Europe is important to American security. Don't pretend it isn't important just because Asia is more important. Stopping Russia farther east enables a more significant American pivot to Asia.
Sure, Asia is more important to American security and prosperity than Europe.
A Russian victory in Ukraine or a negotiated settlement that left Russia in control of some eastern provinces of Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula would not undermine the balance of power in the Euro-Atlantic, but China’s control of Taiwan would seriously undermine the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific. That is the stark geopolitical reality. But the very worst-case scenario would be if our refusal to engage in strategic sequencing results in the United States fighting a two-front war in Europe and the western Pacific.
America has been pivoting its military power to Asia since the West won the Cold War.
But don't make the mistake of thinking Europe has no or minimal importance.
And yes, sequencing our main effort has always been necessary.
Still, recall that in World War II, despite the "Europe first" policy, America initially had to devote scarce military power to Asia to hold off the surging Japanese.
Right now the Russian threat is smaller but ongoing while the Chinese threat is latent but more dangerous. So yes, a little short-term focus on Europe is justified even as we continue to pivot to Asia in the big picture.
As for Ukraine not being that important, as the author states? Sure, maybe not exactly at this exact moment in time. But in the long run I want Russia as far east as possible. How far west is the red line for Russian advances before Europe increases in importance? And how much more dangerous would Russia be with those conquests?
And how much more power would America need to earmark to defending Europe at the expense of Asia if Russia strengthens? Perhaps Europeans should be able to defend themselves. But I worry how "Europe" does that. The cure would be worse than the disease. I'd rather knit together national European militaries through NATO. Remember, Europe is an American objective and not a charity case.
But let's not lead with territorial concessions as our opening negotiating position. Russia will bank that as a foundation of a deal and push for more. And God help us but there will be Westerners who think splitting the difference between our opening offer and Russia's greater demands is actually a "compromise" deal.
Let's focus on helping Ukraine achieve battlefield victories over the invaders as our priority now. That's the sequencing I want.
But the bottom line is that I really don't like all the "let the Wookie win" arguments for a Russian victory over Ukraine masquerading as hard-headed realpolitik.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 continues here.
