Will Russia Pay Any Price and Bear Any Burden?

Russia does not have limitless endurance in blood and treasure to remain fighting in Ukraine without victory.  

I think Russia will accept defeat in Ukraine when the price of continuing to fight Ukraine is higher than the price of admitting defeat:

People like to say Russia can't afford to end the war without victory. So we should just let Ukraine die. At the moment Russia can't admit defeat. But at some point if Russia continues screwing the pooch, ending the war with retreat may seem like the best outcome Russia can get.

Being bigger than Ukraine is certainly a Russian advantage. But being larger is not a guarantee of victory in general or in the direct case of Russia versus Western-supported Ukraine.

So obviously I agree with this author:

The war is a quagmire, and at some point, the costs of fighting endlessly just make it easier and cheaper to give up and go home. In other words, Ukraine probably will not win so much as Russia will lose, and Russia will choose to lose because it is cheaper.  

Exactly. Before Russia invaded I was in favor of killing Russians and imposing a price on Russia:

Why doesn't the West make Russia's tolerable "forever war" against Ukraine an actual quagmire that hurts Russia enough until it leaves?

That was my advice early on. Make Ukraine Putin's bleeding ulcer, I said. 

Russia is bleeding now. Even as Russia mostly holds the line during Ukraine's tentative counteroffensive, are events taking place behind the line that will cripple Russia's war effort? 

The high casualty rates in Russian combat units has led to increasing protests from wives and mothers of men conscripted or “mobilized” (persuaded or forced to join) into the army.

The home front might be shaky. Or: 

The new recruits are more aware of poor preparation (training and equipment) and combat leadership that is common in Ukraine. All this led to severe morale problems.

Units in combat are often too busy surviving to revolt unless things get really bad. But the guys behind the lines have more time to think and worry--and opportunity to act out.

Just as Russia did in Afghanistan, Russia can turn around and exit Ukraine when the price of remaining inside Ukraine to fight Ukraine's army is too high. 

Nobody will be pursuing the Russian army back to Moscow. Except maybe the mothers of Russia's dead seeking revenge on the government.

NOTE: TDR coverage of the Winter War of 2022 continues here.