Not the fiscal emergency we were told we were in. Yet even more money must be spent to cope with the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic?
Say, here's a candidate for senior officer purging.
The Biden administration, senior military leaders, and Congress failed us on Afghanistan. But don't hold your breath for consequences: "What is likely to happen here is that the White House will move on. Congress will give up. The generals will keep their jobs."
A new B-52 engine will extend the bomber's lifespan to a century. Pre-computer aided design, the plane was totally over-engineered for structural and component soundness.
Lithuania wants American troops permanently based in their country and built a base to house them. If it helps defend the Suwalki Gap, I'm fine with that.
Yet another Trump policy that Biden feels the need to reverse: "The Department of Energy has proposed a regulatory change reversing a
Trump measure that allowed more powerful showers. The language used to
defend the action invokes climate change as well as water conservation
as justifications." When I had plumbing work in my bathrooms I hung on to the old pre-1992 shower heads that provide a firehose of water if I want it. I didn't want to have anything less with a new one. I don't even care if I need that kind of volume. But remember, Biden was helpless, he says, to avoid retreating from Afghanistan because of Trump. And losing the war was totally the right decision, Biden said, too. Which mirrors what his supporters on the shower heads say: "Supporters of the Biden proposal, including an army of efficiency
activists, argue that very few people actually want showers blasting
more than 2.5 gallons per minute. But they also argue that if Trump's
change is allowed to stand, it would lead to dangerous increases in
water use. " Got it. Nobody wants them but if they exist everybody will use them and destroy the planet. Biden and his supporters say a lot of things. One more thing on how existing businesses benefit from regulations: The companies that make showerheads don't want more powerful showerheads because they don't make them, don't want to invest the money to make them, and don't want competition from new companies that might make them.
The Russians and Chinese are throwing elbows on and above the seas. What could possibly go wrong?
Part of the Big Lie. To repeat myself:
The massive Democratic "infrastructure" bill subsidizes illegal immigrants. It also opens the program to fraud. Via Instapundit.
Are the Abraham Accords going to expand notwithstanding the Biden administration's reflexive rejection of any Trump initiative? "Judging by the buzz in the Israeli corridors of power, the answer is “yes.” Apparently, other countries are on the fence, one foot there, one foot here, trying to decide in which direction to jump. Are we seeing a maturation of the normalization process and the future expansion of the circle of peace around Israel, or simply a nonbinding flirtation with few prospects? Hard to say at this point."
To be fair, this is completely normal for this crew: "Biden promised a return to normalcy; instead, the country’s in chaos
— with little hope our clueless leader can turn anything around any time
soon." But no mean tweets!
More laws and regulations always benefit the wealthy who pay to lobby for loopholes and who pay armies of people to scour the legal landscape for loopholes to pay less in taxes. It all seems perfectly legal. But it promotes a culture of corruption. And it is shady, too, as the Pandora Papers show. No politicians are in America, at least, in this data project. But American entities are part of the loopholes. As I've often said, what is most shocking isn't what some of our elites to that is illegal, but what is perfectly legal. Complexity is an advantage for the wealthy and powerful. Tip to Instapundit.
Afghanistan isn't good terrorist real estate? "Even if the Taliban wanted to serve as a safe haven, there’s no reason to think terrorists would want to take up the offer." Yes, I know that a lot of training for 9/11 was done in Germany and America. But Afghanistan was the home base of al Qaeda which pulled off the most spectacular terrorist attack in history. How's that for a reason to seek refuge in Afghanistan? Sometimes it hurts to read the idiocy that tries to put lipstick and a wig on the pig of our Afghanistan skedaddle debacle.
Sometimes the editing on Wikipedia is wokefully moronic: "The Cat in the Hat is a cat sexually attracted to children." Good grief, people. Get a life. How long will the edit last?
The Russia-China alliance is overblown as a relationship. It is a client-vassal relationship. And I have doubts about Russia's nuclear arsenal reliability. But America's nuclear arsenal is desperately in need of modernization and expansion. Let's not tempt China or Russia to think we are toothless.
Is the Xi Jinping Flu Covid-19 pandemic a crisis or a tool to use or not use to advance pre-pandemic policy objectives: "While overseas travellers from 33 countries will be permitted entry if they show proof of vaccination and test negative to the virus, Democrats last week voted to block measures which would ensure illegal immigrants were tested." Tip to Instapundit.
Europe is suffering under energy shortages as it increases its reliance on Russian exports. Russia is determined to punish Ukraine for resisting Russia, and Europe be damned: "To be clear, there is no shortage of transit capacity. While the Kremlin
is championing Nord Stream 2 as a solution to Europe’s energy problems,
roughly twice as much gas can be shipped from Russia to the EU through
Ukraine. Yet Ukraine’s network sits empty while Europe cannot get enough
gas." Will Europeans cave in to Russia's blackmail and throw Ukraine under the Russian bus? And if they do, do the Europeans think they are so special that Russia won't freeze Europeans during a winter for other objectives? Really?
Alyssa Milano said, "This is the most dangerous time to be a woman in America." No doubt. Democrats control the White House and Congress,along with Hollywood and most of the news media. Lord knows what they'll ef up next.
