Egypt needs calm in the Horn of Africa region, both on land and at sea. Egypt earns a lot of money from Suez Canal transit fees. Is it stepping up efforts to do that? Is it getting dangerously complicated there?
Egypt’s diplomatic and military moves in the Horn of Africa over the past two years have drawn notice – especially among those focused on what regional upheavals mean for freedom of navigation and world trade in the Red Sea. Concern has grown as reports point to closer coordination between Somalia’s Al-Shabaab and Yemen’s Houthi movement, heightening the threat to regional security.
A glance at the map shows the natural geographic continuum between the Horn and the belt to its west, where two of Egypt’s core national-security axes lie – the Red Sea and the Nile basin.
I've noted Egypt's interest in the Red Sea when the Houthi threat was apparent. And I've noted Egypt's concerns about Ethiopia's GERD project that is a potential threat to the flow of the Nile River into Egypt.
Ethiopia's objective--hardly illegitimate--to get access to the sea (via Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia) is a counter-weight to Egypt and its Nile river dam concerns. But Ethiopia's drive for that access doesn't make Eritrea--which won independence from Ethiopia--a friend of Egypt. Which is a spark in dry winds per a RANE Insights email:
Proxy clashes could quickly escalate, especially as Iran and Egypt deepen support for Eritrea amid Ethiopia's internal instability. Any major flare-up would destabilize the Horn of Africa, disrupt trade routes, and draw greater involvement from external actors.
It's getting crowded in the region. And right in the middle is America's small "Fort Apache" in Djibouti. Next to a French outpost, Japanese outpost, Italian support facility, and a Chinese outpost.
I get a pre-World War I pucker factor about the maneuvering in the region.
UPDATE: Somalia ended port deals and security cooperation with the UAE over its ties to Somaliland.
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