So Iran is about to test a nuclear device? If true, we may have already lost the opportunity to prevent Iran from deploying nuclear weapons.
This might not be the start of an Iranian nuclear threat:
Iran continues to pursue illicit nuclear weapons technology across Europe and is on the cusp of testing its first nuclear warhead, according to intelligence estimates from three separate countries.
An Iranian nuclear test might be the sign than Iran already has a nuclear missile force.
I've worried that much of Iran's nuclear infrastructure is long-term in nature and not the driving force of getting a nuclear weapon. I've worried Iran subcontracted nuclear weapons work to North Korea, safely out of range of Israel and sort of under China's protection:
Iran's rulers may be nuts but they're not stupid. They know we can attack them. So they take precautions to minimize our strikes, like digging deep or siting near civilian targets. Outsourcing weapons programs to trusted rogues is another way to do that.
North Korea is broke and could make a lot of money from Iran. As I asked long ago:
If Iran can announce both the ability to make nuclear bomb material and the possession of actual nuclear weapons--perhaps by detonating one in a test on their own territory--Tehran would quite possibly deter an attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
We're not dealing with idiots. If the Iranian mullahs believe there are red lines that trigger Israeli or American action, why wouldn't they take counter-actions rather than just blindly cross those lines and provide a pretext for military action against them?
But we keep watching the nuclear enrichment status. Or now, anticipating a nuclear test as if that's the signal we should seriously begin to worry rather than the signal it is too late.
Have a super sparkly day.
NOTE: TDR coverage of the Winter War of 2022 continues here.
