Is China determined to do something militarily in response to Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan? Would this exploit the West's focus on defending Ukraine to grab some territory deemed vital to China? And demonstrate to the world that China is the dominant state in the China-Russia "partnership?"
China's military exercises "in response to" Pelosi's visit to Taiwan may virtually surround Taiwan:
Experts raised alarms over the exercise, with some noting that the drills would overlap with Taiwan’s territorial waters. M. Taylor Fravel, director of the MIT Security Studies Program, said the drills appear to be “unprecedented,” noting that they would be “the largest number of exercises to be conducted very close to the island of Taiwan itself, and the first to take place on all sides surrounding Taiwan.
Which might come in very handy for a small military response that pulls Taiwan's tiny Pratas Island into China's embrace, as I've observed is an option:
China has considered taking tiny and vulnerable Pratas Island from Taiwan. This makes sense as a graduation exercise for China's military that signals to the world that China has begun the roll back of what the Chinese Communist Party calls their Century of Humiliation.Wouldn't that be a concrete reversal of China's claim that Pelosi is essentially prying Taiwan away from China's inevitable "reunification" with Taiwan? As I noted, the conquest could be over quickly. Which gives America a ready excuse to do nothing but complain in the immediate aftermath.
And wouldn't that rub Putin's nose in his stumbling invasion of Ukraine that has exposed Russia's military as being far weaker than claimed? Which would--if rapidly successful--show that China is a superior military power and clearly lay claim to being the dominant power and Russia clearly the client state?
Or maybe these purported PLA troop movements indicate China is planning something closer to home? Might that be a little too bloody to be ignored?
Or maybe China wants all three island targets and believes Taiwanese resistance would collapse quickly, ending that whole Ukraine resistance template that has arisen?
Does China feel a sense of urgency to do something that advances their claims while they can? Even if they don't want to launch a full invasion? And would the motivation be to do something while Russia is still standing? Which might perhaps take some pressure off of Russia?
I hope Taiwan is checking ammo and doubling the guard.
UPDATE: Is China prepared to do something because vocal Western support for Taiwan is humiliating?
China now fears that if DPP leaders and their Western supporters do not pay a price for their affronts, it will lose its grip on the situation. This would not only undermine Xi’s chance of achieving his long-term goal of reunification; it also could invite accusations of weakness that would undermine his standing both within and outside China.
If so, bigger exercises and sabre rattling may not be enough. War may not be the answer--now--but something smaller might be.
UPDATE: China has extended its military exercises around Taiwan begun after Pelosi's visit.
NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.
