If China can't be deterred from invading Taiwan, we have to think about how to prevent China from conquering Taiwan that doesn't involve an expensive war to defeat China.
... does China have the capabilities? This is difficult to answer decisively. But the danger point occurs when China believes it has the capability.
Exactly. China doesn't need to have the capability to invade to start a war. Its leaders only have to believe it has the capability.
Or do you really believe China's rulers get good information? And Lord knows what lessons China might draw from Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
China might lose the war it starts. But we'd be in a war. That is costly even if we and our allies win.
Point China inland to distract its leaders, I say. Because I have never been happy with trying to deter China. And I might have grossly under-estimated the deterrence problem if that author is correct.
Perhaps China can't be deterred. Perhaps they can be distracted.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
