Wednesday, June 29, 2011

In the Long Run, All Regimes are Changed

Strategypage thinks that the rebels--under the NATO air umbrella, have enough of an edge that over time the rebels will win as the loyalists crack:

Given the rate at which rebels are pushing back Kaddafi troops, and the effects of the air and sea blockade of Kaddafi controlled western Libya, Kaddafi is not expected to last more than three months. Kaddafi now has a goal. If he can hang on into October, the coalition fighting him might fall apart, enabling some kind of peace deal that would partition the country. But with the embargo and war crimes indictments, that is unlikely.

I accept that the rebels are slowly gaining ground. I've noted that. And I've long admitted that if the coalition can continue the bombing campaign indefinitely, eventually we'll crack Khaddafi's regime.

I'm just not confident that the NATO alliance can hold together that long and I'm not confident that Khaddafi's supporters abroad can't come up with some wording on his fate that will fracture the coalition and leave Khaddafi effectively in power in a divided Libya even if technically the terms of a ceasefire don't explicitly call for that outcome.

In the long run, Khaddafi's reign will end. I'm just not sure NATO will cause that to happen any time soon.