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Wednesday, May 08, 2024

Hold the Line in the Middle East

The Middle East is a violent place with a dizzying array of hatreds criss-crossing the region. American military efforts didn't transform the place into one where bike path debates are the most intense differences. But that isn't the measure of success. Let's defend what we achieved, okay? Or we'll have to go back.

This author decries military aid to the Middle East that he says shortchanges Asia

Today, despite all of these grand declarations [of the primacy of defending the Asia-Pacific region], 86 percent of the annual U.S. Foreign Military Financing (FMF) still goes overwhelmingly, as it has for decades, to nations in the Middle East. 

Within that overwhelming portion of the pie, the top beneficiaries of this largesse include long-time security partners Israel, Egypt, and Jordan. Of the roughly $13.2 billion Congress placed in the FMF account in Fiscal Year 2024, Egypt’s security assistance is roughly $1.3 billion, and Israel’s share is a tremendous $6.8 billion.

Gosh, why would Israel's aid have surged? 

As daily news stories illustrate, the Middle East is under threat. Why waste the results of the surge of direct American military effort by failing to defend the win?

Yes, a Middle East with allies who help us hunt jihadis, host and support our military efforts to oppose Iran or anybody else, and export oil, is a win. The fact that we can mostly send aid to keep the region at a low simmer without American forces in routine ground combat is a good thing.

And yes, Middle East oil exports to the rest of the world keeps our allies going and sustain economies that we trade with. That's vitally important to our prosperity and security even if we import none of those energy exports.

This is not a steady-state, semi-stable normal that we can just walk away from and expect to continue. Did our needless defeat in Afghanistan in 2021 when even a minimal effort would have held the line teach us nothing? I mean, if the rise of the Islamic State in 2014 didn't teach us the lesson after be needlessly bugged out of Iraq in 2011.

Sure, near the end the author walks back the implications of his arguments to say that the dominance of FMF aid to the Middle East should be reduced by increasing the total pie of aid. But that does not help that much when the argument the author makes clearly leads to the conclusion that America spends too much in the Middle East with the FMF program. If the author didn't want to leave that impression, why not simply make the case that Asian friends and allies need greater FMF aid?

Helping local allies in the Middle East is the best way to reduce the need for direct, persistent American combat to hold the line. Maybe with some more years of aid we won't need to use our military to help allies defeat enemy threats as we had to do when Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel and as Iran's ally the Houthi attack shipping in the Red Sea region.

FMF is just one part of our efforts--direct and indirect--to defend our interests and allies who help keep us the dominant power. I prefer sending aid over sending more troops to fight and die.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post