Silly me, it's only treasonous fantasy if Republicans claim elections are rigged! Now it's all clear. Of course, Democratic claims of a rigged election in 2020 prior to winning already made it clear. Tip to Instapundit.
Well: "An Israeli arms manufacturer has developed a robot weapon that can fire
infantry weapons at static and moving targets while flying." My drone combat air patrol idea raised in Army magazine takes shape. [Later: More on SMASH Dragon and other smart sights.]
Fascinating warning: "The pursuit of "absolute national security" can extract a heavy price, a Chinese foreign policy adviser has warned, citing the collapse of the Soviet Union as proof[.]" Well, a collapsed Russia can't distract America, eh? Will Russia heed the warning? Will China?
The North Korean army is a walking corpse: "It used to be that about ten percent of the million men in the military were well supplied and trained. Those units have received less of everything over the last decade, especially food and fuel." Think of their army as solitary confinement for revolution-aged males inside the prison of North Korea.
NATO moved tripwire air and naval forces east.
I don't believe Biden's "limited incursion" gaffe is a "green light" for Russia to attack Ukraine any more than I believe our ambassador in 1990 signaled that it was okay for Iraq to invade Kuwait. In both cases, many more signals contradicted the so-called green lights.
China plugged into the America-sponsored global economy and prospered. Rather than becoming democratic (yet?) China has become aggressive with that new power. But as a frightened world unplugs from China, the Chinese Communist Party will miss being fully in that global economy a lot more than if it never plugged in.
Cyberware won't be as a bad strategically as people fear it could be. My worry is that aggressors believing they are safe in the online world will find they hurt someone enough to retaliate with kinetics. Although in some tactical situations it might be important.
Democracy dies in darkness: Did Biden subcontract Iran nuclear negotiations to Russia? If not, why won't Biden let Congress see the proposal? Shades of "it's not secret but you still can't see them." Via Instapundit.
Say? Whatever happened to this Chinese security guarantee for Ukraine? Could China be quietly restraining Russia? Or was that just a scrap of paper worth nothing more than anything else China signs?
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance. I've long been unhappy with forfeiture laws. Tip to Instapundit.
This tends to make Russia think we're girding for conflict, too: "The State Department on Sunday ordered the families of all American personnel at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine to leave the country amid heightened fears of a Russian invasion."
Maybe the recruiting pool doesn't think joining a woke military is appealing, eh?
Kill 'em all while they are combatants: "The U.S. carried out airstrikes in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces battling an ISIS prison break, the Pentagon confirmed Friday afternoon."
Two American carrier groups exercised in the South China Sea. I assume it is the part far from China.
A Russian invasion of Ukraine will prompt more NATO strength in the east--which is what Russia says it doesn't want. Chimps with nukes.
The Russians loudly threaten to invade Ukraine but then feign shock when NATO reacts, accusing NATO of raising tensions. God help us, there are Westerners who can go along with that.
All I know for sure is that if this was a story about Trump it would be on CNN 24/7. Via Instapundit.
This would certainly explain that concept of second breakfast.
Biden put 8,500 troops on alert, some of which are assigned to the 40,000-strong NATO Response Force. This is more reassurance of NATO allies than deterrence of Russia.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings: "Most Russian officials still strive to maintain the old pattern:
rebuking the perfidious West for accusing 'peace-loving' Russia of
aggression for absolutely no reason (RIA Novosti, January 19, 2022). However, they increasingly contradict the words of their own war-fixated propagandists."
Even if Russia captures Kiev, why does that mean Russia controls the government? Couldn't the Ukrainian government flee westward to carry on the fight as the legitimate government?
Russia military options. Good Lord, he mentioned the Suwalki Gap and Narva!
Dog bites man: "Ukraine says it has arrested Russian-backed saboteurs who were plotting attacks in border regions with the aim of 'destabilising' the country."
Oh, FFS: "The combat system for the Navy’s newest and costliest warship, the $13 billion Gerald R. Ford, 'has yet to demonstrate that it can effectively' defend the aircraft carrier from anti-ship missiles and other threats, according to a new assessment by the Pentagon’s testing office." I wasn't happy with a perfectly working and under-budget ship.
I'm so old I remember when being mean to reporters was a war on freedom of the press. Restoring dignity--and respect for the press--to the White House.
Thoughts on America, Europeans, and the Russian threat to Ukraine.
