I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and sharing links. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
The EU is the enemy of democracy: "The days when the EU could scold countries for destabilizing democracy are long gone, if indeed they ever existed. This is organization that bullies its smaller nations and ignores the bigger ones. It listens to none." Endorsed.
I continue to update my post on Israel's war here.
Uh oh: "Pakistan’s recent discovery of oil and gas reserves, potentially among the largest globally, has sparked significant interest in its economic potential." The parasite has more blood. The poor will become more poor. China will dig in. Will Pakistan pull away from Saudi Arabia pushing the Saudis to get nukes?
I suspect missile defenses are more concentrated and not reduced: "A proposed multibillion-dollar missile defence system for Guam has been reduced to 16 sites on the island from the original 22, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency said in a draft environmental impact statement on Friday."
NASAMS: "The United States has approved $2 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, including the first-time delivery to the self-ruled island of an advanced surface-to-air missile defense system, in a move that has drawn China’s criticism."
The EU slashes away at the annoying prefix in its proto-imperial project: "Von der Leyen Wants a New Brezhnev Doctrine[.]" Yeah, the EU wants to prove that 10,000 cheese regulations are more effective than 10,000 tanks and secret police. Mind you, I disagree with the idea that Russia can't be defeated in Ukraine.
The real threat? "While global attention focuses on the potential for a major
conflagration in the Middle East, great powers are sleepwalking toward
conflict in Asia." Europe is cited, too, as a distraction. Ah yes, the endless search for Mr. Good War. Defeat today's aggressors and prepare to defeat China if it attacks.
Digging in: "The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is constructing a new counter-stealth radar system on a disputed reef in the South China Sea that would significantly expand its surveillance capabilities in the region, satellite imagery suggests."
Do Japan's elections reveal a leadership class in crisis? Democracy is not always stable in appearance. Maybe the elections simply reveal a nation unwilling to pretend all is well by searching for better policies rather than maintain a surface calm that lets problems fester. But I'm no Japan expert.
As Americans complain Europe isn't doing enough to resist Russia, is America handcuffing Europeans from resisting Russian aggression? Will we lose portions of Europe from our lack of seriousness?
China prepares: "China is expanding the number of road-mobile DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles that Beijing has called the 'Guam killer' for its ability to attack American forces on the Pacific island, according to a Defense Intelligence Agency report on foreign nuclear threats."
The Army proposed in 1959 a defended Moon base with Project Horizon. SMOD, here we come! I would have sworn I posted on this plan before. But I can't find it.
What does this mean? "The upcoming B-21 Raider stealth bomber could end up having a larger role in the Air Force’s plans for future air dominance[.]" So the B-21's role wouldn't be bombing enemy air bases? Is it to be a long-range stealth fighter plane like my AABONE proposal?
Ukraine has fired over 12,000 GMLRS rockets: "GMLRS, used in conjunction with reconnaissance UAVs like Predator, gives an army the ability to call in its own airstrikes day or night and in any weather." Will they replace tube artillery?
More weapons: "Croatia now aims to supply Ukraine with 30 M-84 tanks and 30 M-80 infantry fighting vehicles in exchange for as many as 50 new Leopard 2A8 tanks from Germany[.]" The M-84. The M-80.
Indeed: "At a moment when America’s national security situation is worse than any time in recent years, putting climate change on par with real threats - China, Russia, Iran and North Korea - is not only a dangerous distraction, it amounts to misinformation that disregards sound science and strategy."
Sh*t got real: The Pentagon published a second and more detailed plan to invigorate the American defense industry this year, including the weapons it sees as most crucial to deter China." Although I think defeating China is a better metric than deterring China. The former is more able to achieve the latter.
Good grief, of course Humvees are useful to Ukraine. If you think they aren't useful because they aren't Bradley Fighting Vehicles, I don't know what to say.
