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Sunday, April 24, 2022

Weekend Data Dump

War updates continue at this post

This is an interesting article on naval power in the Winter War of 2022. But this statement about Russian interest in the eastern Mediterranean Sea is nonsense: "Absent this pressure point on NATO, it cannot threaten the Atlantic Alliance's soft Mediterranean underbelly[.]" NATO's soft underbelly? Unless he means mass migration from the Middle East and Africa, which is not a military issue, Russia's naval forces in the region would have a short but exciting life during war.

Fear is the beginning of wisdom: "As they watch Russia unleash total war against a European neighbor, Sweden and Finland seem to agree: It’s finally time to join NATO." As long as they are providers and not just consumers of alliance security, of course. Russian behavior seems to have taken care of that objection. 

Breaking the thin Marine littoral line. I'll add that the "line" is supposed to be mobile. So a narrow PLA penetration would be met with those Marine units deploying to the point of attack and flanks. Or perhaps toward the Chinese screen along the rest of the line.

Army afloat prepositioned stocks were used in the Pacific: "Employing land-based prepositioned stocks has been routine in Europe, the Middle East, Japan and South Korea, but prepositioned 'afloat' stock has been underutilized, particularly in the Pacific[.]" Assuming the Navy protects those ships, an Army role in the Pacific would be increased with this method for carrying out its core competency across INDOPACOM and for a Taiwan scenario, in particular.

Funny how that information never leaked. I miss the days when the CIA destabilized foreign governments. Tip to Instapundit.

Hot air.

The Chinese Communist Party is making the virus look better than the party by comparison. What might come of that?

Never, ever say things can't possibly get worse: "Tribal leaders in southern Libya shut down the county’s largest oil field, authorities said Monday, the latest closure of an oil facility amid a bitter standoff between two rival governments." [link fixed]

This is a more significant breach of outpost security than indirect fire: "it is now believed the April 7 attack [on an American outpost in eastern Syria] was carried out by the 'deliberate placement of explosive charges' by one or more individuals at an ammunition holding area and shower facility on the base[.]"

When they find out what the bastards have been doing this to them, there will be Hell to pay, I'm sure!

It's great that Germany has decided to join the West. But I imagine this attitude will still be tough to get rid of: "'In America you had Ronald Reagan as a president, which was a shock for us. We thought: what will he do, this crazy actor with his cowboy boots? Will he set the world on fire? Russia was a place where all the good changes were, perestroika, freedom, wind of change,' [a German newspaper columnist] says." It's almost as if they can't forgive us for saving them from the Nazis and the Soviets.

China's push to understand urban warfare with an eye on Taiwan and China's own cities. On the latter, I wonder if China was worried if it could handle a Hong Kong insurgency rather than a peaceful protest campaign? Also, the suggestion that Taiwan's troubled reserves be prepared to defend Taiwan's urban areas seems like a good one.

Victory? "Last year Pakistan got what it wanted in Afghanistan, with the Pakistan controlled Taliban back in charge. This has now worked out as Pakistan expected. Growing violence inside Afghanistan has become a major problem for eastern/southern neighbor Pakistan but much less a problem for Iran and the northern neighbors. This escalating chaos is directly related to the 30 percent increase in Islamic terrorism related deaths in Pakistan compared to 2020. So far, 2022 appears headed for twice as many Islamic terrorism deaths in Pakistan."

In theory, Ukraine needed to fire 11+ missiles at Moskva to sink her. In reality, two were enough. For some reason the Russians didn't shoot down 6 missiles, and 2 rather than 5 were sufficient to eventually sink the ship. Since Ukraine built the ship and once had one of the class, did Ukraine know precisely where to aim the missiles to make 2 hits enough to sink the ship? Or do models fail to account for poor quality crews and failing to conduct damage control with inadequate equipment?

I always assumed anything created by people could be stolen by people: "Hackers stole $182 million from an Ethereum-based stablecoin protocol in what’s yet another attack on a crypto project." Tip to Instapundit.

