those of allies as well." Of course, concentrating all our old aircraft in one place in case of a world war relies on the continental United States being a sanctuary. That's an obsolete assumption.
Buh bye: "The US Navy officially decommissioned a warship with a reported cost of $362 million this week after less than five years of service. It was meant to serve for 25 years." I'd be fine with this if the ships were being put in the mothball fleet to be resurrected in war as expendable anti-ship vessels during a major naval war. The ship wouldn't have to live long to serve well. But the story says she will be put up for foreign sale. Unless that is disinformation. Fingers crossed.
Has Putin ordered a repeat of the Bakhmut offensive at Kupiansk with 100,000 troops and 900 tanks and other weapons massed in the east? But without the prisoner cannon fodder? Can regular Russian army troops willing to advance with that kind of suicidal approach?
DARPA looking at how to plan infrastructure on the Moon. Via Instapundit.
Ukraine requested more training for Abrams tank units until their new tanks arrive. At some level I assumed Ukraine would send experienced troops to the new units getting Western equipment. I made a major assumption failure. Perhaps the NATO view was that troops without experience in Soviet/Russian style combat would not have to be untrained before being trained. But that's not working in practice, it seems. But I'm open to that NATO view being right--just not right enough.
Putting the force in Space Force: "A new unit activated recently at Peterson Space Force Base, Colo., is the branch’s first-ever targeting squadron, designed to scope out adversary space capabilities and present options to the joint force on how to neutralize them."
The U.S. does not support the resistance the Taliban in Afghanistan. Why? "'The country was at war for 44 years,' the [State Department] spokesperson said. 'We do not want to see a return to conflict in Afghanistan and we hear from Afghans that they don’t either.' Odd how that aversion to conflict didn't break our until after we abandoned our Afghan allies and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. So this attitude makes perfect sense: "The only reason Afghans aren’t standing up against the Taliban right now is the perception that the Taliban are supported by the U.S.[.]" Samefully--and against our interests--America decided to lose that war.
Will Niger's neighbors reverse the coup or accept it? "West African defense chiefs met Thursday to discuss the crisis in Niger after coup leaders there ignored their deadline to step down, leaving the region’s countries with few options in their effort to restore democratic rule."
The Hawaii fires were not caused by climate change. Human officials effed up. Tip to Instapundit. Carbon is the new Devil that can be blamed for everything. Like I said, Climate Change is a religion: "And last but not least, they have their Devil: Beelzecarbon. In all it's forms, seductive though it may be with air conditioning and all that." Now go and emit no more.
Water to fight a Hawaii fire was held back until it was too late to contain it because an official had concerns about ... equity. FFS, we're just too stupid to survive, aren't we? Tip to Instapundit.
OUT: Claiming elections were stolen defends our democracy. IN: Claiming elections were stolen threaten our democracy. Tip to Instapundit.
Well that would make too much sense! "The Pentagon on Thursday reiterated its denial that US forces fighting the Islamic State group have moved to cut off the Iran-backed militias' access to a key border crossing between Iraq into Syria." If we do it will just be part of a choreographed pretend clash that a nuclear deal with Iran will "solve". All hail Smart Diplomacy® in action!
The Biden administration told young Russian men they could flee here rather than go to war in Ukraine. Welp: "The U.S. has deported nearly 190 Russians since the beginning of October 2022, almost three times as many as were removed during the entire prior year." They effed up. They trusted us. Truly, Smart Diplomacy® is friggin' awesome.
While there is some reality related to the author's suggestion, it is strategically insane to deliberately put more crucial American industry in Taiwan close to China to ensure America will fight China to avoid losing that industry! Rather than deterring China it may induce China to invade to capture that vital industry. FFS. Strategery.
I can't say this is wrong: "The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive
will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people
familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post[.]" Still, the leak says Ukraine can push to withing "several miles" of the city. But where were these assessments before the counteroffensive started? We helped Ukraine wargame their options. Or this is disinformation to lull the Russians. Could go either way.
