It strikes me that Russia is in a difficult position having threatened to invade Ukraine. Anything less than major conquest--and maybe not even that--will push Ukraine closer to the West and make it less willing to deal with Russia on anything.
The Americans and NATO nations have been quietly flying modern weapons into Ukraine. American Special Forces are training Ukrainian counter-terrorism forces and implying (or quietly telling) Ukrainians that the U.S. plans continued support if Russians do move into Ukraine. ... Eastern Europe NATO nations have been sending Ukraine the same message. The Russian threats appear to make it more likely that Ukraine will join NATO. Keeping Ukraine out of NATO is the main objective of the current Russian confrontation.
One weakness argues against war:
One of the biggest state secrets in Russia is how many young men have been killed under Putin’s watch. He pays very close attention to these numbers because it is one of his key political vulnerabilities.
This isn't 1941-1945 any more. Combined with Russia's already inadequate ground forces, I don't think Russia can risk a move to conquer Ukraine let alone risk war with NATO.
Won't anything that merely hurts Ukraine without defeating Ukraine simply push NATO to support Ukraine more openly and push Ukraine to see no choice but to get closer to NATO and truly westernize?
Even Finland and Sweden are edging closer to NATO as Russia's bizarre threats continue.
Unless Putin is threatening to invade Ukraine to get NATO to breathe a sigh of relief when Putin "only" announces that Russian troops exercising in Belarus will remain permanently; or that Russia is "only" annexing the Donbas; or "only" annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, what actual military action makes sense?
Remember, breathing a sigh of relief for a deal is justified only if you assume Putin is planning to attack:
The lack of a diplomatic solution will logically lead to a further escalation of the crisis, and increase the chances that the only way out of it will be through the use of what Russian officials call "military-technical means."
If Putin doesn't plan to attack--or if Russia would suffer more than it gains by attacking--a "diplomatic" solution is simply giving Russia something for the trouble of bluffing.
Russia is willing to bluff for high stakes.
In many ways, Russia's military option seems limited to wrecking Ukraine for a generation to buy time to deal with the real military threat to Russian territorial integrity.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
Comments implying that President Vladimir Putin’s ultimatums and threats against the US, other NATO states and Ukraine are counterproductive have appeared in Russia’s hitherto unimpeachably loyal media. Even muffled dissent in an increasingly authoritarian state suggests that disquiet in the Russian professional security elite may be more widespread than visible.
Maybe Putin will hang by his heels at the hands of frightened Russians before this is over.