The annoying cranks are in charge: "I think that, fundamentally, this is a bunch of very privileged people, largely white and middle class, who have got too much time on their hands and whose lives are too easy. They are looking for problems." And they find them, whether made up or defining "micro" problems to be real problems. Screw these nutballs. I'm tired of their mental health issues being my problem. Tip to Instapundit.
While I am cited in this article, my point in the article was absolutely not that China is incapable of invading Taiwan because of a lack of specialized amphibious vessels. The citation was just to quantify Taiwanese ground forces.
The Biden administration position is clear: It is in favor of harassing Democratic senators while they are in bathrooms if you believe in your cause enough. Noted.
Activists in Michigan have long been trying to shut down this pipeline. Will Biden screw Canada again over a pipeline to satisfy domestic Green loons? "Canada on Monday formally invoked a 1977 treaty with the United States to request bilateral negotiations over Enbridge Inc's Line 5, escalating a long-running dispute over one of Canada's major oil export pipelines."
About that Serbia-Kosovo border kerfuffle.
Suicide drones for destroying anti-aircraft systems enter India's arsenal.
So far the Taliban rulers have not been recognized as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, except by the usual suspects. Will the existence of a government-in-exile lead America to circle back on the war? After Americans and others escape from Afghanistan, of course.
Disaster struck America as Facebook's worldwide blackout ended. So yeah, LOL.
The United States is alarmed at Iran's nuclear progress, but won't offer sanctions relief to get the talks going. I don't think that lack of a concession is a big deal. Ultimately the Iranians know Biden's people want to recapture the magic of the original deal. That deal's outline was evident long before the actual deal: "The Iranians will pretend not to have a nuclear weapons program; and we will pretend to believe them." Have a super sparkly day.
The Abrams tanks hangs on to dominate battlefields due to many improvements over the decades. Various efforts to replace the M-1 with a magical vehicle that combines lethality, protection, and strategic mobility liter the procurement battlefields. So I count us lucky the Abrams is a good basic design tested in wars. I worry there are limits to how much an old platform can be updated. But it seems to happen. And I worry about defending against top-attack weapons. Progress on that protection seems slow to me.
More on the Navy testing of unmanned surface vessels in the Persian Gulf. Iran's many threats will be a good test environment.
So will the wok-edemic panic mongers accuse these people of being knuckle-dragging Science! deniers, too? "'Trust in the CDC and FDA has decreased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic among health care professionals,' WebMD/Medscape noted in June. 'Out of nearly 2,000 U.S. nurses surveyed on Medscape (WebMD’s sister site for health care professionals) between May 25 and June 3, 77% said their trust in the CDC has decreased since the start of the pandemic, and 51% said their trust in the FDA has decreased. Similarly, out of nearly 450 U.S. doctors surveyed in the same time period, 77% said their trust in the CDC has decreased and 48% said their trust in the FDA has decreased.'"
I will never defend Trump's spending levels. But good Lord, Biden makes Trump look positively frugal.
This article argues for using Crete as a bastion to block the Russians in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. I'm good with that. But Russia in not much of a threat in the Mediterranean Sea. My agreement with using Crete is more about losing Turkey as a NATO ally rather than anything Russia can do absent that disaster. And NATO should do nothing to elevate the European Union in defense matters.
I honestly don't care that Playboy magazine put a man on the cover. I think it is stupid. But I'm not angry or disturbed. I just don't care. I increasingly don't care if people want to do stupid things to themselves as long as they leave me alone.
We've been told for decades that racial diversity is good. It isn't inherently bad, of course. But I'm not sure I can be convinced that such diversity alone is more important than equality under the law, acceptance, and tolerance of all races. But if racial diversity is intrinsically beneficial as the woke-educational complex asserts, how do you justify separating diversity advocacy participants by race? "The University of Colorado at Boulder is hosting monthly 'BIPOC Identity' and 'White Ally' meetups this semester that separate attendees based on race." Doesn't separating the races deny every race the benefits of that diversity? Tip to Instapundit.
Is it my imagination or are analysts on the issue of China invading Taiwan divided into two camps? Those who think it is impossible for China to carry out an amphibious invasion. And those who think it is impossible for Taiwan to resist China's overwhelming might. Yet both camps are united in their conclusion that America should do nothing to help Taiwan. Odd, that is. I think China can invade Taiwan. But I think Taiwan can win with help as long as it drives the invaders into the sea, as I warned in Military Review. And with enough military capabilities arrayed in its defense, Taiwan can deter China from invading. But keep in mind that deterring China isn't a static calculation. Fifteen years ago, apparently 21,000 KIA would have deterred China from invading. But events can change what is considered acceptable. Is it lower now with a shrinking and aging population coming? Is it higher because China has a mid-century deadline for greatness? Could the cap come off if there is an internal revolution or a faltering economy? It is safer to focus goals on defeating China so their calculations on what they would pay don't determine Taiwan's survival.
The Air Force activated its first F-35A squadron in Europe, which will receive its first fighters later this year: "The 495th Fighter Squadron, which is part of the 48th Fighter Wing and also known as the Valkyries, was reactivated at the RAF Lakenheath base in England on Friday morning, the Air Force said in a press release."
