Until there is solid evidence, my working assumption is that the Nordstream Baltic Sea pipeline explosions were an entirely predictable accident.
The Germans think somebody sabotaged the Baltic Sea Nordstream pipelines from Russia:
Germany suspects the Nord Stream gas pipeline system was damaged by an act of sabotage, in what would amount to a major escalation in the standoff between Russia and Europe.
According to a German security official, the evidence points to a violent act rather than a technical issue. Swedish seismologists detected two explosions in the area on Monday, when leaks appeared almost simultaneously in the Baltic Sea.
Did Russia do it to figuratively burn their bridges behind them as a sign of resolve to inspire European fear they'll never get Russian energy back? Did Ukraine--or some other country--do it to prevent Europe from abandoning Ukraine for Russian energy? Was it an accident (via Instapundit), however odd it seems now?
In my experience when anything involving energy-industry hydrocarbons explodes … well, sabotage isn’t the first thing that comes to mind. And honestly, when it comes to a pipeline running natural gas under Russian (non)maintenance, an explosion means that it’s Tuesday. Or Friday. Or another day of the week ending in “y”.
As another part of that first article reports:
“It’s hard to imagine that these are coincidences,” Mette Frederiksen, Denmark’s prime minister, told reporters Tuesday. “We can’t rule out sabotage.”
Coincidence? No. But is it really hard to imagine an accident under Russian control? That's not a "coincidence" issue.
Don't be too eager to yell "Remember the Maine Nordstream!" It could be the Fuck-Up Fairy. The Ukraine war has demonstrated that Russia's conventional military is in poor shape. If that societal failing leads me to suspect its nukes work no better, why would a dormant undersea pipeline be any different?
It could even be an accident from shifting and unstable munitions dumped in the Baltic Sea since World War II.
Hell, could China have done it, trying to get Russia and NATO to wreck each other and save China from Peak China?
I don't rule out Russian sabotage. But until I see solid evidence, I'm assuming an accident from poor Russian maintenance.
UPDATE: I'm persuadable. But I'll need more than this:
Sweden’s domestic security agency said Thursday that its preliminary investigation of leaks from two Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea “has strengthened the suspicions of serious sabotage” as the cause and a prosecutor said evidence at the site has been seized.
NOTE: War coverage continues here.
