I want to bring Russia in from the cold to confront China. But I fear Russian paranoia about their western border can't possibly be eased. Going to war with Ukraine won't ease Russian paranoia and allow Russia to turn to face the China threat.
While I think that China and Russia are not natural or stable allies, I readily concede that in the short run their ties could be a major problem for the West and peace:
Yet for all the two countries’ historic animosities and considerable remaining differences, perhaps never in their history have they been closer. And never since World War II have the leading authoritarians of their time been so strategically aligned or personally close—at a time when both are deeply contemplating their legacies.
I think Russia is appeasing China to buy time. But on Putin's self-destructive path it may not be possible to buy enough time. Rather than propping up Russia, closer ties cement Russia's vassal status.
That's quite the Putin legacy.
And in the west, remember that no Russian buffer will ever be enough.
It makes no sense for America and Russia to go to war with each other and make China's hope for dominance easier. I've wanted to heighten Russian-Chinese tensions. And then bring Russia in from the cold.
But the Russian leadership may like the cold.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
UPDATE: There are Russians who oppose the war. Are there Oligarchs and cabinet members who don't want to see Russia go down this self-destructive path all to let Putin add "the Great" to his name in theoretical future history books?
Even if Russia wins because it can steamroller Ukraine, are Russians happy to have lost their post-Cold War chance to join the West as a peaceful and prosperous country?
Are Russians happy to become a vassal of China because the West is now Russia's open enemy because of Putin's war?
UPDATE: I am updating this post Friday to cover new war events.
NOTE: Oops. I added some updates here instead of the post above. I moved them.