Surrounding the South China Sea: "After conducting training and
humanitarian efforts throughout the Philippine archipelago last week,
U.S. Marines are deploying across the region for exercises in Malaysia
and Indonesia. "
NATO will add combat brigades: "The increased brigades will operate under the command of 38 division headquarters, up from 24." And increased air defenses. I recently wrote in Army magazine about a means to gather atomized European battalions into American Cadre Brigade Combat Teams, as I call them.
Ukraine is having success using the "GLSDB (Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb). This weapon combines the 227mm rocket motor that propels the GMLRS and uses it to launch the latest version of the U.S. Air Force SDB (Small Diameter Bomb), the GBU-53 Stormbreaker."
Interesting story on Millennium Challenge 2002 exercise. Both sides have a point. Riper was right to be a thinking adversary trying to win. But the military has a point that it couldn't end the exercise on Riper's early victory because a lot of things were being tested in the exercise, including troops in the field.
Problem: "The U.S. is running low on some types of air-defense missiles, raising questions about the Pentagon’s readiness to respond to the continuing wars in the Middle East and Europe and a potential conflict in the Pacific." Yeah. And China can't be happy Iran and Russia warned us.
Counter-measures: "The US will receive a weapon next year designed to jam Chinese and Russian satellites in the early stages of a potential conflict, the US Air Force told Bloomberg."
Ukraine hit a training facility in Chechnya with an unprecedented long-range strike. The Chechens are outraged. Chechnya is a weird, Islamist, virtually independent part of Russia that prefers to participate in the war against Ukraine by shooting Russian soldiers insufficiently motivated to die for Putin.
I've long wanted some attention paid to the Arctic. But getting overly anxious about Russia's efforts there--which Russia hugs across its long northern sea border--seems a bit much given how little is left to dominate the Arctic given the war against Ukraine. Canada, you're up to bat!
They'll pretend he's a threat to NATO: "Here’s a dirty little secret about the U.S. presidential election: Some
European officials think a victory by former President Donald Trump
could be what the European Union needs to muscle up on defense and get
tough on China." Because the EU has a plan.
Despite the testing of a drone carrier, Italy seems to be focused on spreading networked air, surface, and underwater drones across their ships. I think that is better than having high value drone carriers whose loss takes out lots of drones, too.
The war on (Islamist) terror continues: "U.S. forces in the Middle East killed as many as 35 Islamic State group militants in a series of strikes in Syria this week, according to U.S. Central Command."
Will Putin risk surrender? "Russia may decide to just use the North Koreans as rear area support troops. There is a need for troops to help with [logistics and engineering]. ... The North Koreans would not be as desperate to desert and avoid the horrific losses Russian troops are suffering." Does Kim want them back?
Regarding just two big Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia: "These two attacks eliminated three months’ worth of Russian munitions and fuel. This will slow down Russian offensive operations for the rest of the year."
We need to build industrial capacity that can be mobilized for war. Overseas allies often are vulnerable to conventional attack on their industry. But let me add is that all we can say with confidence is that China's economic progress hasn't led to liberalization yet. History has a long timeframe. But that doesn't help now.
Hmmm: "The detention of Major General Alexander Ogloblin, the former head of Russia's military communications department, is the latest arrest of a high-ranking Russian military figure, amid speculation of a clampdown on Vladimir Putin's top brass." Dissent or paranoia?
A case for optimism: "The return of Donald Trump to the White House can transform the situation, by fixing America, bringing allies in line and making enemies think twice before taking any further risks." I'm certainly not pessimistic in general.
Iran's proxy militias inside Iraq seem to be focusing on striking Israel. What will this lead to? I've long wanted Iraq to control or disband the militias. Are they becoming too dangerous for the Iraqi government to tolerate? Or will Iran try to take control of Iraq using them?
Taiwan is testing a 100-ton UUV. Capabilities are sheer speculation.
Interesting: "More than 100 Israeli fighter jets attacked 20 targets inside Iran, ranging from its top air-defense systems to key missile manufacturing facilities, early on October 26. Their weapon of choice: air-launched ballistic missiles." I've read that 100 warplane sorties are needed to hit Iran's nuclear program.
