Friday, January 11, 2013

Signs of Victory

Syrian rebels captured a major Syrian air base, continuing their strategy of blunting regime air power by capturing enemy air bases.

After a lengthy siege, rebels took a northern base:

Islamic militants seeking to topple President Bashar Assad took full control of a strategic northwestern air base Friday in a significant blow to government forces, seizing helicopters, tanks and multiple rocket launchers, activists said.

The Taftanaz air base in the northern Idlib province is considered the biggest field in the country's north for helicopters used to bomb rebel-held areas and deliver supplies to government troops.

The simple fact that the government could not hold a major base in the face of an estimated 700 ill-equipped rebels is a bad sign for the government's ability to win.

At this point, Syria's air power is just wearing out from lack of maintenance. And Syria still has sufficient air bases to use their dwindling air power.

So the effect on air power is incremental.

But I go back to the simple fact that the rebels captured the base. That is the significant point of the rebel victory and the government defeat. The government can't defend what they have.

The rebels may yet abandon the base after carting off weapons and ammunition, as they have at other bases, but the rebels don't need to hold them. Heck, the rebels could get double credit by attacking and seizing a base a second time if the government re-occupies the base.

Just where does the Assad regime believe it can stand and hold? How long does it believe its ground forces can endure the strain of fighting and the casualties they are enduring?

Of course, we can all be grateful that we didn't try to arm secular resistance a year ago and "militarize" this conflict that has already taken 60,000 lives, as our Secretary of State warned us.