The French are furious at losing the Australia submarine contract and want to demonstrate they are a reliable ally in the Indo-Pacific region. France should offer to shift the conventional submarine contract to assist Taiwan in building conventional subs more quickly than they could otherwise? Money and a demonstration of their serious commitment to resisting Chinese threats in one action. Does France have the nerve to step on China's toes in such a matter? Perhaps the French senators vising Taiwan will raise that issue, eh? It has been three decades since France sold Taiwan weapons. A reliable ally would risk China's ire. Or do the French just want to bitch?
Macron wants to be the figurative emperor of Europe through the European Union. So if trying to soothe France's ruffled feathers over the Australia SSN deal sticks to this standard of not undermining NATO, I'm fine with our talks with France: "Blinken told Macron that Washington was 'certainly supportive of European defence and security initiatives' that can increase capabilities but do not undermine the NATO alliance, a senior U.S. State Department official said." Just keep saying that and don't budge.
Unclear on cause and effect. Tip to Insanity Wrap.
Merrick Garland is a fanatic and thank God he isn't on the Supreme Court. But he'll do a lot of damage as attorney general and wreck public trust in our federal government in the process. But Antifa and BLM violence is ignored. Remember, he was dressed up and sold as a moderate nominee for the Supreme Court in 2016. He is no moderate.
Dominoes? "Signs of stress in China’s property sector are spreading, as lower-rated developers face a surge in bond yields to a decade high." China could be forced to abandon its ability to project a facade of relentless success. This doesn't mean the Chinese Communist Party is threatened. But if its control is shaken by an economic crisis that harms large numbers of middle class people who lose life--or generational--savings put into property, what will the CCP do? Focus inward to suppress disorder and dissent? Or lash out abroad to rally the people around a CCP at war? Or will China struggle through with piecemeal policy responses that ride out the storm into a more modest China dream and status? I have no idea.
Remember that any American accommodation with Iran, including a nuclear deal, strengthens Iran's ability to infiltrate and undermine Iraq to create a new Lebanon with Iran-controlled proxy militias exercising veto power on government actions: "Among the candidates running in Iraq’s general elections this week is a leader in one of the country's most hard-line and powerful militias with close ties to Iran who once battled U.S. troops."
So when did the FBI become leftist storm troopers? Antifa wasn't enough muscle?
Those who speak this way are "people experiencing stupidity". Tip to PJ Media.
Cloth masks are everywhere despite the obvious fact that they are less effective than surgical masks. Are cloth masks the Blue equivalent of MAGA hats? Article and observation from Instapundit.
Oh good, highly processed silicon is in short supply now. I need the chip shortage to end.
It it is seen like Big Brother because it absolutely is Big Brother! "Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is defending a Biden administration proposal that would require banks to report data to the Internal Revenue Service on transactions over $600, calling the collection of information “routine,” after taking heat for the idea that is widely seen as an unprecedented invasion of privacy." What is wrong with this administration? And they still say Trump was a threat to our freedoms and liberty? Seriously? Via Instapundit.
There is no climate emergency. And if it is an emergency, why aren't Greens frantically advocating for nuclear power?
How far away are woke commissars to directly oversee the troops after this step? "All Defense Department personnel are now subject to “continuous vetting”
designed to spot extremists and other insider threats, with
surveillance of their public social-media postings likely coming soon,
Pentagon officials said Tuesday." But I bet it will never be used to identify jihadi sympathizers. As I've noted:
Malaysia issued a sternly worded note to the Chinese over sending ships into Malaysian economic zone: "'The presence and activities of these vessels are inconsistent with Malaysia’s Exclusive Economic Zone Act 1984, as well as the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos),' the statement said." China care little about words. Malaysia had best be capable of ejecting those ships--or imposing a cost as they go down fighting. Malaysia is moving toward backing their words with force. Indonesia is also deploying military units to defend its territorial integrity in the face of Chinese claims.
Is America sleepwalking towards war with China? I doubt it.Unless "sleepwalking" means "inviting war by showing weakness". But why is the responsibility on America? Why not ask if China is sleepwalking towards war war with America? I recently also saw an article saying America had to avoid war with China over Taiwan at all costs. This focus on America as the only responsible power invites China to commit aggression secure that China has no role in avoiding war because it is up to America to back down no matter what.
I believe I mentioned a lot of weapons that the Taliban captured would make it to others because of corruption: "With the Taliban in power, more American weapons and military accessories are now being openly sold in shops by Afghan gun dealers who paid government soldiers and Taliban fighters for guns, ammunition and other matériel, according to weapons dealers in Kandahar Province in southern Afghanistan." There will be collateral damage affecting the Taliban and Pakistan. Enjoy.
Putin is simply demonstrating that his power to give is matched by his power to take: "Natural-gas futures pulled back sharply Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin said the country would boost supplies to Europe, which is bearing the brunt of a global energy crunch, and help stabilize the market." Do the Europeans not understand that having an on/off switch for their energy needs in Putin's hands leaves Europe at Putin's mercy? Should Europeans trust Putin with that power?
