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Sunday, July 03, 2022

Weekend Data Dump

Even as Biden has admirably supported Ukraine's fight against Russia, Biden is undermining Western support. That's what wrongly blaming Putin for our inflation (yes, yes, it is one factor--but inflation predates the war by a lot) will do. I wonder if Biden's people want the American public to pressure him into abandoning Ukraine.

Turkey plays its UAE Get Out of Jail For a Price card.

Can NATO really increase its response force to 300,000 from 40,000?

Don't be silly, producing more energy in America would actually help people. As if mere people know what helps them!

The tug between Europe and Asia for American force deployments. Europe needs to step up. Also, note that the NATO pledge for 2% of GDP defense spending had a 2024 deadline.

Defining proxy war. I agree that "hybrid war" (and "gray area war") is a useless new terminology.

And yet the military is ejecting troops who haven't gotten the Covid-19 vaccine that won't even prevent you from getting what might be mild cold symptoms: "The Army is tossing its mandate for potential recruits to have a high school diploma or GED certificate to enlist in the service, in one of the most dramatic moves yet in the escalating recruiting crisis hitting the entire Defense Department." FFS. [Later: Never mind.]

If it isn't clear to you already, Feminism isn't pro-women. It is just the women's* auxiliary of the Democratic Party. (*But I'm not a biologist.)

Call them raging racists and focus on their use of pronouns, and difficulty recruiting is shocking?

Give that man a medal

The Xi Jinping Covid-19 pandemic is more than 2-1/2 years old. Didn't the Spanish Flu die out in 2 years? Is the longevity of this virus due to being engineered in Wuhan? Or perhaps are we less willing to let it go? That is, did our forebears of a century ago declare it over when it got to a similar dull roar as today's virus?

After perhaps 500,000 dead since 2011, Syria's civil war that became a multi-war is mostly over but the dangerous remnants linger on preventing rebuilding. So it could get worse again.

The Army is pushing forward on seeking a replacement design for the Bradley IFV. The demand for a "quiet" electric drive to supplement the main engine seems like Green gold plating. So I assume we'll be relying on the Bradley for a couple more decades.

The Syria template didn't work in Ukraine: "The Russian commander of forces in Ukraine, four- star general Aleksandr V. Dvornikov, was relieved (removed) for failure to do what he did in Syria. Dvornikov was the first commander of all operations in Ukraine. ... Dvornikov was free to do whatever it takes to turn the defeats in Ukraine into a victory. He was ordered to achieve a victory in eastern Ukraine by June 10th and failed."

The German Greens share responsibility with Russia for Germany's energy woes

There is but one response to this. 🙄 Tip to Instapundit.

It is funny that all of a sudden pro-abortion activists can define "women" and" men" because the activists want to attack anti-abortion men. Must have been a lot of teach-ins on biology.

India's plan to reduce the number of aging soldiers on the expensive pension track. Money spent on pensions isn't helping stop Chinese border aggression.

Oddly, America is below maximum: "French President Emmanuel Macron said that the United Arab Emirates’ ruler confided to him that OPEC’s two leading oil exporters are already pumping almost as much oil as they can."

Almost true: "Putin is utterly indifferent to the number of casualties his troops sustain in their ill-planned frontal attacks against Ukrainian positions in the east and south. Such a Russia cannot lose." Putin cares as much as his people can express that they care.

The planned Ukrainian counter-offensive is being planned for late summer? Giving Putin time is a bad idea. I guess Ukraine needs the time, too. And yeah, early on I looked at the south as the logical point for Ukraine's counter-offensive.

My worry did not materialize as Russia resorted to a frontal assault on the Donbas front. My hope is only in its infancy.

Compare and contrast

The U.S. intends to base a few hundred more troops in Poland and add a couple ships to a Spanish home port. I assume the troops will be advance team for something bigger and that the ships are missile defense ships. Although the article suggests the troops might beef up the battalion-sized battlegroup America has there. What we need is REFORPOL.

Looking at Sweden and Finland joining NATO; and Turkey's opposition. Later: Turkey will approve their membership now.

I deliberately chose my preferred name for Russia's invasion of Ukraine--the Winter War of 2022--because I figured initial Russian failures would be followed by massive firepower offensives. That has happened. Albeit on a small front. And Ukraine is resisting longer than Finland could manage. To be fair, Ukraine is getting far more Western support than Finland got.