Huh: "China's People's Liberation Army Navy conducted its first-ever dual carrier operation this month, flexing new muscles as it builds a fleet of aircraft carriers and an ever-larger naval force." Is that a threat to us or a dangerously tempting target?
Extended deterrence weakens when an ally doubts we'll trade one of our cities for our ally's: "North Korea test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time in almost a year Thursday, demonstrating a potential advancement in its ability to launch long-range nuclear attacks on the mainland U.S."
Uh oh: "Skydio, the largest American drone manufacturer, announced Wednesday it is being forced to ration batteries for its customers due to supply constraints caused by the Chinese government’s sanctions. ... "
Defeating counter-measures: "[When Ukrainian drone special operators were defeated by Russian jamming] near Dnipro in August, they turned to a new
solution: V-BAT drones built to withstand the massive electronic interference used by both sides in the war in Ukraine." I can't find a price. So ... $$$
That's useful: "In 2023 an American company has begun production of a 21st century version of the World War II PBY Catalina patrol aircraft. The new Catalina weighs 14.5-tons and is powered by two turboprop engines. The new Catalina can carry up to 34 passengers or 5.5 tons of cargo and has a smaller crew."
China lacks anti-submarine and mine-clearing capabilities: "Many navies share this shortcoming but for a major maritime trading nation like China, it would be sad to see all that trade shut down by a few hundred naval mines." Seems too conveniently easy, no?
Keeping every swinging (or flapping?) hull in the fleet: "Twelve Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers will remain in the fleet past their initial service lives, the Navy announced on Thursday." The extensions are from 1-5 years.
Dousing enthusiasm for the never-achieved hope for a "silver bullet" wonder solution to battlefield problems. Speaking to my choir.
Will Xi Jinping drive workers into the cyber-world? "Some details resemble aspects of Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward (1958-61), which tried to boost production through organized working groups and intense political education but ended in disastrous failure, famine, and 30 million to 45 million deaths."
Bad:
"Iran’s growing military and political control over federal Iraq
appears to be part of a broader Iranian strategy to turn the country
into a base of operations from which Iran and its Axis of Resistance can
conduct future operations and attacks against Israel. " Are we even
trying to win Phase IX of the Iraq War?
This is a war on terror lesson? "Ultimately, we need to consider how our actions uphold or undermine our adversaries’ ideologies and fight both the military capacity and the ideology of our adversaries in a synergistic way where both are undermined simultaneously." We crushed the Nazis. That's the lesson.
Victory through (cheap) air power? "Over the past two years, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian targets have reached further and further into Russia. Russian naval and air force bases in Murmansk have increasingly suffered attacks by Ukrainian drones."
Is it really concerning that China and Russia's cooperate in the Arctic? "The United States is watching growing cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic closely and some of their recent military collaboration in the region sends 'concerning signals,' the U.S. Arctic ambassador said." Really?
Friends: "In Ukraine NATO military and economic aid continues to flow into Ukraine, with the Americans still supplying most of it. European NATO countries are supplying most of the economic aid to Ukraine and planning to be the major supplier of economic investments in Ukraine after the war."
Uh oh: "Iran claimed it could build nuclear weapons as its supreme leader on Saturday threatened the US and Israel with a “tooth-breaking response” to Israel’s strike on Iranian military targets." I've long argued that Iran needs nukes in hand before it can make nukes. Does Iran have North Korean nuclear missiles?
Good: "The commander of the German Army brigade that is to be stationed in Lithuania said plans for the large-scale troop deployment are progressing well." But it is only a brigade. Get back to me when Germany can field a corps--as a start.
Ethiopia has banned the import of gasoline-powered privately owned cars. But the country is not ready, "from the erratic supply of electricity in Addis Ababa, the capital, to the scarcity of spare parts." I assume the massive GERD Nile River dam is anticipated to fill the need. One day. I guess.