It really seems like our HUMINT capacity has a long record of sucking: "Top American counterintelligence officials warned every CIA station and base around the world last week about troubling numbers of informants recruited from other countries to spy for the United States being captured or killed, people familiar with the matter said."
Estonia is arming up: "Estonia is developing its defense capacities in response to Russia’s actions in the region, with multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), air defense systems, coastal missile defense systems as well as unmanned and cyber defense capabilities ranking high in its acquisition plans, according to Estonian Defense Minister Kalle Laanet." But if Estonia doesn't rule out fighters, it should certainly rule out basing them in easily-overrun Estonia. Estonian fighters should be based in Sweden or Poland and rotate into Estonian bases the way other NATO fighters operate.
It looks like Congressional Democrats will "reduce" the price tag of the massive "infrastructure" bill not by cutting programs but largely by exploiting the Congressional accounting rules to reduce the sticker price. But the costs of the programs won't change much, if at all. Remember, the rules for tallying the costs have a ten-year horizon. And one method of hiding costs is to start taxing immediately while starting the program late in the ten-year window. It looks "free" until both programs and revenue are in effect at the same time. Then it costs us big time going forward. And that's on top of denying the private sector money to grow the economy to trust the government to do a better job with the same money.
It is interesting that right after someone seemingly in New Taipei, Taiwan used a Chinese-made Xiaomi Mi A1 phone to view my speculation about China's aerial show of force against Taiwan that I was sent a virus-infected email from the address, "service@manufacture.com.tw", which is a B2B company on Taiwan providing internet-based services to Chinese and Taiwanese companies. Naughty, naughty. Someone seemingly from the mainland living in a free country but oblivious to their rare privilege for someone from China is touchy. Not that I'd ever open an email from an unknown sender without taking tremendous precautions. But interesting. And no, making the subject line "Hot Taiwanese women are looking for you!" still wouldn't get me to let down my guard. Well, probably not. But officially, no.
Tar and feathers for the teacher. Massive lawsuit against the school administrators. It takes a village to scar a child. Maybe if state funding for education followed the child instead of the school, some of the teachers wouldn't be so awful. And also, the tar, feathers, and civil lawsuits.
This would be a start: "Military tensions with China are at their worst in more than 40 years, Taiwan's defence minister said on Wednesday, promoting a new arms spending package to lawmakers days after record numbers of Chinese aircraft flew into the island's air defence zone." Taiwan needs to spend much more.
The "whistleblower" who promotes Democratic Party supremacy. It's a sham hearing with the legislative initiative "in response" likely already written.
Did the Chinese Communist Party know about the Xi Jinping Covid-19 virus months before the CCP announced the first case? "The Chinese province that was the initial epicenter of the Covid-19 outbreak made significant purchases of equipment used to test for infectious diseases months before Beijing notified international authorities of the emergence of a new coronavirus, according to research by a cybersecurity company." It isn't a slam dunk case. But the charge is hardly inconsistent with the CCP's behavior. This bears watching. I would laugh very hard if countries that took out loans for Chinese Belt and Road projects eventually agreed with this charge and then canceled their debts to China for pandemic compensation. Tip to Instapundit.
After decades of potential suppliers succumbing to Chinese pressure to cut off Taiwan, Taiwan makes its own weapons. Like air defense systems: "The new Taiwan air defense system is called Arrow Crossbow and is a mobile system equipped with a radar, a 40mm autocannon and a ground launched version of the Taiwanese Sky Sword radar guided air-to-air missile. The version is comparable to the American AMRAAM missile, which has been used for an air defense system since the 1990s." Will France resume selling weapons to Taiwan to demonstrate how good of an ally it is in the Indo-Pacific?
An allied flotilla challenged China's claims to the South China Sea: "A British aircraft carrier has led warships from Britain, America, Canada, The Netherlands, Japan and New Zealand into the disputed South China Sea to assert freedom of navigation rights in the face of Chinese claims on the region."
Japan is increasingly able and willing to fight China to defend Taiwan.
When the pandemic began I figured we'd go back to normal for office work when it is over. Oddly enough, I might have been wrong: "Driven partly by fear of infection, and by the liberating rise of remote work, Americans have been increasingly freed from locational constraints. Work continues apace in suburbs and particularly in sprawling exurbs that surround core cities, while the largest downtowns (central business districts, or CBDs) increasingly resemble ghost towns." Which would actually be pretty funny. Democrats--longtime urban center fetishists--have been the most vocal and enthusiastic lockdown proponents. But they might be reducing the power of cities where their political and economic power is concentrated.
It's pretty depressing that Lenin scholarship Moscow State University graduate Salue Omarova couldn't get a government position in Russia or China--but can be in the Biden administration. Will the Senate really approve her nomination to be in charge of our banks--which she wants to eliminate? If Republicans can't stop her, they should at least make sure Vice President Harris has to cast the deciding vote. Tip to Instapundit.
