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Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Stopping Iran's Final Solution

Israel practiced long-range strikes with an obvious eye on Iran's nuclear infrastructure. But that's not the only means of striking Iran. This won't end the Iran problem. But it does put off Iran's ability to end their problem with the "one-bomb" state of Israel.

This exercise at the beginning of the month is a signal to Iran and America:

The Israeli military said Wednesday that dozens of its aircraft conducted a drill simulating airstrikes on long-range targets, a thinly veiled reference to a possible attack on regional rival Iran.

With the Biden administration bizarrely determined to make mullah-run Iran its best buddy through a revised Iran nuclear deal, Israel must prepare for the worst despite having too few aerial refueling tankers to launch a large enough strike package from Israel to strike Iran:

More than a decade ago, I read that Israel needed the equivalent of 100 aircraft sorties to launch a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities with a hope of success. But Israel couldn't put 100 sorties over Iran at once.

So I looked at ways to reach 100 strike sorties without 100 aircraft

And I added to my speculation a few years later.

Basically, if America had too few tankers for a critical mission we'd probably buy more tankers. But Israel isn't nearly as rich. Although given the importance of preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons, that could be a high priority nonetheless.

Israel is now seeking more aerial refueling tankers.

The fact that Israel says it still lacks sufficient aerial refueling capabilities could very well mean that Israel has in fact thought outside the box as I did. And no doubt infinitely better.

Israel also has more options now, including better bombs, cyber capabilities, local assets inside Iran, and anti-Iran allies in the Persian Gulf.

So Israel must have ways to carry out a sufficiently powerful strike if the threat is existential.

Note that "dozens" of aircraft in the exercise doesn't seem to reach close to 100 combat sorties. Although perhaps Israel thinks it can carry out 100 strike sorties over time rather than all at once which exploits the element of surprise and minimizes Iran's ability to use their air defenses.

In addition, people are so used to Israel striking Iranian targets inside Syria that Israel has bought time for a strike package crossing Syria to hit Iran itself. Especially if  part of the strike package actually bombs targets inside Syria and loudly returns to Israel.

Have no doubt, Iran wants nukes:

On June 8 the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a resolution calling on Iran to explain traces of uranium that it found at three undisclosed sites of nuclear activity. Hours before the IAEA vote, Iran disconnected security cameras from one of its declared nuclear sites. Then Iran began taking down IAEA cameras throughout its territory. The world's nuclear watchdog is flying blind. 

And Lord knows what Iran has been doing in facilities that have never had cameras:

One condition of the 2015 treaty was to let the IAEA visit Parchin before the end of 2015. The facilities IAEA wanted to inspect were all destroyed or modified and much material removed before the inspectors finally arrived. 

Meanwhile there were new underground facilities being built at Parchin that the inspectors were not allowed near.

Yet some pretend the deal is the key to preventing Iran from going nuclear. Amazing.

Ultimately, bombing Iran's nuclear facilities only delays Iran's threats. The solution is to end the problem of nutball mullahs running Iran. Actually, if Iranians could remove the mullah regime, many problems would have a chance of being solved.

Anyway, have a super sparkly day.

NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.