Biden's willing media accomplices. Fact-checkers need not apply.
Corruption exceeds compassion: "At least 1,400 people have starved to death in Ethiopia's northern Tigray since food aid was suspended because it was being stolen, an official has said." Good Lord ...
This just feels staged: "Iran's foreign minister met Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler on Friday during his first visit since the Middle East rivals announced a surprise rapprochement, officials said." What are they trying to achieve? I certainly don't believe there is any rapprochement involved.
Does Ukraine really have no path to victory? My choice of calling this war the Winter War of 2022 was a deliberate callback to the 1939-1940 Winter War between the USSR and Finland. Finland lost that war and had to give up significant territory. But the heavy casualties that Soviet troops endured may have deterred Stalin and future leaders from trying again. Finland was quietly cooperative with the USSR but was clearly Western in orientation. And with patience, Finland outlasted the USSR and is now a NATO state. I've raised this potential path for Ukraine to, if not victory, survival and eventual prosperity. Although it is clearly far from ideal and I don't want that to be Plan A. I don't rule out that Ukraine can yet push Russia's ground forces past the breaking point on some section of the front.
Is Russia's war on Ukraine giving China pause in thinking about invading Taiwan? I'm doubtful. I think China is learning it doesn't need to succeed as much as Russia has to conquer Taiwan.
I've already written that I think the real rigging of the 2020 election was 4 years of outrageous Democratic Party propaganda willingly amplified by the party's media auxiliary. So add in often-illegal laws that made it impossible to check mail ballots and then this claim--which I can't dismiss as nonsense--and you don't need government rigging. Tip to Instapundit.
Italy is upgrading its tanks and buying German tanks in order to meet NATO requirements to have 250 working tanks. Italy only had 50 working tanks when Russia invaded Ukraine.
I think a NATO escort mission to protect shipping to and from Ukraine is a bad idea. Better to help Ukraine sink Russian warships and submarines. Just because we can do it doesn't mean we should. Why risk a direct NATO-Russia war when Russia is bleeding out in the current fight at such little risk to NATO?
Six years ago, we had 2,000 Abrams tanks sitting in a depot. They provide the raw material for "new" tanks put together in our Ohio tank plant. And if it takes this long to provide Ukraine with 30 tanks, doesn't this make replacing losses for American units in combat practically impossible? So before you mock Russia for having to refurbish old tanks to fight Ukraine, remember what our capabilities are. It disturbs me that we can't build new tanks.
ISW notes that purported leaks of an American intelligence assessment that Ukraine can't take Melitopol and so can't cut the land bridge to Crimea isn't quite as clear as that story has been portrayed. Ukraine could still put ground lines of communication within range of larger mortars. In addition, Melitopol isn't the only endpoint for cutting off Crimea's overland supply lines. I think Melitopol is the best spot. But Ukraine has options. I'd hope our efforts would focus on helping Ukraine succeed rather than preparing our public for failure--including blaming failure on Ukraine's decision to fight for Bakhmut--a criticism that ignores the high casualties Russia endured and apparently assumes that Russia would have stopped at Bakhmut if it hadn't suffered so many casualties.
How much of Russia's vaunted defensive line is a Potemkin facade? I still have hope that corruption may have undermined the value of what has been built further back. And I wonder if Russia can fall back in good order if pushed out of the admittedly good forward defenses.
The desperately poor are usually too busy surviving to revolt. But is there no limit to what the North Korean people will endure? "North Korea is increasing its repression of human rights and people are becoming more desperate and reportedly starving in parts of the country as the economic situation worsens, the U.N. rights chief said Thursday."
It would be bad if that turned into an African Alamo: "The U.S. military is making plans to evacuate its drone bases in Niger, but no such order is imminent, said Air Force Gen. James Hecker, commander of US Air Forces Europe/Africa." We have 1,100 troops there.