Interesting, if true (via Instapundit): "Hacktivists in Belarus said on Monday they had infected the network of the country’s state-run railroad system with ransomware and would provide the decryption key only if Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko stopped aiding Russian troops ahead of a possible invasion of Ukraine." Did you expect this wouldn't happen?
Russia does not currently look like it is preparing for a large-scale war on conquest against Ukraine: "We believe that, if Putin and his team have not lost their ability to think rationally, they will not go for such a scenario." That's reassuring?
I do not have disdain for those who mask. I have disdain for the masked who insist I wear a mask. And I do get annoyed with the anti-maskers who show disdain, too. So far, despite being a rare unmasked in public places, I've yet to meet anyone who wants to be in the Fauci Militia. I had a box of N95s before the pandemic. Within the limitations of type, time, threat level, and user skill, masks provide friction for the virus. Once I thought that was decisive. Now, with shots, treatments, and less-lethal and more-transmissible variants, I do not. Related thoughts.
I had to bleach my eyes (via Insanity Wrap). But good Lord, that must be satire, right? Right?!
China has economic problems. How bad? This bad: "a major government debt management official was executed a year ago as the government declared the debt-crisis a matter of national security." Do China's fanboys still pine for "being China for a day"? Because being China 365 days per year causes problems. China may muddle through. But don't drone on about their purported planning brilliance.
If Russia gets bogged down in a war with Ukraine--let alone dragging NATO in--would China exploit Russia's mistake to reduce by a bit more that Century of Humiliation? Don't think they are allies. And getting into a war pushes Russia deep enough into vassal status to tempt China to end the facade.
I doubt this can do more than slow Iran down, but it may reduce the number of sorties needed to do real damage: "A shadowy battle between Israel and Iran has intensified since the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018."
Huh: "The Taliban have begun cracking down harder as women insist on their rights and as Western governments call for reforms."
My level of confidence in our senior military leadership's ability to deploy trained and effective military units is not helped: "Seven sailors were injured Monday when a F-35C Joint Strike Fighter jet suffered a 'landing mishap'" on one of our carriers in the Pacific. One of a "string of mishaps" for the air wing.
Iran's proxy war on the UAE continues: "U.S. forces at Al Dhafra Air Base, near Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), engaged two inbound missile threats with multiple Patriot interceptors[.]"
Turkey's outreach to Russia may not last. Well, no.
Making friends and influencing people in Africa to extend the Air Forces's range there.
I admit I didn't see the logic of this move to kill a non-Russian natural gas pipeline to Europe. Perhaps it makes more sense in the original Klingon. Tip to Instapundit.
Well obviously Putin is a stronger leader than Biden. Putin is also a lying bastard. The two opinions can stand side by side. Shame on Yahoo!News for spinning this as Republicans being pro-Putin. And yeah, I'd obviously rather have Russia as an ally to block China. But not at the price of throwing Ukraine under the bus.
Speaking of newly Third World hell-holes.
I'm not worried about war in Ukraine escalating to strategic nuclear warfare. Maybe growing up in the Cold War--and studying it--calms me. I don't think even a limited Russian war against Ukraine leads to war between NATO and Russia. This time. Although shit happens. And this problem on our end.
Will a Russian invasion of Ukraine freeze Europe? Good: "U.S. and European officials are coordinating with natural gas suppliers around the globe to cushion the impact if Russia were to cut off energy supplies in the conflict over Ukraine[.]" The Germans remain shocked that Unicorn scat isn't 25% of their energy supply by now.
The Left believes it can put into practice the Russian proverb that the tallest grass gets cut first. Shame on them.
The Houthi rebels in Yemen are retreating. Locals with outside backing can fight common enemies. Pity we didn't comprehend that in Afghanistan. Not that Yemen has a lot of promise as a functioning state.
Russia has revived the European need for NATO: "Putin may carry a big bazooka, but it seems to be aimed at his own foot." Russia is NATO's best recruiter. Putin has accelerated that. Strategery.
India: Act East in action. Another step to Fight East.
LOL: "Pentagon officials have confirmed that Biden placed 8,000 troops on high alert to protect the White House in case Fox News reporter Peter Doocy retaliates for Biden insulting him in a press conference yesterday." #Petersurrection. 😬 Tip to The Morning Briefing.
The road to Hell San Francisco is paved with progressive intentions.
I suspect nerd archeologists are channeling the former at the expense of the latter. Tip to The Morning Briefing.
