I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: Taiwan's Marathon Problem
In case you missed it on Substack: The Oxymoron UGV Enters the Arena
In case you missed it on Substack: Russia is Preparing For a Civil War
In case you missed it on Substack: The Siren Song of Urban Warfare
Somebody smells a (jihadi) grenade. Tip to Instapundit. I've been shocked that jihadis have not struck us at home so long after our defeat in Afghanistan over four years ago.
Invite Taiwan to RIMPAC. It's a step toward driving the PLA into the sea.
Putin is worried: "there have been 56 deaths of successful businesspeople and officials under strange circumstances since February 2022. Many of them have fallen out of windows. More and more, people who have loyally served Putin’s system are being persecuted, mainly on the grounds of corruption." Hmm.
There is a subset of the right that forget that America fought on the side of the good guys in World War II. Stop that.
I'm not sure what I think about stopping "section 333" defense support, but the bigger picture is pushing Europe to bear more of the financial burden of defending Europe, no? Is the "signal" of ending that program really stronger than the reality of increased European capabilities?
I'm no expert, but that seems epically stupid. Or maybe just ordinary stupid. But still ...
Ten F-35s were deployed to Puerto Rico.
Soldier killed on rifle range at Fort Wood. I assume the named battalion is a training-only "infantry" unit for administrative purposes at the basic training facility. I was in the 3-10 infantry but was not in any way an infantryman.
Sh*t happens--even to SEAL Team 6.
Britain chooses quality over quantity for its new tank design.
Yemen hits Israeli airport with suicide drone.
Somebody hit Putin's nuke money, Medvedev, with a clue bat, please. Because you're damned right Finland is preparing for war with Russia! Don't invade Finland and there won't be war.
Ukraine's NATO sanctuary expands. So far Russia limits itself to covert sabotage missions.
China's neighbors arm up and collaborate in response to China's rising power. Never forget that America's military strength allows them to band together rather than seek to be the last swallowed.
It is somewhat comforting that Taiwanese have a will to resist: "The real obstacle is political polarization." But at the unit of analysis of the country, it may not matter why Taiwan is less prepared to resist an invasion.
That would be 20% of the incoming: "Ukraine intercepted 150 Russian drones in one night with air defense drones, Zelenskyy said." The prophecy is fulfilled.
Israel launched a brigade-sized operation in the West Bank after terrorists hit Jerusalem.
I doubt if this is more than a false spring of friendlier India-China relations. But you have to admit that India wins if China stops capturing Indian territory to maintain friendlier ties. Yet China won't stop.
Knowing the exercises will be observed, I suspect they will be Potemkin Storm disinformation: "Western observers will use Zapad 2025 to gauge the readiness of the Russian military three years after it attacked Ukraine."
As long as firing a non-line of sight missile through the barrel doesn't foul the barrel for shells, I really like a NLOS missile for tanks.
America's allies step up: "A Canadian frigate and Australian destroyer sailed through the Taiwan Strait over the weekend, prompting protests from China."
Sadly, jihadis thrive in the anarchy of Somalia: "U.S. Africa Command has now launched more annual airstrikes in Somalia this year than at any time in the organization’s nearly 20-year history." When the locals can't mow the jihadi grass, we need to make good jihadis.
Maybe reward success, eh? "Apparently, members of the U.S. Congress are discussing recognizing Somaliland as a state separate from Somalia. This would be a change in policy." Puntland has work to do. Formal Somalia is experiencing a dead cat bounce lately. Ethiopia would like an independent Somaliland.
[Cue foreboding music]: "President Vladimir Putin [is] viewing the prospect of an army returning en masse as a potential risk he wants carefully managed to avoid destabilising society and the political system he has built, three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters." Here we go?
Have a sense of urgency with AUKUS. Australian infrastructure to support their SSNs will sustain American SSNs, too. And the British if they make the long journey to INDOPACOM.
Will collapsing the Russian economy end Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Can the West collapse Russia's economy? If it can, will China simply prop it up more? And should we want China to expand its support?
The Army drew 100 M2A3 Bradleys from APS-2 prepositioned stocks for a brigade's rotation into Poland. Good practice.
American home and business security systems are compromised by Chinese equipment. Could China distract America on the eve of war by opening all the doors and publicizing this on TikTok to start flash mobs for theft and home invasion?