Spain: "The presence of Russia in North African countries is increasing in a region where political instability and militant activity are spreading[.]" Who thinks the purpose of Russia's presence there isn't to spread militant activity and instability? Sending refugees to Europe is an objective.

That's how it works: "It’s a good thing Joe Biden isn’t a Republican, or every single news outlet in the world would be all over this [latest Hunter Biden laptop-based Russian hooker and dad's money] story. You wouldn’t hear anything else for weeks or months."

Russia didn't expand artillery ammunition production before the war. And even assuming they have by now don't have the production capacity to sustain their rate of fire now. Question: Will China supply the ammunition? Or let Russia weaken given certain ... ah ... issues between them?

Some reasonable--and good--lessons for the Army from the Winter War of 2022. Although I disagree that there is no conceivable role for the Army's core competencies in Asia--even if you rule out a land war on the mainland. If European NATO armies get their act together, a single American Army corps would be sufficient to tie those abilities together.

Huh. when I mentioned it earlier, I didn't get the "help the jihadis kill us" angle of that white supremacist soldier arrested before he could commit an evil act. Tip to PJ Media.

Somalia: Fake it until they make a country?

North Korea has computers. If you wonder why.

This author thinks the Republican Party "is a multipronged, fundamentally antidemocratic movement... determined to impose its policy and social vision on the entire country—with or without majority support". Now I understand "projection."

Xi Jinping promises to continue China's Covid Zero policy--with the ruthless lockdowns that requires. I appreciate his fairness in making sure the country that engineered and released the virus is hurt at least as badly as the rest of the world.

Limbo? No, they're in Hell. Or at best, they're close enough to see the flames, feel the heat, and hear the screams.

Well I'll be darned! Ignorance of the law is an excuse after all! For some, of course. Tip to Instapundit.

Welp, the Army has selected the contractor to build its light tank, called Mobile Protected Firepower. Or as I like to call it, the Future Burned-Out Hulk. I guess a Air Force C-17 can carry two. LOL! This will work just swell, I'm sure.

The territorial disputes that the Philippines has with China extends to Taiwan. But not with the same danger of shooting. 

Defending the carrier role in Pacific sea control. If we need carriers for aviation because land bases are too few and vulnerable, how do we offload some carrier aircraft missions to land bases in order to revise the carrier air wing? I'm not persuaded. I'm open to suggestions on making the air wing better (longer range) given that we have many big deck carriers. But I would slow down building them to reduce their numbers over time. We'll need them for power projection--different than sea control--for a long time. And power projection can take place against China after winning the sea control fight.

Time continues to fly by for me. It's July already! It will be snowing soon! Is the study valid? Dunno. Tip to Instapundit.

Huh. Decades ago I wrote a paper on the rise and fall of one-man grand juries in Michigan. They've been dormant for quite a long time, I thought. I had no idea the state of Michigan used them for the Flint water issue. I have no idea why it would use them. I did not--if memory serves me--cover the aspect that they failed on in court. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

The United States blacklisted 5 Chinese companies for helping Russia's military.

Much like Russia is determined to restore Ukraine to its empire, the proto-imperial European Union is persistent in trying to reel Britain back in. We'll see whether 10,000 armored vehicles or 10,000 entangling cheese regulations are more effective.

The U.S. will provide Ukraine with AMRAAM-based air defense systems.

The BBC seems to have restored its live coverage of Russia's invasion of Ukraine to its previous level.

A lot of jokes that end with the punch line "Is the Pope Catholic?" will need to be revised. I will never claim I am a practicing Catholic. I am divorced. But I don't demand my church bend its rules for me.

It looks like the price America paid for Turkey's acceptance of Finland and Sweden is an F-16 sale to Turkey. Well, we can't trust Erdogan with F-35s. And I do like keeping the F-16 production line open.

The Philippines is buying offshore patrol vessels to defend their territory in the South China Sea.

Progress to confront Iran: " Israel has joined a U.S. sponsored regional air defense network called MEAD (Middle East Air Defense Alliance). Israel is a vital component of MEAD, which includes other Middle East nations, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE that have purchased American air and missile defense systems[.]" 