Friendly Syrian forces recaptured that ISIL prison.
That's effed up. Chain of command confusion, anyone?
Oddly, the war on terror isn't over despite the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle. War on ISIL 2.0?
Let's prevent China from raising it from the sea floor, shall we? "A F-35C fighter jet that crashed onto the deck of the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson Monday subsequently fell into the South China Sea[.]" Oh, good.
That will help suppress Kaliningrad missiles while enabling sea-based air defenses for Baltic NATO states plus Sweden and Finland: "The U.S. Navy recently moved sailors aboard its newest base, a strategic installation in northern Poland that will support NATO’s European missile defense system."
Essentially, five carriers: "Two U.S carriers and two amphibious ships, along with their escorts and 26 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters drilled with a Japanese large deck warship last week in the Philippine Sea." Actually, 42. Well, 41 now.
We're used to Iran rattling sabres to jump the price of oil. In the end, is this what Russia is trying to do with all their threats against NATO and Ukraine? Is Russia closer to a poor state than to a modern power?
That's fun. Now do communists who actually organized anti-Iraq War and Occupy Wall Street protests!
I guess Australians will never know the identity or motivation of that "former soldier." But at least the story had a happy ending when the suicide vest went off while the bomber drove along. Tip to Treacher.
To be fair (via Treacher), he is science.
I see Justice Breyer just made a massive contribution to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Would the Democrats have the guts to delay confirmation until after the election? Although I don't see how his conditions to step down can possibly be met.
Earth's plate movement is caused by the gravity of the sun and moon, in addition to the molten core. Interesting. Wait. What? We're going to lose the Moon in a billion years? Where will it go?
Japan continues to rearm. Although the people shortage is getting in the way. The Japanese seem in no mood to share Xi's China Dream. Maybe those elder care robots will have reserve programming to fight.
This is puzzling: "The Israeli Commando Brigade has created a special field hospital unit that can be quickly flown in and set up wherever the brigade is operating[.]" Commandos raid. Not stay. Might the unit secure an Iranian reactor while it is safely disabled? Launched from the Arab side of the Gulf with the hospital there for casualties?
Wealth and not non-fossil fuels are key to protecting the environment. America's environment got amazingly better over the last 50 years even with massive fossil fuel use.
Putin has modernized the Russian military. But that is a small portion of the military. Which is a small fraction of the Soviet military. And the depth of the modernization is low. Don't expect the smart bombs to last long. Although I do expect their electronic warfare is good.
NATO apparently rejected Russia's demands. And despite the warmer ties, I think there is no way Turkey wants Russia to control the northern shore of the Black Sea.
Well that was a depressing take.
Cast a giant shadow: "More than 140 warships and support vessels, along with 60 aircraft and a total of 10,000 personnel, will participate in the drills, according to the Russian MoD." The story highlights the big ships but Russia's surface navy is closer to a well-armed coast guard.
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Voter-ID laws are not the ‘new Jim Crow’: The debate over US election laws is completely divorced from reality." The "reality-based" party, indeed. Tip to The Morning Briefing.
One problem that Russia has with blackmailing Germany with energy is that if Putin actually cuts off Germany, an already compliant and demilitarized Germany might rouse itself to rearm to resist Russia.
What are Russian Spetsnaz doing inside Ukraine? And isn't it risky pre-war given that the Ukrainians might kill or capture these special forces? Or is this Russian disinformation?
Some perspective on the Ukraine crisis. Putin is no chess master and NATO isn't fumbling. The author quotes Grant, which I heartily endorse! Putin doesn't impress me. Are we witnessing a "dead cat bounce" that leaves Russia a vassal of China? Will Putin take down Russia with him?
Russian military action is "imminent" but the logistics for a major war are not evident. We need to define "imminent" and/or "military action", eh? But the Olympics could delay Putin? Feh. Putin might enjoy upstaging his leash-holder a bit.
Submit Club. Wait until the CCP does Star Wars. Via Instapundit.
If Russia's threats to destroy Ukraine don't result in a deal Russia likes, Russia will take "retaliatory measures". #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
Iraqis we train and support continue to kill jihadis: "Nowadays, that fight is a law-enforcement operation as much as it is a military mission, requiring warrants and solid intelligence, but Iraqi commandos are still at the tip of the spear, led by special-operations forces that still have a very close relationship with the US special-operations community." That's victory. Contrast that with what we needlessly lost in Afghanistan. Can we salvage that kind of victory despite our defeat?