Who Democrats punish and who they celebrate. That's not how rule of law is supposed to work. Via Instapundit.

Given that I've long gotten on with my life after vaccination, I was starting to think maybe I was in the lucky cohort that might be naturally immune. Then I got Covid. Thanks Xi Jinping! I was shocked I had it. I had a couple social events coming up, and figured I should reassure guests I only had a cold by getting tested. Oops. I only had a few days of medium cold symptoms (post vaccine symptoms were brief but more severe), but the damn thing hung on a couple weeks before I finally tested negative. On the bright side, the weather has been crappy so I don't feel cheated of spring. And my normal food stockpiles didn't even require me to order online.

Did Russia plan to invade Belarus after Lukashenko's fraudulent "reelection" in 2020? In the end, Russia didn't need to do that when Lukashenko welcomed his new insect overlords.

The Biden administration seems more determined to "save" us from assumed climate change problems at the end of the century than in saving Ukraine and Europe from actual Russian aggression right now. Putin's investment in bolstering Western "green" groups is really paying off.

Collateral damage. The "killing grandma" charge was readily flung. How about "dooming babies"? Via Instapundit.

Sure, that "people of Walmart" stuff was hilarious! But this has gone too far!

The tank is not obsolete when it fights within a combined arms team: "The question of whether or not tanks are 'obsolete' is a question 'military analysts have been asking since they first appeared on the battlefield,' history professor Stephen Mihm wrote at Bloomberg. Going back as far as World War I when the tank was introduced, military officials pondered if they would ever be used again after the war[.]" I was all over the defense of the tank early. If mobile protected firepower is needed, what replaces the tank that currently provides that?

The Army really needs to update its ammunition production facilities

Other countries recalibrate their foreign policy based on seeing Russia exposed as less powerful than advertised. Oops.

Insurance: "There have long been four of these prepositioned equipment sites in West Europe. Now there is a new prepositioning site, for an armored brigade, in Poland and it is supposed to be ready in 2022. That will mean equipment for two armored and two mechanized brigades will be stored at sites located in Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and Poland for units needed in East Europe. Another site in West Europe (Italy) contains equipment for a unit that might be needed in Africa."

That reprehensible moron Thomas Friedman says China and Russia give authoritarianism a bad name. No, you panty-flinging dictator fanboy. Authoritarian regimes are bad. But Friedman long dreamed that an authoritarian ruler who agreed with Friedman on global warming--and so was "reasonably enlightened"--would be just grand! The man disgusts me. No link. You're welcome.

A second F-35 engine source is a bad idea? To me, having a second source for F-35 engines seems like good incentive for competitors to get it right. And to surge production in war time. But I'm no expert on this.

Say, how's that "decoupling" coming along? "Experts are warning China’s recent string of COVID-19 lockdowns is about to send another shock through global supply chains." Tip to Instapundit. 

Netflix going broke?  Their politics affecting their products annoy me. But mostly I was annoyed when they raised prices despite having less of what interests me. So I downgraded my account to the lowest level in response to the price increase. This is the last step before ditching the service. How long before they increase their prices to give my a Hillary! series of some sort?

If Congress wants to pass and the president wants to sign a transportation mask requirement, they've been free to do that for the last 16 months. If the law was violated by the CDC to simply do it, the law was violated.

Will Iron Beam allow Israel to kill the rain?

A faint shadow of past Russian efforts to AstroTurf support for Russia abroad. Not even American Democrats are still willing to be Russian useful idiots. Which still kind of shocks me. Remember, notwithstanding the hysterical claims made, Russian efforts to influence our election in 2016 were small, amateurish, and laughable. The real heavy lifting was done by Democrats and the media in the years after. So welcome to the anti-Russian party, pal.

A new Chinese ship-launched anti-ship ballistic missile? Time to review how to break the kill chain.