Firepower from over the horizon works better with a forward observer over the ridge: "Over the course of five days in 2001, [Joe O'Keefe,] the Air Force combat controller called in hundreds of airstrikes and 688,000 pounds (344 tons) of bombs on a valley in Afghanistan filled with Al Qaeda fighters." Surrounded and in a target-rich environment, with training, coolness, and eager and well-trained pilots with lots of ordnance above, a lot of good jihadis were made that day. But the skedaddle debacle ended our ability to turn bad jihadis into good jihadis in the numbers needed to cool their devotion to dying (and killing) for Allah.
I never assumed China's rise to supplant America was inevitable. And if China did manage that, I did not assume China could hold the position. Their rise would have an end point. Now the question of what do we do when China's rise falters, is being asked: "Western corporate leaders and finance ministers reliant on Chinese
growth would need to find a way to survive without it. Western
strategists expecting a new Asian superpower would have to contemplate
the prospect of a stagnating one. A Western order seemingly threatened
by Chinese aggression and overconfidence might find that Chinese
insecurity and instability pose the greater risk. Certainly, these are
only possibilities. But possibilities surely momentous enough to warrant
the question: 'What if?'" The China threat doesn't end if China falters, of course. Japan is arming up in the face of Chinese threats despite having its own spectacular rise falter decades ago. So China will still have a lot more military and economic power than it did before it unleashed state-controlled capitalism to recover from the deep trough of Maoist self-destruction. And China has the advantage of being close to the battlefields while America is far away.
Hurry up and weight: "The U.S. Army is moving closer toward fielding its first Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles, also known as the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon, with the recent delivery of prototype trailer-mounted launchers, as well as other key components of the complete weapon system." Sure, the missile is a challenge to the Air Force by putting long-range and responsive firepower right in the hands of the Army. But it also helps the Air Force carry out its mission of supporting Army troops with close air support. Dark Eagle will be able to target enemy ground-based air defenses to open the path for Air Force strikes. Not everything is stealthy, after all.
Iran is unhappy with Azerbaijan: "Iran has 'serious concerns' about Israel’s presence in the Caucasus, as tensions mount between Iran and Azerbaijan over Baku’s ties with Israel, a major arms supplier." I've long viewed Azerbaijan as a potential staging area for an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Or at least a place where damaged or fuel-short Israeli planes could land during such a campaign. And besides, Iran thinks it should own huge chunks of Azerbaijan.
I certainly did my best to argue for staying, but this is small comfort so soon: "One month after the U.S. military wrapped up its frantic departure from Afghanistan amid a Taliban takeover, most Americans do not think withdrawing all forces was the right course of action, Quinnipiac revealed in a Wednesday poll — even though the majority of U.S. adults supported winding down the two-decade-long war in Afghanistan last month." To be fair to public opinion before the skedaddle debacle, people probably thought that someone other than the Fuck-Up Fairy would carry out the withdrawal without losing the war.
This description of Biden's approval of Russia's Nordstream 2 gas pipeline to Germany is dumbfounding: "The Obama and Trump administrations galvanized bipartisan opinion against the pipeline and President Joe Biden too announced sanctions against companies involved in the project, but these were waived in May in what was seen as an attempt by the U.S. to rebuild ties with Germany." It is amazing that the natural inclination of the Biden administration was that strained ties with Germany were America's fault that required our concession! We have a problem and it is Germany's refusal to be a contributor to NATO security.
Oh, FFS: "The Navy’s approach to China is to deter, not to fight a war, Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro told Naval Academy midshipmen on Tuesday night." Far be it for me to step on the secretary's stab at nuance, but it should be obvious to him that the ability to deter China is reliant on the ability to fight and defeat China in a war.
Well, this limitation on access to public accommodations should certainly have some ... interesting ... racial and ethnic aspects, no? "ABC7 reports that Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti signed a city ordinance requiring all people within the city of Los Angeles 'to show proof of full COVID-19 vaccination before entering indoor restaurants, bars, gyms, shopping centers, entertainment venues, and personal care establishments.'"
Perhaps our Goddamn Department of Justice could get interested in this, instead of justifiably angry parents of school children? Tip to Instapundit.
Russia is the largest debtor of China: "Russian economists point out that this debt is a sign of how large a portion of the Russian economy China controls. This is especially true in the Russian Far East, which largely consists of territory taken from China in the mid-19th century by a Czarist government using military threats. China has never renounced their claims on these lost territories and massive Chinese investments in these disputed territories is turning this part of Russia into a Chinese colony." I assumed America is the largest debtor of China, so this news surprised me.
Well yes, the F-117 was an attack plane and not a fighter despite the "F" designation.
One of our few Seawolf subs was damaged in a collision in the South China Sea. Hmmm. The boats are mostly intelligence-gathering vessels. The Chinese are trying to use the accident as an excuse to fortify their claims to control the South China Sea by pretending that this is an issue of nuclear reactor safety. Nice try. Thank you for playing.
Russia likes to boast about its power. Which is a lot of BS when it comes to wonder weapons. In addition, their conventional military has limited capacity to wage major war. And it is BS when it comes to Russia's ability to sustain a major fight: "Families of conscripts are unhappy with conscription in general and get agitated if their sons are sent overseas and even more angry, and outspoken locally and on the Internet, if their conscript son is wounded or killed overseas." Russia has an undeserved reputation based on World War II for being willing to endure endless casualties to win.
