What Lessons Will China Learn From Russia?

As China observes Putin's invasion of Ukraine, will China learn it can't possibly win a war to capture Taiwan? Or will China learn the West will let China hold what it captures after a ceasefire?

Russia may hope its special mobilization provides enough cannon fodder to get Russia through the next 6 months until the weather is better and Russia can train its autumn conscript class. If that works out and Western resolve to back Ukraine falters, Russia may win the war as measured by territorial gains. That victory will likely be Pyrrhic in the end and worsen Russia's position in the long run. But rather than provide China with reasons to avoid war because of high casualties, would a Russian territorial victory actually encourage China to invade Taiwan?

China's economic problems have a tantalizingly close source of what Xi Jinping could believe is the source of their salvation:

[Taiwan], which drives just 1pc of global economic output, punches well above its weight because it’s cornered a large share of the market. Just under 40pc of the world’s processor chip manufacturing capacity is Taiwanese, while its high-end dominance is even greater. Ninety-two per cent of the most advanced semiconductors are made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).

I think that an invasion would provoke immediate American and Japanese intervention to defend the island and its chip industry. Or to at least evacuate the key Taiwanese semiconductor people, equipment, and data files. Followed by the figurative carpet bombing of the facilities if the Taiwanese don't destroy them on their own.

One analyst in Spectator magazine believes Xi Jinping gained his third term confirmation from the CCP by promising to solve the Taiwan issue:

‘During his keynote address at the opening ceremony of the National Party Congress,’ Seki continued, ‘Xi drew enthusiastic applause as he vowed to unify Taiwan with the mainland. Xi made it clear that he would use force to take Taiwan if necessary.’ I asked Seki if Xi would follow through on his end of the bargain. ‘The possibility of a move to take Taiwan is now very high,’ he replied. ‘Even if that means war.’

Yet China wants to avoid war with America over Taiwan:

‘Xi Jinping wants to avoid war with the United States,’ Seki told me. ‘What he and the CCP are trying to do is to arrange things so that Washington does not send forces to Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. Beijing has nuclear weapons. China will threaten the American military and attempt to keep the American side from moving [in response to a move by China].’

The whole warning is interesting when you consider so many analysts say China simply "can't" invade Taiwan. As in, it is impossible. I disagree and think China can invade if it believes its casualties will be acceptable. 

And "acceptable" could be highly variable depending on the needs of Xi Jinping to stay in power. Seriously, Xi's "rational" may be beyond our ability to perceive in time.

But if Xi orders the PLA to invade Taiwan, speed is the key to China invading successfully and avoiding American intervention. Presenting America with the problem of reversing a Chinese invasion rather than stopping it could well deter America from going to war with nuclear-armed China.

I also think that a successful invasion may not have to mean the conquest of Taiwan. If China gains a bridgehead that may be enough for China.

That result might seem like a small enough gain for America to accept, spinning the outcome as a victory by preventing China from conquering Taiwan.

But the outcome would be a Chinese victory by letting China build up for a land campaign to conquer Taiwan. A much easier task than an amphibious invasion.

The Spectator article says China wants to intervene while the West is busy supporting Ukraine. Waiting until the war is over, it is claimed, would miss a window of opportunity. Maybe. 

But America and its Asian allies have a lot of power completely unaffected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. So China has reason to wait for the final outcome of the war before drawing conclusions about whether war or "peace" (which includes preparing to attack and subverting Taiwan) should be China's short-term plan of action for Taiwan.

If Russia manages to end its war with Ukraine still holding most of its territorial gains, I think that outcome will encourage China to believe it can achieve the same thing. I mean, if those bumbling, smelly chimps with nukes can grab and hold land in the face of Western resistance, surely the glorious Han Chinese who haven't forsaken Marxist political control of the state can grab a bridgehead on Taiwan and deter America from reversing that gain!

And within a few years China could conquer or intimidate Taiwan into submission. With the chip fabrication plants finally back home in China.

And all that it takes for a war to start is for Xi Jinping to believe it is true.

NOTE: War updates continue here.