Did SpaceX shrug off Russian hacking attempts on its satellite network?

WTF is wrong with these people? "The Biden administration is loosening up federal patent rules, opening the door for high-tech companies backed by the Chinese government to raid American inventions in the highly coveted 5G space, according to a growing chorus of critics." But don't dare call it collusion. Via Instapundit.  

Election integrity deniers. Tip to Instapundit. 

Russia in Mali. The Russians would be perfectly happy to see Mali collapse in jihadi/separatist/corruption chaos to destabilize the region and send migrants fleeing to Europe.

India's corruption makes China smile. Although there is hope.

Huh: "A major fire broke out today in a secretive Russian military research center, killing several people, injuring others, and leaving significant damage in its wake. The facility in Tver, 120 miles northwest of Moscow, is responsible for diverse research focused on air defense, but reportedly crosses over between the fields of both space and the military. Most notably, it reportedly studies stealth technologies — and, above all, counters to use against them."

Oh? We're not propping up Ukrainians to fight and die for us. Ukrainians want to fight and are willing to die to defeat Russia's invasion. Ukrainians want our help to fight more effectively and make sure more Russians die. This is not "prolonging" the war. I swear, the author was a Hell of a combat commander in the Persian Gulf War. But he strikes me as a loon since then. 

This is disturbing: "News that the People’s Republic and the Solomons had signed a framework agreement on security cooperation was met with significant unease Tuesday in the U.S., Australia and New Zealand, where officials fear it could pave the way for a Chinese naval base in the Pacific." It isn't even so much that I think China could use this--or other--places to replicate Japan's rapid expansion of a Pacific perimeter. Although given time, who knows? But because I want more "baskets" for our "eggs", every Chinese success deprives America of a basket.

Hahaha!



While Russia is needlessly tied down in Ukraine, Japan is reminding Russia of certain Japanese positions: "Japan describes four islands whose ownership it disputes with Moscow as 'illegally occupied by Russia' in the latest version of a diplomatic report released Friday, using stronger language to describe the territorial flap than other recent versions and underscoring the chilled relations between the two sides amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine." If Russia expects any relief from Japan, Japan has a price.

Woke man's burden. And yet the people who oppose these upper class twits are the racists? Tip to Instapundit.

America is foolish to talk to the EU on defense: "Against the backdrop of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, U.S. and European Union officials are preparing a new meeting later this month officials hope will tie the two global players closer together on defense." The EU's only defense goal is to take away that power from NATO. The EU wants the authority and couldn't care less about being able to defend Europe from Russia.

Meanwhile in the Jihadi Strip: "Israel has carried out air raids in the central Gaza Strip for the second time this week, according to witnesses, with its military saying its fighter jets attacked an underground complex used to produce rocket engines."

Is China wondering if Russia's failures in Ukraine are something China should worry about in relation to Taiwan? Or do the Chinese rulers think they are above the mistakes of smelly steppe barbarians? 

Britain is exploiting Russia's invasion of Ukraine: "Britain and India agreed on Friday to step up defence and business cooperation during a visit to New Delhi by Boris Johnson, who said a bilateral free-trade deal could be wrapped up by October." Of course, this was Britain's broad intent prior to Ukraine. But Russia has led Britain to return to the continent with army units to defend NATO.

Collateral damage: "Turkey says it is closing its airspace [for three months] to Russian civilian and military planes flying to Syria."

India's Israeli made-in-India missile defenses

We're from the government and we're here to help: Lockdowns provided minimal benefits while imposing high costs. Science! Tip to Instapundit.

Being a "planet-saving" green founder of Earth Day makes you immune to cancellation by the Left: "Ira Einhorn was on stage hosting the first Earth Day event at the Fairmount Park in Philadelphia on April 22, 1970. Seven years later, police raided his closet and found the 'composted' body of his ex-girlfriend inside a trunk." Tip to Instapundit.

Macron was reelected.