China will have the ability to invade Taiwan by 2025? I think China can do it now if the casualties don't bother them. And to the Taiwanese defense minister's credit, he didn't say what so many Western analysts claim. He said: "'By 2025, China will bring the cost and attrition to its lowest. It has
the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take
many other things into consideration,' he said without elaborating." Yes. China can invade. But the outcome is too uncertain for them to try. The Taiwanese are going to spend money adding long-range missiles and anti-ship missiles. Which I assume is intended to increase attrition for Chinese forces and restore deterrence. What frustrates me with Western claims of looming Chinese capabilities to invade is the lack of specificity. What, pray tell, is China going to build in the next X years that will allow them to invade if China can't now? Is China going to build scores of large amphibious ships in four years? Because that current deficiency is often cited as the reason China "can't" invade. I think those assessments of future capacity to invade are whistling past today's graveyard. I'm glad Taiwan is getting a sense of urgency.
Operation Enduring Freedom in the Philippines. A good reminder of the front that succeeded out of the spotlight and is easily forgotten.
Of course the Biden administration is focusing on the so-called "climate crisis". Measuring the results of their focus lies decades or centuries in the future. Which is great for them considering focusing on inflation, illegal immigration, China, jihadi terrorists, employment, the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic, crime, and energy production leaves them open to being judged failures next year or the year after.
One thing that I think is a major metric of Chinese evaluation of their Taiwan invasion capability is how fast they can get ashore and get a ceasefire. Because I think that China wants to end the fighting before America intervenes in force. People forget that China needs to defeat Taiwan to conquer Taiwan. China does not need to defeat America. China needs to delay America long enough to defeat Taiwan. China would like the ceasefire after capturing Taipei. But they'd settle for a ceasefire after securing a bridgehead in order to prepare for the next round and ultimate victory. Stopping China from getting ashore is certainly ideal. But how does Taiwan drive the invaders into the sea if that fails? I explored that in Military Review a year ago.
The problem was certainly arose quickly once Biden took charge: "A global energy crunch caused by weather and a resurgence in demand is getting worse, stirring alarm ahead of the winter, when more energy is needed to light and heat homes. Governments around the world are trying to limit the impact on consumers, but acknowledge they may not be able to prevent bills spiking." Maybe this analysis is true about the multiple causes that just came out of friggin' nothing. But the media routinely avoids blaming Democrats for problems Democrats create. The rule is if Republicans fail, Republicans are at fault; but if Democrats fail, America is at fault. Tip to Instapundit.
Applying the full weight of federal power to crush ... concerned parents? Shame.
Rewarding ignorant freshmen only reinforces their ignorance of their ignorance. But the armies of administrators in our universities seem eager to encourage that. Skills that allowed that professor to survive the Cultural Revolution failed him in the face of the Woke Red Guards on campus.
Well this is embarrassing. For some reason I remembered the title of an old Military Review article of mine, "The Path to the Future Army" (pp. 91-93) as "The Path of the Future Army" in a number of posts. Oops. After editing a couple of them I stopped and decided to hopefully direct hits here to find the right name and a link. Sadly, my link to the version as submitted which avoids some garbled portions from editing did not survive the death of my old Geocities site.
Dave Chapelle's last Netflix comedy special was funny. And in the end it was a touching tribute to the humanity of individual transgender people, even as it criticized the movement. Remember, rejecting the crazy utterances of the craziest members of a group is not the same as rejecting all members of that group.
More lockdown collateral damage: "Stringent lockdown measures imposed in the spring of 2020 led to a dramatic drop in vaccinations among both children and adults, according to a new study led by Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP)." Tip to Instapundit.
The North Korean people sure do endure a lot without rising up and shooting their pampered ruling class: "North Korea's food situation remains perilous according to analysts and a
United Nations expert who raised doubts this week about its harvest,
and there are signs that it is receiving large shipments of humanitarian
aid from China." But at least China is paying to prop up its little pet psycho regime instead of America, Japan, and South Korea who are the targets of North Korea.
I don't see this as Turkey falling into Russia's orbit as much as I see hedging by Erdogan: "Challenging Western sanctions, NATO ally Turkey has pledged to further its defense industry cooperation with Russia, including fighter jet and aircraft engine technologies, a second batch of S-400 air defense systems, and submarines." Turkey's help to Azerbaijan to defeat Russia's client Armenia isn't orbiting Russia. Nor is Turkey supplying Ukraine with defense help. Nor is Turkey fighting on the opposite side of Russia in Syria and Libya. And Turkey's bid for new and updated F-16s isn't orbiting Russia: "Turkey has made a request to the U.S. to buy 40 Lockheed Martin-made F-16 fighter jets and nearly 80 modernization kits for its existing warplanes, as the NATO ally looks to modernize its Air Force after the purchase of F-35 jets fell through, sources familiar with the matter said." And Turkey still is a NATO member. I'm totally unhappy with Islamist-friendly Erdogan. But I'm hoping his break in our relationship will fade in time as the appeal of traditional enemy Russia fades. Still, the F-16 request may be an effort to justify purchasing Russian jets if we refuse to sell F-16s to Turkey.
