Is it too hard for China to invade Taiwan?
Yes, invading Taiwan is hard:
China could invade Taiwan. Its military dwarfs the island nation's armed forces, but any invasion would likely be more akin to the brutal Allied WWII landings on Normandy than the swift victory of Operation Desert Storm in the first Gulf War in 1991.
From the Well Duh files, yes, an opposed amphibious invasion is harder than an overland invasion after months of building up forces and logistics in a neighboring allied country. The article discusses a number of problems--mostly legitimate.
Yet those problems aren't necessarily lethal to success if China is willing to accept the casualties to land an army on Taiwan. And if China can work around those typhoon periods, don't count on weather saving Taiwan.
For examples of problems that are hardly show stoppers, so what if Taiwanese troops retreat into the mountains? China will have the assets and people if it takes the lowland coastal regions. And who really believes China will hesitate to use as much firepower as it needs at the price of alienating the (surviving) Taiwanese? Hell, China, I think, has an alternative to winning hearts and minds.
One big problem with the idea that China can't succeed at an acceptable price is that the Taiwanese aren't nearly as devoted to fighting and dying as the Japanese in World War II:
[The] 153,000 personnel in Taiwan’s Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps represent roughly 80 percent of its authorized end strength, with this percentage falling to 60 percent in its front-line units as the military seeks to transition away from conscription and into an all-volunteer force.
And while its equipment numbers look imposing, supply and maintenance issues as well as the age of some of Taiwan’s platforms mean availability rates are low, potentially affecting training in peacetime and effectiveness in conflict. ...
Taiwan’s conscripts and reserves leave much to be desired, with the former spending too little of their 16-week service on combat training, he said.
Taiwan's reserve system is a hot mess and probably nearly worthless if not actually counter-productive by wasting Taiwanese time and resources trying to gather and use reservists worth little more than manning quiet checkpoints.
Further, Taiwan wasn't America's main
objective in 1944--unlike its status as a core Chinese objective
around which China has built its military. China has far higher motivation to invade.
Will logistics be a challenge for China, as the article says? Oh Hell yes. But the Chinese effort just has to be better than Taiwan's. How good are Taiwan's ammunition stockpiles? I assume the situation is better now. I've read that is so. But how well protected are the stockpiles? How good is Taiwan's ability to get that ammo to the firing units? How quickly would America open a supply line to Taiwan?
Nor do I think lack of invasion beaches is key given the inadequacy of Chinese amphibious warfare capabilities. China clearly isn't counting on ample beaches. China can look to the past for how that can work.
And what if China wins just by getting ashore and then imposing a ceasefire, as I assumed for this Military Review article? Heck, in that D-Day example given for how difficult a Chinese invasion would be considering potential typhoons, the Allies made it ashore with just a brief break in the weather. How much time would China need to get ashore on Taiwan and simply hold their bridgeheads?
And wouldn't that reduced objective--rather than an immediate march on Taipei and conquest of Taiwan--reduce the logistics burden on China that is assumed to preclude a Chinese victory?
Nor would I be comfortable defining what cost is too much for China to bear. I'd want to know what the alternatives to those losses to conquer Taiwan are. If a nationalistic and unhappy population demands China take Taiwan, will the Chinese Communist Party consider any levels of casualties acceptable to prevent a popular threat to their monopoly on political power?
I disagree with anybody who says difficulties mean an invasion is impossible. Which is what many people do with articles like the one cited initially that describes problems. Taiwan has difficulties, too. Which side has more and who does a better job of minimizing their own and maximizing the enemy's?
And don't get me started on a Taiwanese "porcupine" strategy that presumes to know how much pain the other side is willing to endure. Did Russia get deterred by all those Javelins we sent? Taiwan needs to be all the animals and best spend like its life depends on it.
UPDATE: I should note that there are also people who think it is impossible for Taiwan to defeat a Chinese invasion. I disagree with them, too. Stop claiming something must happen or can't happen, and work to make something good happen.
NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.