Ah, science: "Comprehensive national power (CNP) is a central framework through which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) measures its progress toward key strategic objectives." Does China accurately measure the correlation of forces? That is irrelevant if the CCP believes it has a scientific basis to attack.
Putin bows deeper to Xi and increases Russia's vassal status. How low can Putin bow?
Stories about a Ukrainian soldier pretending to be a Russian soldier to kill Russian troops are celebrating a war crime. Yes, Russia's war crimes are multiple orders of magnitude worse. But I refuse to celebrate when Ukraine does it.
Is China showing off its powerful Better-than-an-alliance no-name grouping? It is certainly not a China-Russia-North Korea alliance. It is China showing off its vassals. Which is useful to China as long as it has the power to compel obedience.
OH NO! Not terrorist negotiators! "The Israeli army announced Tuesday that the Air Force launched a precise strike on Hamas's senior leadership in Qatar, with the Palestinian group claiming the IDF targeted negotiators."
OH NO! "A French [debt] default, as an eventual result of a political limbo, could shatter Europe’s economy, dim the EU’s global star, and even dismantle the Union. " Anyway. But the threat is not imminent.
Survivors' pucker factors skyrocket: "Hamas said on Tuesday that five of its members had been killed in an Israeli attack in Doha, including the son of Hamas's exiled Gaza chief Khalil al-Hayya." It's a good start. Did Israel open up Pandora's Box, however? Or did that ship sail when Qatar hosted terrorists?
Yes, Alger Hiss was a State Department spy for the Soviet Union.
CRS report to Congress on United States Strategic Command.
The American Reaper drone is apparently capable of air-to-air combat.
It is interesting that Air Force special forces practiced capturing an airfield. I guess the 82nd Airborne Division, Army Rangers, and Marine Expeditionary Units aren't enough. I don't like blurring service boundaries this much.
Is the Army encroaching on Space Force responsibilities? Or is Space Force failing to provide the Army with space capabilities? And if all services need to be in space, just what does Space Force do here?
The president of Palau says China is trying to weaken the country.
FFS: "[The F-35] has encountered another batch of upgrade inadequacies with expensive and time-consuming fixes – and the actual and potential damage to U.S. defense capabilities is very real." It's still a good plane. But good grief. And yeah, I was skeptical about a single-source engine.
Did Russia deliberately attack Poland with drones in a shot across the bow? And is that a cause to invoke NATO's Article V? If so, Russia's covert attacks already justified Article V. But Article V is not an automatic declaration of war. And Article IV talks may be enough.
In what alternate world of unicorns and candy canes does energy-exporting Russia have any interest in a stable Middle East. Being "passionate" about peace (seriously, it's in her bio) is irrelevant.
China, but with warm beer? Seriously, what was Vance even talking about?
How to avoid another civil war in Syria? Avoiding a civil war requires accepting an Islamist government, of course. "Reformed" indeed.
Before we discuss what Lebanon's disarmament of Hezbollah could mean for Gaza, let's see how Lebanon's government does the job. And see if Israel is given the space to defeat Hamas.
Some F-22s are getting technology and weapons upgrades.
The Phalanx CIWS is being updated, I assume to shoot down small drones in defense of ships and land bases.
When the Philippines told America to leave Subic Bay after the Cold War, we left. Now, we--and others--are back as China threatens the Philippines and its government is willing to resist.
Despite much talk that Putin is getting away with murder since the Alaska meeting--with people losing their sh*t over the likely drone attacks on Poland (and I wonder if they had warheads)--I suspect Trump is quietly working to squeeze Russia militarily and economically.
Putin praised Kim Jong-Un at the Peking meeting, and Xi elevated Un's profile while possibly accepting North Korea's nuclear ambitions. The great game is on.
Poland responded to the drone incident by moving some troops closer to the border with Belarus where Zapad-2025 exercises scheduled to be held. Are Belarusians willing to be used by Putin to intimidate--and one day to attack--NATO?
I'm not going to assume that Charlie Kirk was assassinated by a left wing lunatic. We live in a big country and you never can tell. But if his murder is political, we need our own Je Suis Charlie resolve against political violence. And we mustn't let it fade as the French allowed it.
I don't assume social media posts pledging war after Kirk's murder are genuine. It is too easy to stand in the middle of social media and throw matches in both directions. Keep calm and react coolly. I remember the 1970s. Thank God we didn't have social media then. We can trust the government to investigate.
