No Regerts In the Middle East

The Iran problem is a Middle East problem. Which could become a world problem all too fast. This isn't how our big nuanced diplomatic brains saw this working out.

In 2016, Obama explained what was behind his awful Iran nuclear deal by putting Iran in a broader context:

“The competition between the Saudis and the Iranians – which has helped to feed proxy wars and chaos in Syria and Iraq and Yemen – requires us to say to our friends as well as to the Iranians that they need to find an effective way to share the neighbourhood and institute some sort of cold peace,” Mr Obama said. Not only did the former president place an ally and an enemy on the same footing, he implied that it was up to regional states to impose a balance of power so that the Americans could concentrate on other parts of the world.

Yes, it seemed like an abandonment of allies who wanted American help to resist mullah-run Iran.

And this reinforces my view in 2012 that the Obama pivot to Asia was more of a pivot away from the Middle East:

This is no reason for our loud pivot [to the Pacific]. As I said, the pivot has been going on for many years in reaction to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of China.

So for our president, who simply doesn't want to fight Islamist radicalism in the Middle East--or admit there is a war on terror--pivoting to Asia--which is already taking place--was really about pivoting away from the Middle East. It is repackaging an unwillingness to fight the war we are currently in as a strategy of preparing for the next war (or preventing it with strength).

But it is way too early to pivot away from the Middle East.

Two years later we discovered walking away from Iraq was premature. It required the too-long and bloody Iraq War 2.0 to recover from that mistake. Although it paved the way for Iran to push its malign influence into Iraq to fight ISIL.

But walking away more broadly was still a good idea after witnessing that unfold? Amazingly, strengthening Iran to encourage the states of the region to cut deals and create peace to allow for a stable region without American power holding the line was Obama's goal. 

Mission accomplished, I guess.

But it is even more delusional than that hope for balance-of-power stability. Obama thought his diplomatic genius would turn mullah-run Iran into a model member of the international community:

President Barack Obama has spoken of his ambition to bring Iran in from the cold, saying the long-time US foe could be “a very successful regional power” if it agrees to a deal over its nuclear programme. ...

“There's incredible talent and resources and sophistication inside of Iran, and it would be a very successful regional power that was also abiding by international norms and international rules, and that would be good for everybody,” Mr Obama said. 

In fact--contrary to Obama administration predictions--the policy allowed Iran to afford its aggressive foreign policy. So our allies saw no evidence of the kumbaya moment finally arriving in the Middle East. All our allies saw was America walking away and closing its eyes to Iran's aggression and nuclear weapons ambitions. It must have been shocking for our allies to realize the stunning reality.

Strategery.

As the initial author notes, the president got what he wanted and we now regret it:

In many regards, the region has come around to the vision Mr Obama outlined in his interview. And the Americans are discovering they don’t like it. Two prime examples of this situation, chosen at random, have been Turkey’s attempts to snuff out de facto Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, against US wishes. And more recently, the decision in October of the Opec+ group to cut oil production, which was reaffirmed in December.

America's former allies have found it more advisable to hedge their bets.

Indeed. And when former allies decide that they will act like we aren't their ally against threats, they act differently. What a shock.

I've noted that in regard to Saudi Arabia and for our Gulf Arab allies in general who see our moves as less about letting them and their neighbors sort things out than letting regional longstanding threats loose to prey on them. 

In my view, while we didn't need as much military power in the Middle East, we still needed to support our friends and oppose our allies who try to keep the region calm. 

Although we must not worship the false god of stability.

And then there is the issue of reduced but persistent jihadi terrorism grass mowing.

Leaving the Middle East to resolve its own problems is a mistake. Sadly, one way of being able to remain in a supporting role would have been to encourage our allies to work together against the threats to the peace. Sadly, the bold Abraham Accords forging peaceful ties between Arab states and Israel to oppose Iranian threats were allowed to atrophy in the last two years.

It's funny that local countries worry about us not protecting the Middle East when so many here wrongly think America ruined the region.

I hope we don't pay too much of a price for walking away. I imagine those responsible will claim no regerts for their policies. But America and the world will pay the price.

Have a super sparkly kumbaya-singing, neighborhood-sharing Middle East day. 

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.