OJ Biden continues to look for the real killer horse-riding, migrant-whipping border agents. Tip to Treacher.
Layers and layers of fact checkers backing up college-educated professional journalism. Oops. Tip to Treacher.
Maybe Biden should nominate Kamala Harris as Secretary General of the United Nations General Assembly. That gets her out of his administration and Democratic politics. And quite possibly destroys the UN. Win-win.
The punishments will continue until morale improves.
The "Pest and Slightest." Tip to Instapundit.
Western athletes should be ashamed to go to the Chinese Olympics. Their names should be worthless for endorsement deals.
Germany sends a warship to the Pacific, knowing it will never fight China. But with Russia threatening Ukraine, Germany reluctantly sends only some helmets to Ukraine. What is wrong with Germany?
Ukraine should just give up on getting Russian-occupied Donbas back. Send Russia the deed and a big bill for the sale. Good riddance. Teach people that if they pine for Russian control they just might have to endure it. And send Russia the rent bill for Crimea, too. Along with hefty late payment penalties piling up over the last 8 years.
China's climate change promises were all about hobbling the West economically, apparently.
Gosh, I wonder if that will expand the black market for firearms? Tip to Instapundit.
There are lots of criticisms of Biden on Ukraine. Yes, he flubbed in his press conference. But that's insignificant as a "green light." Sure, letting the Nordstream II pipeline go through was a big mistake that screws Ukraine. And energy policies are a gift to Russia, in general. But mostly, America's reactions to Russia's Ukraine threats have been--broadly--fine. I'd like more equipment for Ukraine. But I don't know if Ukraine's military could absorb a lot quickly. Most of my crisis worries are about what Putin may do--and how Biden will react to that.
Imperialism with Chinese characteristics.
The 8,500 American troops alerted for possible movement to eastern Europe are mostly light units. This is symbolic and not a real force to fight Russian heavy armor. What we really need to do is have a robust REFORPOL.
America's mine sweeping capacity is dangerously insufficient.
It is true that NATO does not have an "open door" policy. But Russia must not be the door man.
This is no historical analogy: "This history shows we did not expand NATO much when it was focused on the core mission of deterrence — and maybe that should be a valuable guideline for today, too." Back in the Cold War, NATO could not expand much more because the USSR controlled the states that joined NATO in large numbers after the collapse of the USSR.
This complaint is silly. Look, NATO has a veto because the 8,500 American troops are earmarked for a NATO force. And any American deployment to another sovereign country needs their permission, at least.
Exposing Russian disinformation is a start. But it's a big job.
Honestly, I think Russia's exercises in Belarus are more about practicing an attack through the Suwalki Gap and Lithuania some time in the future than they are a preparation for an imminent invasion of Ukraine. The heavy air defense aspect is unneeded for Ukraine.
When the government won't protect people from criminals (via Instapundit), people will protect themselves. And when government won't prosecute the criminals, I wonder what armed people will do?
I say Boston should enjoy their woke snow-covered streets: "Never heard of snow-plow equity? The 'e' word gives it all away. Equity – in this case, that means bicycle lanes should get plowed before … pick any major thoroughfare." Good luck if you call 9-1-1! FFS, these people are morons. Tip to Instapundit.
Wow. "Dissent on foreign policy is the highest form of patriotism" died so fast I didn't even get a chance to notice! I find the Democrats' sudden transformation more astounding.
Looking through thousands of straws: Open source intelligence at crowd-sourcing scale.
Great. Yet another thing more important to our Pentagon than victory: "In his most sweeping statement on the issue to date, Mr. Austin set in motion a series of measures that military officials say are intended to change how commanders in the field think about their jobs, fostering a culture in which they view preventing civilian harm as a core part of their missions." We are careful. But now we have another substitute for victory. This will be battlefield analysis paralysis.
I'm not shocked: "The Army’s new lightweight infantry assault buggy is cramped as hell, too small to haul supplies, and 'not operationally effective for employment in combat and [engagement, security cooperation and deterrence] missions against a near-peer threat[.]'" We either have light infantry or don't. Stop pretending we can have light infantry without the "walking" part.
The Russian claim NATO is finally willing to discuss their concerns: "Lavrov noted Friday that the U.S. suggested the two sides could talk about limits on the deployment of intermediate-range missiles, restrictions on military drills and rules to prevent accidents between warships and aircraft." But Russia is the side deploying theater nuclear missiles, lying about massive drills, and acting unsafe at sea and in the air.