NATO's response to the Poland drone incident doesn't have to be kinetics. It can be more long-range weapons for Ukraine. Or more aggressive counter-intelligence to roll up Russian intelligence assets. Or something else that hurts Russia while we smile at them across a table.
At least some of the Russian drones that entered Poland's air space were decoy drones, and so without warheads. I suspect all we be found to be unarmed. But it sure seems deliberate.
We will need to keep some old Minuteman III nuclear missiles in operation until 2050.
Russia's Zapad exercise that includes Belarus is under way. The last one was in 2022 just prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Dreams come true: "Europe’s defense and autonomy were front and center in Wednesday’s State of the European Union address by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen." EU "strategic autonomy" is a code word for ejecting America from Europe.
"Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang are far from forming a cohesive bloc, the sources said." There is no honor among the Axis of Steal.
"What if China’s global port empire isn’t the master plan Washington fears, but a patchwork of messy deals shaped as much by local politics as Beijing’s ambitions?" I'd say, I believe it.
The Saudis are frustrated with subsidizing Egypt's anti-free market, debt-generating machine. How long will Egypt be Saudi Arabia's military ally? Who might step in to subsidize Egypt?
Are Europeans the baddies on free speech? Sadly, absolutely.
What the Hell is going on in Nepal? "Curfews now cage the cities, and soldiers line the streets." And how are India and China maneuvering around this crisis?
While this assault rifle-equipped Russian FPV drone could be useful for counter-drone work, it seems rather poor for ground support.
CRS report to Congress on the PLA.
FFS: "The U.S. Army mismanaged equipment stockpiles for U.S. Central Command, according to a recent Department of Defense Inspector General audit."
F-35s could get some 6th generation upgrades. Just talking, so far. Straighten out the F-35s we have right now, though, okay?
Will technology make submarines vulnerable in a transparent sea? If so, American SSBNs at least will have a lot of ocean to maneuver in. Eventually we'll need protected bastions, however.
Should mines be delivered by missiles in a contested air environment? The author suggests ASROC adaptations. But would ASurROC be better?
Well, yes, sh*t happens. But we have a Thucydides pressure valve to vent steam.
No mere treaty can limit Russian nuclear weapons. Because Sir Nukes-a-Lot needs them too much.
Seriously, dudes? Worse than during World War I? World War II? The Suez Crisis? Vietnam? Ostpolitik? The Reagan administration's military build up? The first Trump term that was Armageddon? LOL. Trans-Atlantic relations will be fine.
Has four+ decades of the Islamic Republic of Iran dealt a death blow to Islamic belief in Iran? Big, if true. Bigger would be if it spread to the rest of the broader Shia world. Biggest if it spreads to the dominant Sunni world.
Interesting: "Indonesia has embarked on its most comprehensive military restructuring in decades[.]" It includes improving air and naval components. Funny that Indonesia never felt threatened during America's long naval dominance. But sure, Indonesia is "non-aligned."
I never understood why the Ultra-Orthodox in Israel were exempted from military service.
Israel and Syria continue to talk about a security deal.
The Houthi still attack Israel with missiles.
A mercenary storm is gathering? No. That storm already hit.
Russia must be desperate to risk war with NATO with their drone incursion stunt. Stupidity on a grand scale in Moscow. What is their major malfunction?
Who wins a war over Taiwan? I'm really going to want to see the Definitions Section before answering that.
Oh please, Israel never had the world to lose. All Israel can do is be secure enough to compel the world to accept it. Because if Israel is too weak to protect itself, the world won't rescue Israel.
Collateral damage to Russia in the Caucasus from Putin's insane drive for glory in Ukraine.
Yes, Russia waages war on the West. Russia has been at war a long time. And at long last, the West is acting like Russia is at war with it. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings.
Indeed: "'hybrid warfare' has served to obscure Russia’s nature as a revisionist, imperialist, and nuclear-armed adversary." As I wrote of Crimea 2014 in Army magazine, "Hybrid warfare in that case was simple: Russia attacked Crimea. Russia denied attacking. And the West went along with Russia's fiction."
Can Ukraine decisively harm Russia's energy supplies?
Five reasons the A-10 must be retired. Honestly, my issue has never been about the platform. It has been a matter of whether the Air Force would prioritize close air support that the A-10 built for that mission represented.
The U.S. stands with the Philippines over China's aggression at Scarborough Shoal.
The U.S. wants Europeans to stop buying Russian oil before imposing heavy sanctions on Russia. Europeans will not do that any time soon.