The first malaria vaccine has been recommended for children. It's a big deal.
Thank you for playing, but will the Russians and Turks who hired the mercenaries go along? "Libya’s rival sides reached an initial agreement Friday on the withdrawal of foreign fighters and mercenaries from the North African nation, the United Nations said, a key step toward unifying the warring sides in violence-wracked country."
The Pakistanis created the Taliban, hid bin Laden from us, and engineered the Taliban victory this year. Why on Earth should we seek to improve relations with the rulers who did this? Pakistan made their choices. Let's make them suffer for them. And let China prop up this government. And let them pay for Afghanistan if they don't want a humanitarian crisis to flood Pakistan with refugees.
Friggin' lasers on friggin' airplanes.
This is not an assault on discrimination: "New York City will phase out its programs for gifted and talented primary-grade students in the name of 'equality,' reports the New York Times." It is an assault on public schools. Parents with gifted children will either send their children to private schools, enroll them in private accelerated learning programs after school, or leave the city for public school systems that don't wage war on excellence. New York City's schools will become minimum security prisons for those who can't learn or won't learn. And that will be discrimination for the children of parents who can't escape this insanely counter-productive policy. Oh, and a warning to the parents of gifted children. Don't protest lest the FBI determine you are a domestic terrorist. How the American dream turns into dystopian nightmare.
"2SLGBTQQIA+". Over the years, the acronym has evolved from an identity into a really good password. The logic of going beyond two genders with no logical limit once you break that barrier will require many more letters and symbols. This should be fun to watch. Splitters!
China's supreme ruler repeated China's claim to Taiwan: "Chinese leader Xi Jinping said on Saturday that a 'peaceful'
reunification of Taiwan with China's mainland was in Beijing's
interests, despite ratcheted up military threats against the
self-governing island." Thank goodness he didn't say reunification would be "mostly peaceful". Our media taught us how violent and destructive that could be, eh?
Remembering those ancient days when questioning the integrity of an election wasn't verboten. Hell, I'm so old I remember when Democrats accused Trump of stealing mailboxes to rig the election.
I've noticed a couple stories about TikTok users turning their ire on Biden. While amusing and deserved at a "Let's go, Brandon!" level, TikTok is a Chinese platform. Did Xi Jinping order the social media platform aimed at Biden? If China can do that to Biden, it can be aimed at Republicans, too. So conservatives should be careful about what they cheer. I wouldn't let TikTok continue to operate in America as a Chinese-owned company.
That's a good idea: "The fastest way to [add submarines to the ranks opposing China] would be to extend the life of current Los Angeles class or British Trafalgar class submarines and transfer them to the Australians until new submarines can be built." The authors propose having some of the crew American. I assume it could also be British sailors for the latter class. This would allow Australia to get trained SSN crews into the pipeline well before their new subs under AUKUS are built. The Australians would have a lot of experience on day one of the new sub.
How does America sustain a war against a peer competitor without the ships to move the tonnage? "Between 2000 and 2019—the last normal year for trade before the pandemic spread globally—the number of oceangoing commercial ships exceeding 1,000 gross tons in the U.S. merchant fleet fell from 282 vessels to 182, with a corresponding decline of one-third in carrying capacity." And the sailors to sail them are needed, of course.
ISIL is still active in Iraq but seems to be shifting emphasis to Afghanistan. Why? In Afghanistan, despite the reports of Taliban-ISIL friction, both are Islamists and hate America. While in Iraq, an imperfect American ally still kills jihadis: "The Iraqi National Security Service (INSS) announced on its Facebook page on Sept. 29 that it had ambushed and killed two IS members in the area of Tarmiya in what is often referred to as the Baghdad Belt. The men had reportedly been planning suicide attacks in Baghdad." Which is good. But there are more than 3 years left in the Biden tenure to change that, I suppose.
The teachers unions, via the National School Boards Association, go to WOKECON 1. Mere parents can't be allowed to interfere with leftist indoctrination, apparently. And they'll lie through their teeth to defend their power to write the propaganda. Don't let them get away with this effort to unleash the power of the federal government against concerned parents.
Say, what happened to the TV news pandemic death counters? No sad-faced stories every tragic milestone? Oh, right, Biden happened. No need to point out that as many have died already this year from the Xi Jinping Flu as last year. Can't have anybody thinking Joe meant his campaign pledge to do better than the "inept" Trump response. This death toll is the record even with Biden having the vaccines that Trump initiated.
I wouldn't mind leftists going on so much about slavery in America if I had any reason to think they understood the evil exists today in other parts of the world and was common in history around the world:
An interesting article on voter demographics and party failures to appeal to potential supporters. I'll add that the day Democrats support southern border security is the day we know for sure that Hispanics are not a natural constituency of the Democratic Party. Tip to Instapundit.
Kaputnik: Russia's space program is just another entity for Putin's cronies to loot. Tip to Instapundit.
