In recent years I've occasionally read that George W. Bush (43) didn't do much about Russia's 2008 war against Georgia. I disagree. Democrats shouldn't cite that crisis as a defense of Obama's 2014 reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, nor as a defense of Biden's failure to deter Russia's 2022 invasion.* Under difficult political conditions Bush did a lot. And at the end of the war Russia controlled nothing more than the territory it started with.
You remember Putin's Goons of August War. It lasted less than a week in August 2008 and despite taking on tiny Georgia, exposed Russian military weaknesses. The war prompted Putin to order a major rebuilding and modernization of the Russian military. Putin wrongly thought he built that military.
First consider the environment Bush operated in. He was leaving office after two terms with low approval ratings from the Iraq War, primarily. Democrats had eagerly put their secular savior, Obama, into a campaign against the purportedly (suddenly, since his nomination) senile, unstable, and racist McCain. Until then, Democrats had called McCain an honorable "maverick" bucking the Republican Party. Then add in the financial crisis that took place the next month. Then consider you have the problem of potentially starting a war that he'd hand off to the winner of the American election to finish.
Admit it, if Bush had acted more openly and resolutely against Russia, Democrats would have impeached Bush on the charge of trying to cancel the election in the face of the financial crisis and prevent the savior Obama from taking Americans into the promised land. (Yeah, I'm still a little bitter about that election. It is good that America elected an African-American president. It is tragic that Obama was the one.) Hell, Putin claimed that was why Bush helped Georgia!
Consider, too, that the Europeans--and America's media--made excuses for Russia's invasion and falsely blamed Georgia for starting the war:
The ramshackle Russian military, rusting away for two decades now, miraculously put together an invasion of Georgia, flying in paratroopers even from distant bases, within hours of being attacked by Georgia? You seriously believe that version of events?
Russia got their South Ossetian goon allies to shoot at the Georgians and the Gerogians [sic] obliged by shooting back--which triggered the overt Russian invasion of Georgia. That is the reality of the situation.
Georgia fell for the provocation and gave Russia the excuse to invade.
This excuse was made despite Russia's practice run for invasion. Bush would get no support from Europe to oppose Russia. And here in America the analysis was that the invasion of Georgia was a one-off and not a sign of things to come.
Strategery.
Bush actually did a lot in the short war despite the forces constraining him:
Bush rejected Putin's demand that the Georgian leader resign.
Bush sent a Coast Guard ship into a Georgian port with humanitarian aid. The aid was small, but the presence of an American armed vessel was a shield against Russian attack. Later, American warships carried out the same mission. And America sent in an intelligence-gathering ship to make the Russians expose their electronic systems.
America also airlifted a American-trained Georgian brigade back to Georgia from Iraq where it was deployed as part of America's coalition.
Further, America escorted those transport planes with American fighters, letting the Russians know that they'd have to fight to operate in the same air space. It was in effect a no-fly zone.
In the end, Russia withdrew despite plunging deep into Georgia against the weak Georgian ground units trained for COIN and not conventional combat. Perhaps the Russians were alarmed at heavy combat losses despite ineffective Georgian ground resistance and breakdowns of Russian vehicles on the road to Tblisi, the capital.
At the end of the war Russia controlled nothing it didn't already control before the war through its local proxies.
South Ossetia and Abkhazia declared their separation from Georgia after the war, under Russian protection, but that was mostly meaningless given the preexisting Russian control.
And NATO proclaimed Georgia would join NATO eventually.
Later, Bush confirmed American missile defenses in Eastern Europe--which the Eastern Europeans were eager to have--that Russia vigorously opposed.
And Georgia's leader remained in power.
Remember, too, that Georgia later sent troops to help us in Afghanistan. Georgia was apparently satisfied with our help.
And what did Obama do in 2009 after winning the election? He sent Hillary Clinton to yuck it up with Lavrov and "reset" U.S.-Russian relations. Let's not bicker and argue over who killed who, eh?
And Obama canceled the missile defense system in Eastern Europe that Bush had approved. On the anniversary of the USSR's invasion of Poland in 1939, no less.
Plus Obama cut the Army in Europe down to just two combat brigades.
Strategery.
And NATO quietly walked away from Georgia's NATO membership pledge. No need because relations with Russia were "reset", eh?
So Bush did much more than Obama did either in 2009 to rebuke and contain Russia or later in 2014 and 2015 when Putin turned his sights on Ukraine. And Bush did more than Biden did in 2021 before Putin invaded Ukraine again in 2022.**
The problem with Bush speaking softly and carrying a big stick is that over time people think the soft speech means he did little.
Bush screwed up with his "compassionate conservatism" in domestic policies which was seemingly just spending as fast as liberals. But let's not forget what he did right.
*Not that I blame Biden for failing to deter Russia. Putin was beyond that. All we could do was prepare Ukraine to fight Russia.
**Although I'll say it again, Biden has done fine since the invasion in supporting Ukraine. Even though I strongly suspect he assumed Ukraine would quickly lose as his military advisors assessed, and so thought his reputation for resolve would only cost a month of Javelin and Stinger shipments to Ukraine.
For sources I used these posts of mine: One, two, three, four, five, six, and seven.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