Attacking Peking is futile: "If Taiwanese commanders want to put Yun Feng [cruise missiles] strikes to effective use, far better to target port infrastructure needed to support a PLA invasion fleet—piers, fuel facilities, ammunition supplies, and so forth—than to waste scarce rounds on such frivolities as attacking mainland cities."

I'm just going to note that refusing to exploit American oil deposits is a gift to Russia (Axis of One), Iran (Axis of Evil), and Venezuela (Axis of El Vil). Tip to Instapundit.

For the left, our governmental institutions and traditions are only useful if they back the left.

Does Russia's withdrawal from Snake Island mean Ukrainian agricultural exports can resume, reaching NATO waters to get through the Turkish straits? Or does Ukraine need to put air defense and anti-ship weapons there? Would Russia use its Mediterranean squadron to stop those ships if they make it that far?

Don't be ridiculous, you haters! This is good and justified racism! Tip to Treacher.

Is it shocking that when we chose to lose the war--while denying it--to the Taliban that we'd eventually pay them money? I guess ten months is a decent interval before admitting America lost the war.

The U.S., Japan, and South Korea agreed to work more closely together in the face of North Korea's nuclear missile threat. If the threat doesn't exist now, it will.

Iran simmers.

China has more territorial ambitions.

Xi Jinping tells Hong Kongers that only now under firm but brutal Chinese control do they have "true democracy." So shut up and enjoy.

Palestinian authorities "systematically torture" prisoners? No! Way! Take away their Queen of the Victims Prom tiara!

Science! "North Korea suggested Friday its COVID-19 outbreak began in people who had contact with balloons flown from South Korea[.]" 

Putin says NATO is pushing Belarus integration with Russia. That ship sailed. A Russian defeat in its invasion of Ukraine might undo all of that integration. 

I hear USC and UCLA are joining the Big Ten. How long before there are two ultra mega conferences--the Big $$ and the $EC--for all of college football?

That was then. This is now. It is amazing how many things we thought were true turn out not to be true. Exit question: Why does colonial power China get to use past control to justify present claims? 

Remember when it was horrible when a president (Trump) criticized an American government entity (the CIA) when abroad? I guess that is all okey dokey and patriotic now. Biden was hidden from the American people during the 2020 election. Now is when we need to hide him from foreign leaders.

Will Democrats again make an exception to the Senate filibuster rule just in time for Republicans to use it?

Sounds like insurrectionists, if you ask me. Their oath does not stipulate that it is null and void if your policy preferences aren't met. Conservative troops have sucked up their disappointments for decades. You people aren't special. 

LOL!


Still no indication that Ukraine is reoccupying Snake Island after driving the Russians out. Anything deployed there would be destroyed. No place to hide.

The most depressing thing in this article is that the Biden administration thinks it could score domestic political points by getting a new (horrible) nuclear deal with Iran. As if a deal is a good thing. Iran will get nukes with or without a deal, barring outside events. But with a deal the Iranian mullahs also get money.

More American military aid to Ukraine. Including larger NASAMS air defense systems and ammunition.

Should Canada be in the Axis of Evil? Tip to Instapundit.

Reaching out and touching someone: rockets become king.

Ukraine is getting more bang for the buck with its initial HIMARS to hit Russian command posts.

Russia continues to pound Lysychansk and make progress enveloping it. It won't be long before the troops fall back to another line of resistance.

How anybody can deny that the J6 Committee is a political show trial is beyond me. Via Instapundit.

I saw a picture of Russian troops with red arm and leg bands. Was the wisdom of white bands questioned?

We can't be dumb enough to let the Chinese communist bastards buy that property, right? Via Instapundit.

Even if Russia is wrecking its army, this Kargil-style attack on NATO would be within its capacity.

Is it art? No! It isn't even the flag of Japan. Modern art is rubbish that wealthy people pretend is art to distinguish their insight from the custodians who can't recognize brilliance.

Racism. White leftist racism is masked by a veneer of "caring". Via Instapundit.

"Just stop oil" is moronic. But oil paintings? Why not Hunter Biden's "art"? Via Instapundit.

Subsidies for homeless drug addicts; ignore criminal actions; and punish property owners. Enjoy. Via Instapundit.

Conservatives celebrate America without qualification. Leftists celebrate America when it obeys the Left.