Lockdown deaths from mental health issues. It will be interesting to see the final tally of lives lost to non-Covid 19 reasons that were the result of lockdowns. Nothing is free, including saving people from the Xi Jinping Virus. It will be very interesting when the lives lost are done with statistical lives. That is, if average life expectancy for those who died from the virus was only a year, 80 people dying from the virus at 79 would be the equivalent of a single "life" if you assume life expectancy of 80. Whereas it would take just two 40-year olds committing suicide from mental health issues caused by lockdowns to equal one "life". How will this all measure up when it is over? I'm guessing not nearly as well as our government and public health people think they've done.
Are voters giving up on Biden? Well, the multiple failures on top of his cognitive shortcomings certainly indicate that the Fuck-Up Fairy makes every policy decision:
The "national divorce" talk is dangerous and misses the point that we are supposed to be already "divorced". I don't want America to break apart, which could be the end point if such talk gets out of hand. I doubt it will. I remember the late 1960s and early 1970s. That was worse. Although we lacked social media that makes today seem worse. But the talk misses the point because under our federal system we are supposed to be divorced already in our separate states. The states are supposed to write and enforce the laws that run our lives while the federal government only addresses truly national issues. We're pissed at each other because the federal government is doing things that states should do. So people far away with different values and priorities can order you about. And so controlling the federal government is all important. Maybe the federal debt will finally force the federal government to scale back.
Don't be silly, the Green cycle of interconnected "unexpected" damage is totally worth it to let Greens feel morally superior to those who don't fetishize ever-expanding numbers of recycling bins. I'd forgotten I miss reading Tim Blair. Via Instapundit.
India is buying 24 used Mirage 2000 fighters to break them up for parts. Why? "The Indian Mirage 2000s average 35 years old and equip two fighter squadrons of about 24 aircraft each. The Indian Air Force has to keep these two squadrons operational for as long as possible because the Indian military procurement bureaucracy is, as usual, delaying procurement of new aircraft far longer than any other major military power." I judged that a new fighter was India's most important defense procurement decision of the decade--in 2011. It may be the most important decision this next decade, too. Although with China's growing military power there are other candidates for the priority.
Is a new nuclear deal with Iran possible? "Iran doesn't have nukes yet, but it is close to being able to build them. Since the Trump administration withdrew in 2018 from the 2015 nuclear deal — which brought U.N. nuclear inspections in exchange for sanctions relief — Iran has drastically increased the pace of its pursuit. It is currently about a month away from producing enough fuel for a weapon, although constructing a warhead and mounting it on a missile would take much longer." Of course a new deal is possible! If America is dumb enough. Remember, the basis of the original 2015 deal was that Iran did not have a nuclear weapons program. That's what Iran said. And we pretended to believe them. Yet today, somehow despite not having a nuclear weapons program, Iran "is close to being able to build" nukes? Huh.
The European Union's two more-equal-than-others members tell Poland to submit and obey the EU. Poland escaped the Soviet Union's grasp only to invite Brussels to do with cheese regulations what tanks and secret police could not do.
I don't like this, but if it denies Iran an Arab ally rather than subsidize Iran's Arab ally, I'll swallow my reservations and accept it: "While Bashar al-Assad is still shunned by the West who blame him for a decade of brutal war in Syria, a shift is under way in the Middle East where Arab allies of the United States are bringing him in from the cold by reviving economic and diplomatic ties."
Did China just put off the day when they'd pay the price in sickness and death from the Xi Jinping Flu Covid-19 virus that erupted out of Wuhan to infect the world? If China really is preparing for a surge of cases, just how bad is the Chinese vaccine?
So the Spanish Flu pandemic lasted 26 months. With multiple effective vaccines are we really not going to dent the duration of the current Xi Jinping Flu pandemic that has already lasted at least 22 months but which may have already surpassed 26 months? How is it possible that a pandemic burned out faster with nothing to directly attack it? Is the difference laboratory modification?
I think that military personnel should be limited to wearing 8 medals on their dress uniforms. Plus the Medal of Honor around your neck, of course. Pick and choose what you value and leave the rest in your military record. They risk looking more like peacocks than fighters or leaders.
Wait. What? What kind of vile hater is Newsom to assume dolls wearing a dress are female and dolls with beards are male? "California Governor Gavin Newsom has now signed into law a bill that mandates large retailers to provide a section for gender-neutral toys." And honestly, the California people must be haters, too, considering they had the chance to cancel Newsom but decided to keep his kind of intolerant hater in office. How can any state allow state-paid travel to California any more? And also, just how anatomically accurate are today's dolls for children? Stupidity has mutated into a virulent Delta variant, clearly.
And no, I don't want to talk about the Lions gutsy comeback to go ahead on a two-point conversion only to lose to a 54-yard Vikings field goal with time expiring. I await the cleansing mercy of SMOD.
Fuck that. "Long Suicide" is more like it. Get in space as fast as we can and spread humanity out. Keeping our human eggs in one planetary basket in a galactic shooting gallery is pushing the odds enough as it is. But no, "Long Reflection" will empower the navel gazing philosophers to control humanity for millions of years before they decide if humans go to space? I'll put my trust in builders like Elon Musk, thank you very much. Fortunately, the long reflection is such a stupidly impractical idea that it could never drive policy. But I imagine it makes for a nice career now in the closed ecosystem of philosophy professors. Get out of the way! Go up, young man. Tip to Instapundit.