Coup in Burkina Faso. It won't make things better.
Putin and the Iranian mullahs smile.
Putin says the West is ignoring Russian security concerns. Well frankly, Russia's security concerns in the west are paranoid nonsense with no logical endpoint. Meanwhile, China rises in Russia's Far East.
Space war: "A Chinese satellite was observed grabbing another satellite and pulling it out of its normal geosynchronous orbit[.]" We can always buy one part of Elon Musk's satellite cloud and ram the Chinese grabbing satellite. Tip to Instapundit.
Democrats are confused. Supreme Court justices aren't supposed to represent specific racial, ethnic, or gender groups. Justices are supposed to represent the Constitution. I'm glad I could clear that up.
Uh oh. Just a reminder. Willow didn't kill herself--nine times. That will lose the last demographic Biden retains--crazy cat ladies. Tip to Treacher.
So that's how the memory hole works. Well, when a Democrat is president. Otherwise, we'd need a 24/7 national conversation on "lying America into war."
Huh (via Instapundit): "Top Chinese scientist working in Hypersonic program flees China with critical secrets[.]" I hope the program details tell us if China's program is a threat to our home ports.
The vote wasn't rigged--oh no!--but the voting system was unconstitutional. We'll see if the ruling stands on appeal.
The Canadian left believes that Canadian truckers protesting harsh state controls are the fascists. Huh. Well, they did reelect a prime minister who wore black face. Their judgment might be poor, eh?
Just as in 2020 before the election, Democrats are claiming the upcoming election will be rigged against them. I'm sensing a pattern. Tip to Instapundit.
I've noticed a pattern. When America has disputes with countries, we're told enemies are just friends we haven't made yet. And also, what did we do to deserve their hate? When Russia creates disputes with neighbors, we're told their worries are justified because in the 20th, 19th, and 18th centuries, they were invaded from the west. And don't get me started on the Crusades--when that was a counterattack against the original Islamic conquest of Christian lands.
Experience, competence, and no mean tweets.
Regime change success story: "Yet Panama is one of Latin America’s most striking political and economic success stories of the past three decades. Not only has it remained a stable democracy, but it has also been the region’s fastest-growing economy and today ranks among its most developed countries." It all depends on who invades you.
The latest German Question. Be part of the West and defend it, I say.
Xi Jinping has been very quiet. Is he worried about resistance within the CCP to his rule? Uh oh.
Hmmm. I come back to the question of whether the high drama of Putin's threat to Ukraine is for the purpose of making NATO breathe a sigh of relief when he "only" annexes Russian-occupied Donbas. And maybe Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia, while he's at it.
Isn't this like an African-American Auxiliary of the KKK? "A woman who once lived in Kansas has been arrested after federal prosecutors charged her with joining the Islamic State group and leading an all-female battalion of AK-47 wielding militants."
If it was a perfect phone call, wouldn't we have seen it already? On the bright side, our bureaucrats no longer leak such things! Wow. Am I an optimist, or what?
It is true that Russia's troops on Ukraine's borders are too few for a pacification campaign if Russia takes a lot of territory. But Putin's National Guard--hundreds of thousands strong--could be called in for that behind the spearheads. I still doubt that is the plan. But the option is there.
Ukrainians, already used to the subliminal war that Russia has been waging since invading in 2014, don't seem concerned that Russia will invade. But given what Ukrainians are used to, do they assume Russia will escalate that low-level fight in some way?
Getting into space. I remember watching Apollo launches live on TV. I hoped we'd be at this point many decades ago.
Could a new engine one day increase the F-35A and F-35C range by 25%?
Modeling the Marines' reshaping effort like the Army did after Vietnam by addressing doctrine, equipment, and people is fine. But the Army focused on one objective: beating a Soviet-style army. The Marines have the job of beating the Chinese navy now. But that Pacific mission isn't the Marine mission in Europe or Africa, which remains closer to traditional amphibious capabilities. Don't the Marines need two lines of effort?
To repeat, I would not send American troops to fight for Ukraine. But if Ukrainians are willing to fight and die to protect Ukraine from Russia, I say we give Ukraine the equipment and intelligence needed to kill Russian soldiers. Maybe lend-lease 2.0 is in order.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his administration to consider an apparent new system to ban 'toxic' internet content, although details were not released." All Russian Internet media immediately went dark after the announcement.
